How do Chinese analysts view speculations of Trump visiting Beijing in September?

Indian Express

4 days ago

Long-time China watchers and foreign affairs experts know that reports of Chinese leaders travelling abroad or a foreign leader visiting Beijing are only confirmed when they come from China's state-run Xinhua news agency.
Since rumours of US President Donald Trump being invited to attend a September 3 military parade in Beijing first appeared in the media nearly a month ago, Xinhua has neither denied nor confirmed them. According to reports published in China, Japan's Kyodo News Agency first reported on a possible visit.
The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson denied having 'any information on the matter' on June 30. However, the speculations resurfaced after Moscow confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend the event on July 21. A Reuters story ('Trump may travel to China to meet Xi in 'not-too-distant' future') on July 22 said Trump was likely to attend the ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War 2.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had said that Russia was also open to discussing the possibility of holding talks between Putin and Trump, should the latter visit Beijing. Amid speculations of a potential high-level meeting involving Putin, Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, London's The Times newspaper also reported that Beijing may be positioning itself to host a trilateral summit.
What has also fuelled the rumours are comments from Trump in January, when he was sworn in as President for the second time, and after he spoke with Xi in June amid the tariff war, about his interest in visiting China shortly.
China's media landscape differs from most countries, as the Chinese Communist government exerts significant control over news outlets. While the internet also has restrictions, discussions on online forums and websites still help get an idea of Chinese perspectives.
Recently, some scholars and strategic affairs analysts in China weighed in on Trump's potential visit in September:
*First, it is seen as necessary for the leaders of China and the United States to sit down and exchange their views on the bilateral relationship and their ideas on the evolving world order. This comes amid turmoil in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as important recent issues in the bilateral ties, such as tariffs.
*Second, the military parade is also a means for China to display and project its military strength to the outside world. It may make Trump re-evaluate the relative capabilities gap between the countries and could be more conducive to the future development of the two countries, some Chinese scholars have said.
*Third, China has formally called the event the 80th anniversary of the 'War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression' in recent years. It could help enhance the status and role of China's wartime endeavours in World War 2 (called the 'World Anti-fascist War').
An article penned under a popular Chinese social media blog account, Fox Condolence, and re-circulated by the digital news platform guancha.com, recently wrote: 'If Trump can also come, there will be a historic scene of China, the United States and Russia celebrating the victory of the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression together. This is the first time in 80 years since the war, and it will be held in Beijing. This will undoubtedly greatly enhance China's influence in the world.'
*Fourth is the view that calling Trump may be necessary, since he has not held in-person meetings with Putin and Xi since July 2018 and November 2019, respectively. Two weeks ago, in an interview with a Chinese news daily, Professor Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director at the Centre for China and Globalization (CCG) in Beijing, claimed to be the first in China to propose that Trump be invited in September. His main reason was, 'Trump is a short-term phenomenon in US politics, China must try and keep him [Trump] in good humour.'
As soon as the Japanese media broke the news of Trump's possible visit, the political elite and media in the United States began to warn the President against it. Chinese scholars have also made a note of these views:
*First, there is a view in the US that China's invitation to Trump is a calculated effort to present the country as America's equal on the global stage. Vincent C. Chen, a senior executive in Taiwan's information and communications technology industry, wrote in The Hill that the visit may attempt to convey a vision of 'co-governance of the world.'
*Second, he argued that the parade was not a symbol of peace, nor was it aimed at merely commemorating a historic victory. 'It is a deliberate display of military strength, to project the narrative of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) superiority and signaling strategic rivalry with the U.S.', Chen wrote.
*Third is the view that the visit would actually help enhance China's role in the war. Writing in Mandarin for the German news agency, Deutsche Welle, a well-known Chinese political affairs commentator, Deng Yuwen, wrote: 'In the Western narrative, China's eight-year war of resistance and huge sacrifices were not crucial to defeating fascism… China has always wanted to reverse the Western-dominated narrative framework of World War II history, but the effect is not obvious.'
*Fourth, while analysing reactions in both China and in the US to Beijing's possible invitation to Trump, Singapore-based digital political weekly, ThinkChina, observed: 'Trump sharing the stage with the leaders of two authoritarian states – in the eyes of the West – would trigger strong domestic backlash. Criticism would not come just from the Democrats, but also from the China hawks within the Republican Party. Going against the bipartisan consensus on containing China could come at a political cost for Trump.'
Chinese analysts also struck a note of caution, noting that the Communist Party must consider the leaders of the Global South countries, who would likely be invited to the parade as well. As Deng Yuwen has pointed out, if Beijing treats Trump with higher courtesy, will they question China's narrative as an advocate of such countries? This may weaken its influence and appeal in the Global South, where it has made vast investments over the years.
Hemant Adlakha teaches Chinese at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. He is also Vice Chairperson and an Honorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS), Delhi.