Is AI about to replace your job? Here's what Microsoft found
Microsoft researchers have released a study identifying which occupations are most and least susceptible to being replaced by generative AI tools. The study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, analysed how frequently AI is used in various jobs and how successfully it performs within those roles.
According to the research, the team evaluated a dataset comprising 200,000 anonymised and privacy-scrubbed user interactions with Microsoft Bing Copilot. They used this data to generate an "AI applicability score" for different occupations, gauging how effectively AI is already being used and the likelihood of its future integration.
Desk jobs face higher AI applicability
The study found that jobs most vulnerable to automation involve tasks such as providing information and assistance, writing, teaching, and advising.
Occupations in this category include translators, historians, sales representatives, writers, authors, and customer service representatives.
In contrast, jobs with the lowest AI applicability scores tend to involve manual labour and physical tasks. These include heavy machinery and motorboat operators, housekeepers, roofers, massage therapists, and dishwashers.
As reported by Futurism, the researchers noted that lower-paying, labour-intensive occupations are significantly less likely to be automated when compared to those involving tasks that AI chatbots and large language models are capable of performing.
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AI's role in current work activities
Despite the high applicability scores in certain job categories, the researchers clarified that AI is not yet performing all work activities associated with any one occupation. According to Futurism, they stated that "our data do not indicate that AI is performing all of the work activities of any one occupation."
They further acknowledged that variability in how people use AI tools complicates the results.
"Different people use different LLMs for different purposes," the researchers explained, adding that this could lead to inconsistencies in how certain roles—such as historians, political scientists, and authors—are represented in the dataset.
Cautions on interpretation and economic implications
The Microsoft team advised caution when interpreting the potential economic impacts of AI on employment. As quoted by Futurism, they stated, "This would be a mistake, as our data do not include the downstream business impacts of new technology, which are very hard to predict and often counterintuitive."
They referenced the example of ATMs, which automated a key function of bank tellers but ultimately contributed to an increase in teller employment, as banks were able to open more branches.
Occupations most and least likely to be replaced by AI (according to Microsoft study)
Most likely to be replaced by AI
Least likely to be replaced by AI
Translators
Heavy machinery operators
Historians
Motorboat operators
Sales representatives
Housekeepers
Writers
Roofers
Authors
Massage therapists
Customer service representatives
Dishwashers
Executives' perspectives on AI-driven job cuts
Industry leaders have also expressed their views on AI's impact on jobs. According to Futurism, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently stated that some job categories could be "just like totally, totally gone," pointing to customer support roles as one example.
Elijah Clark, a CEO who advises businesses on AI, confirmed the trend, telling Futurism, "I've laid off employees myself because of AI," adding that CEOs are "extremely excited about the opportunities that AI brings."
Evolving technology and future job markets
The researchers concluded that the results represent only a "snapshot in time," and future developments in AI technology may alter the landscape further. As reported by Futurism, they stated, "Modernizing our understanding of workplace activities will be crucial as generative AI continues to change how work is done."
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