The Liberal Party faces electoral mountain, but there is one bright spot for Sussan Ley

Sydney Morning Herald

20-07-2025

But after Liberal MPs were swept aside across the country and Labor kept and added seats, it's time for the opposition to realise the prime minister has more than a little political nous. The electoral scoreboard is simply not wrong.
The most important numbers – primary vote and two-party preferred – are horrendous, yet the poll reveals some upsides for Ley.
Of all the parties and MPs, including Albanese, she has the highest net likeability rating at plus 11. The PM is at plus four (although in February, he was at negative 16).
The Liberal and National parties are in positive territory, if well short of Labor.
In terms of performance, 57 per cent of those surveyed in Resolve's pre-election poll rated Peter Dutton as poor. Ley has repaired that to 'just' 29 per cent, although with a third undecided.
That's a base from which to mount the recovery mission that a slim majority of the Liberal Party has given Ley and her deputy Ted O'Brien.
Another key aspect of the poll is the attitude of voters to how the Coalition should act in opposition. When Albanese complained about Peter Dutton's 'relentless negativity', it resonated with voters.
That's what they saw and felt about the Coalition under the former leader.
The Resolve poll shows a clear majority of all voters – including most Coalition supporters – believe the Liberal and National parties should work with the government to negotiate changes and form a consensus.
A knee-jerk 'no' to anything and everything is unlikely to woo back voters.
As the Coalition starts sketching the outlines of a credible return to power this side of 2034, the poll also should give Albanese some pause about how he proceeds.
His extraordinary victory was built on an extraordinarily low primary vote. Resolve shows it still about the 35 per cent mark with even more voters – 36 per cent – backing anyone bar Labor or the Coalition.
In every policy area, from health care to dealing with crime, Labor is now ahead of the Coalition. In February, the government trailed the Coalition on 17 of those 18 policy issues.
Just on economic management, Labor was 17 points behind the Coalition six months ago. Now it shades the opposition by two points.
Voters' attitudes hardened as the full force of an election campaign focused on Dutton, his less-than-stellar frontbench and their paucity of a policy offering. It was a contest that voters judged in Albanese's favour – but that was almost three months ago.
A policy-free Coalition and that huge majority in the House of Representatives mean the focus is now squarely back on Albanese.
Issues such as Donald Trump or the government's tone-deaf response to the ecological disaster playing out on South Australian beaches require a firm prime ministerial hand.
Having announced a three-day economic policy love-in for next month, he will have to take carriage of potentially difficult policy arguments.
The Resolve poll shows Albanese in the ascendancy and Ley looking over her shoulder. But it doesn't take much for a prize chook to become Sunday's roast.