Ukraine drone attack a wake-up call for Australia
Mick Ryan: What it shows is that small and medium-sized countries can launch long-range strikes deep inside superpowers or major powers and hurt them. This is a fairly significant strike that was conducted with fairly cheap off-the-shelf componentry.
Samantha Donovan: Does it signal a change in the way warfare is conducted?
Mick Ryan: Well, it signals an evolution in how vulnerable military bases are in our home countries. It shows that we're no longer safe in our home countries and that anyone can take some drones off the shelf, fit some warheads to them and attack our bases, and Australia is not immune to that.
Samantha Donovan: What does Australia need to do to be better prepared for any drone attacks?
Mick Ryan: Well, firstly, it needs to weed itself off this approach where it buys small numbers of exquisite, expensive weapons that take decades to procure. It needs a balance of some of those and lots of cheap, simple drones that we can adapt very quickly. And secondly, we need to be able to defend our bases in Australia. We can't do that.
Samantha Donovan: And what's needed to defend Australian bases from drone attacks?
Mick Ryan: It'll be a mix of different things. Firstly, the sensors to just know they're there. Secondly, it'll need electronic warfare, a range of other hard-kill weapons, including drone interceptors, which the Ukrainians now are world's best practice in.
Samantha Donovan: Do we have any of those?
Mick Ryan: No, we don't.
Samantha Donovan: What's your understanding of how much damage the Ukraine drone attack has done to Russian assets?
Mick Ryan: Well, we have a saying in the military, first reports are always wrong. So, we'll wait and see exactly how it pans out over the next 24 hours. But it's clear that it's certainly damaged or destroyed a significant number of Russian large aircraft, bombers and early warning aircraft, but the exact number we probably won't know for some time.
Samantha Donovan: So, ceasefire talks are about to begin in Turkiye, we understand. What message do you think Ukraine is sending ahead of those talks?
Mick Ryan: Well, it was sending a message to the Russians, firstly, that it's not only the Russians that can undertake large-scale strikes within the country of their enemy. It's also sending the message that unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians target military targets, not civilian targets. So, I think they're important messages to send. But finally, the Ukrainians are messaging to the Americans that a Russian victory is not inevitable and they shouldn't believe Russian misinformation, as seems to be the case at times.
Samantha Donovan: Do you think it'll make any difference in Vladimir Putin's attitude to these ceasefire negotiations?
Mick Ryan: I don't think it'll change his calculus. Ukrainians have been hitting Russian oil refineries, munitions depots and other airfields for quite some time now. Putin appears determined, regardless of the cost, to pursue what he's after in this war, which is to extinguish the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Samantha Donovan: And of course, this isn't all one way either. There was a significant attack by Russia on Ukraine. What happened there in the last couple of days?
Mick Ryan: Well, last night we saw the biggest attack by Russia on Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Last weekend we saw very significant 300-plus drone attacks. Last night was over 400 drones. So, you know, the Russians are not stepping back. They are stepping up their attacks on Ukraine in the hope that they can terrorise Ukrainians into submission and convince the Americans that all hope is lost with Ukraine. That's just not the case.
Samantha Donovan: Moving away from that conflict, may I get your reaction to Pete Hegseth, the US Defence Secretary, calling for Australia to increase its defence spending to 3.5% of GDP?
Mick Ryan: Well, we've known this has been coming for some time. I mean, he gave a speech in Munich that should have been read pretty clearly across the other side of the world that we were going to get these demands from America. But he's saying nothing. That Australian defence experts, including myself, haven't been saying for many years 2% of GDP is not enough for Australia's defence. In fact, the way it's being spent at the moment, overwhelmingly on nuclear-powered submarines, is compromising the readiness of the rest of the ADF. We need to be at least at 3%, potentially 3.5%.
Samantha Donovan: Mick Ryan is a retired Australian Army Major General and a Senior Fellow for Military Studies at the Lowy Institute.
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