Tory complaints miss the mark
For the past number of weeks, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew has been criticized by the Progressive Conservatives and some in the media for delaying the byelection call in the Spruce Woods constituency. More recently, he has also been attacked for a series of spending commitments for initiatives in and around that riding.
The complaints are unwarranted for several reasons, beginning with the fact that the premier is not breaching any elections law, rule or regulation by taking his time to set the date for the byelection.
Under Manitoba's Elections Act, the contest must occur within six months of the seat becoming vacant. Former Spruce Woods MLA Grant Jackson resigned on March 24, which means the byelection must be held by Sept. 24. That's still more than two months away.
Tim Smith / The Brandon Sun
Premier Wab Kinew reacts while sparring with a reporter over the vacant Spruce Woods riding seat after an announcement at Brandon University's Brodie Science Centre.
The law also requires that election campaigns must be no shorter than 28 days and no longer than 32 days. As such, Kinew must call the Spruce Woods byelection on or before Aug. 27. In other words, he still has several weeks before being obligated to drop the byelection writ.
The six-month period may seem unreasonable — some might say opportunistic — but it exists for a reason. It takes time for political parties to recruit credible candidates to seek a nomination, for parties to hold nomination contests and meetings, to build campaign teams, raise funds and do all the door knocking that is required. Six months is a reasonable period of time to get all that done.
Beyond that reality, the Tories are also holding Kinew to a different standard than they adhered to when they were in government. In 2022, former premier Heather Stefanson took 152 days to call a byelection in the Thompson riding, and took even longer — 162 days — to call a byelection in Winnipeg's Kirkfield Park riding.
On the issue of pre-writ spending, the Tories argue that the government is abusing its authority. In the past three months, Kinew and/or members of his cabinet have made at least six appearances in and around the Spruce Woods riding (which includes the northern portion of Brandon), where they have announced or reannounced more than $330 million in provincial funding for various local initiatives.
That includes $120 million in funding and financing for Assiniboine College, $189 million for road and bridge repairs in Westman and $3.3 million for renovations to Brandon University's aging science building. Last week, Kinew also announced that his government is doubling the number of students training to be doctors in Brandon from 10 to 20.
The flurry of announcements has irked the Tories, but previous Manitoba PC governments were just as guilty of engaging in targeted spending sprees prior to byelections.
That said, are the Tories seriously suggesting that the government should not be investing all that money in Westman on roads, bridges, health care and post-secondary education? It would be political suicide to articulate that precise argument to voters, and yet that is the implication of their grievance.
Perhaps the greatest flaw in the Tories' complaints regarding the Kinew government's flurry of promises is the likelihood that all that spending won't change which party's candidate wins the Spruce Woods byelection.
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Since its creation in 2011, the riding has always been represented by a Progressive Conservative MLA, who has always been elected by a huge margin. In the 2023 provincial election, Jackson received more than 61 per cent of the votes cast, and that was the lowest percentage for a Tory candidate since the riding came into existence. The NDP candidate received just 24 per cent.
Given that history, does Kinew honestly think his NDP team can win what has consistently been one of the province's safest Tory seats?
Pundits asked that same question in the context of Winnipeg's Tuxedo riding until the NDP won it in a byelection last year. With the recent rash of promises, the premier is attempting to buy himself a chance of repeating that achievement in Spruce Woods.
The odds are seriously stacked against him, but he lacks for neither confidence nor optimism. At a minimum, he's made the Spruce Woods byelection much more interesting than expected — and the Tories are getting nervous.
Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross
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