SNP is using devolution for its lazy politics of divide and rule
F or neither the first nor, I fear, the last time, today's text comes courtesy of Wilkins Micawber. The relationship between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom in the devolved era is one in which, as far as the Scots are concerned, our friends in the south provide the standard by which satisfaction or contentment in north Britain may be measured.
As dear old Micawber sagely observed in David Copperfield, 'Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds nought and six, result misery.' Translate this into our politics and we may come up with a useful rule of thumb decreeing that if a policy or outcome is sixpence or half an ounce more agreeable in Scotland than in England then joy may be unconfined across the land. Should it be so very marginally worse than the way in which affairs are organised south of the border then misery and woe sweeps the land.
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The Guardian
6 hours ago
- The Guardian
‘It breaks my heart': how a refinery closure is hitting jobs and politics
Every morning in Grangemouth, chemists at Celtic Renewables's small factory feed a vial of microbes with a precisely tailored cocktail of food – liquid residues from the scotch whisky industry. In vessels surrounded by a web of metal pipes and gleaming stainless steel valves, the microbes multiply into something other than drink: a starter solution for batches of acetone, butanol and ethanol – chemicals essential for countless everyday products. Celtic Renewables wants more: a plant 10 times its current size. That could form part of plans to sustain Scotland's chemicals industry after Grangemouth sustained a crushing blow: the closure of the 100-year-old refinery in April, with the loss of 400 jobs. The huge complex will be reduced to a fuel import terminal, staffed by only 75 people. As many as 4,600 jobs in the refinery's supply chain could also be affected. That closure has made Grangemouth one of the earliest tests of a 'just transition': the idea that the economy can move relatively painlessly from fossil fuels to net zero, helped along by judicious government interventions to spur new jobs in place of the old. The Labour government fears that failure could mean voters turn their backs on it – and on the pledge to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 – throughout what remains of Scotland's largely fossil fuel-dependent industry. Climate action by government remains popular in Britain, but parties on the right, and particularly Nigel Farage's Reform UK, believe opposition to net zero can win them power. As the government this week unveiled a new industrial strategy, this article – the second in a series on the battle for Britain's deindustrialised areas – looks at the future for one of Scotland's industrial icons. After the second world war, deindustrialisation wiped out much of the coal mining, shipbuilding and steelmaking that dominated employment in Scotland's central belt from Glasgow to Edinburgh. While those industries all but disappeared, Grangemouth held out, refining crude oil to feed Scotland's cars and planes taking off from Edinburgh and Glasgow. Grangemouth's refinery traces its history back to 1924, making it the second oldest in Europe, but since 2005 it has been part of Jim Ratcliffe's Ineos chemicals empire. Ratcliffe's investments bolted together assets that others did not want, and generated huge profits. Ineos agreed a deal in 2011 for Chinese state-owned PetroChina to partner in a joint venture, Petroineos. Petroineos executives argued in Scottish parliamentary hearings that Grangemouth was not able to compete with newer, more efficient plants in the Middle East and Africa. UK chemicals output has slumped 42% since peaking in March 2020, according to the Office for National Statistics. Ratcliffe has faced significant criticism for cutting jobs in chemicals and at Manchester United Football Club – which he took control of last year. But he has claimed that it was UK energy policy, not his decisions, that made Grangemouth unviable. Chemicals companies report UK energy costs are five times higher than in the US and well over double those in the EU, according to the Chemical Industries Association, a lobby group. Ratcliffe is also a staunch opponent of carbon taxes on businesses. 'We are witnessing the extinction of one of our major industries as chemical manufacture has the life squeezed out of it,' Ratcliffe told the Financial Times in January. Deindustrialising Britain achieves 'nothing for the environment,' he said. 'It merely shifts production and emissions elsewhere.' Cutting energy costs was the flagship measure of the government's industrial strategy, with exemptions for chemicals businesses for the costs of renewable energy programmes and discounts for levies to fund the grid. The measures did not include short-term help on driving down wholesale prices, the key complaint of big energy users. What do you do with a tangle of pipes, furnaces and crackers like the Grangemouth refinery? A Scottish government-funded study, known as Project Willow, described nine options for chemical industries that could happen on the site, including plastics recycling, making chemicals from wood, or – perhaps most ardently desired – making so-called sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Westminster has set aside £200m to support private sector investments at Grangemouth, plus £25m from the Scottish government, to support projects. Senior government sources said more money could be available if the right projects come up. Yet each of those options comes with a price tag, ranging from the relatively manageable (£15m for turning organic waste into methane, with up to 70 jobs) to the truly enormous (up to £2.1bn for a SAF plant, and 270 jobs). The transition does not feel pain-free in Grangemouth town centre, with the refinery chimneys visible from the end of the road. A pleasant park, rows of sandstone homes and later semi-detached houses evidence the prosperity of the early 1900s and the boom times of the 60s and 70s, but the town also has several areas counted among the 10% most deprived in Scotland. Manufacturing in 2023 accounted for 11.1% of jobs in the broader Falkirk council area. That compared with 6.9% across Scotland that year – down from 35% in 1951. Mohammad Saleem, the shopkeeper at Sweet Talk, is already feeling the effects of the refinery closure, and has cut back opening hours, with fewer workers passing through to grab chocolate or a paper on the way to work. 'Quiet,' is his description of business in recent months. 'It used to be good before corona. After corona, that's it. This time, lunchtime, you would see crowds. Now you don't see anybody.' 'It's a disgrace,' said another shopkeeper in the centre. 'But what can you do?' Marilyn McIlvaney, the secretary of the Kersiebank Community Project, a volunteer-run charity shop that runs a food bank, said they had seen more people under pressure in the weeks since the closure of the refinery. Redundant workers got a relatively generous 18 months of pay, but they are still tightening belts. 'They're cutting back,' she said. 'It's having a knock-on to the other businesses. It's getting worse. Food banks are queueing out the doors – some of them [users] are working.' The question now for workers is whether Project Willow jobs come through before they have to look elsewhere. Those hopes are looking increasingly forlorn, according to Cliff Bowen, who has worked at Grangemouth for 33 years, and is now a convener for Unite, a union. He argues that the political implications will be huge. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion 'All we asked for is another couple of years until these technologies come online,' Bowen said. 'It breaks my heart. Labour are done for a generation in this area.' Bowen, a lifelong Labour supporter whose anger is palpable, believes that Reform UK will benefit from the loss of jobs at Grangemouth, and throughout Scotland's oil and gas economy, because it appears to offer a chance for those businesses to continue to operate. 'They're talking sense when it comes to energy supply,' said Bowen. 'People are going to vote for that, regardless of the colour on their rosette.' Reform's support is notably strong in areas around other refineries: near Stanlow refinery it won the Runcorn Westminster byelection, while Reform is leading Westminster polls in each of the constituencies that host the UK's other refineries at Fawley in Hampshire, Pembroke in west Wales, and the plants at Humber and Lindsey in Lincolnshire. Richard Tice, the Reform deputy leader, said: 'Reform will scrap net zero which will enable lower energy costs and investment in the chemicals and refining industries, thus creating jobs and leading to the reopening of Grangemouth.' That prescription is not seen as realistic by industry experts, even if big subsidies were offered. It would also lead to continued UK carbon emissions: the refinery was responsible for more than a quarter of all Scotland's carbon. Yet the pledge may resonate with people struggling to find work. Labour managed a surprise victory in a Scottish parliamentary byelection earlier this month in Hamilton – leaving the Scottish National party (SNP) in second and Reform a close third. Yet Brian Leishman, who won Grangemouth back for Labour only last year in the Westminster general election, said the closure was a 'failure from the political class' – including Labour, after it failed to live up to a pre-election pledge by the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, to 'step in to save the jobs at the refinery'. The SNP is keen to win back an area it held for nearly a decade at Westminster, but also has limited room for manoeuvre because of its nearly two decades leading the Scottish government. Leishman argued that the government should take ownership stakes in return for Project Willow funding, to prevent the area being vulnerable to the whims of distant bosses in the future. He said that Labour needed to invest in Scotland if it wanted to hold on to its previous gains. 'If you give people good jobs, good life chances, that's now you get a second term,' he said. 'If you do the basics of government well and you improve people's living standards, you'll beat Reform.' Scottish Enterprise, the lead agency on Project Willow, is hopeful that some of the interest will translate into action soon. Jane Martin, the managing director for innovation and investment, said she was 'aware of the need for short-term wins to turn the narrative around'. The agency is working to triage projects, and work out which will be most likely to succeed. They are a mix of 'inside the fence' at the refinery, and others outside. 'Project Willow is a really important lever but we are not only focused on those technologies,' Martin said. 'We're not shutting anything down at this stage.' It does appear increasingly unlikely that a single employer will emerge to replace the refinery's jobs. One much vaunted possibility was an investment to produce SAF to meet the UK's mandate of 10% of all aviation fuel by 2030. However, Michael Liebreich, a clean energy expert, said SAF was still seen as too risky for investors. SAF production (either from biological sources or using green hydrogen) is still several times more expensive than refining oil into kerosene, and nobody has dared to make the huge investment needed without a cast-iron guarantee that the product will be bought. There does not appear to be much hope for a neat solution. The question now appears to be whether smaller projects can let the town retain a chemical industry. That could allow it to salvage something from the devastation of the refinery's closure – and prove whether a messy transition can also be just. 'We've got a redundant petrochemical facility that has land, utilities and access to great people, if we can be courageous,' said Mark Simmers, the chief executive of Celtic Renewables. 'And it does require bravery and courage, particularly for governments to say, 'We're going to create these low-carbon manufacturing jobs, and repurpose all that land and utilities and people to do something which is all about the future'. 'That then becomes an example for the world. So I really believe if people are brave and courageous and say 'let's do this', it will provide a blueprint for lots refineries in the UK and the world.'
The Herald Scotland
6 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
New SQA chief left previous role following child safety concerns
Mr Page began his career as a teacher before taking on multiple council roles as Director of Children's Services at Salford City Council and Chief Executive of Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council. He resigned as council boss in 2023 following a review which found that children were facing "significant harm" due to delayed responses. This came in the wake of the killing of six-year-old Arthur Labinjo-Hughes. Aruther was murdered in June 2020 by his stepmother, who was jailed along with Arthur's father. The SQA board selected Mr Page from a shortlist of candidates, and Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills Jenny Gilruth approved the appointment. A spokesperson for the SQA said: 'Nick Page chose to step down from his last role after a critical inspection. 'It was a principled decision to allow fresh leadership to take improvements forward. 'The SQA board carried out full due diligence and was unanimous in its selection. Nick was also the unanimous choice of the SQA staff panel, which interviewed all candidates.' In February, the former SQA Chief Executive Fiona Robertson stepped down following a series of high-profile controversies dating back to 2020. With her resignation, the SQA divided the leadership responsibilities between the Chief Executive and the newly created post of Chief Examining Officer, held by Donna Stewart. With Mr Page's appointment, there are now teachers in both of the top roles at the SQA. Following its passage in Holyrood on Wednesday, the Education (Scotland) Bill will establish a new qualifications body called Qualifications Scotland, pending royal assent. Staff and officers are expected to carry over to Qualifications Scotland when it assumes responsibilities in December. Mr Page said that he was "honoured" to oversee the transition. 'The passage of the Education (Scotland) Bill challenges us all to make reform a success – and we will deliver. 'SQA is already transforming at pace to build strong foundations for Qualifications Scotland, harnessing the deep knowledge, skills and commitment of our people. We will accelerate that work to deliver a future that improves outcomes and supports learning and teaching. 'As a former teacher from a family of teachers, I am keenly aware of the challenges faced in classrooms, colleges and across the education community, especially since the pandemic." Read more He added that the SQA's new Schools Unit, led by headteacher Sarah Brown as Senior Adviser, will be crucial for achieving the new organisation's goal of amplifying the voices of teachers and students. "We will also work across the education and skills community to ensure that assessment and awarding align with wider pathways for success. 'By building new partnerships with industry and employers, we will strengthen the relevance and range of our skills-based and vocational qualifications to unlock opportunities for learners. That will help support Scotland with the skills our country needs to succeed in a rapidly changing world. 'I look forward to bringing my experience – and the lessons I have learned – to my new role. I want to begin by thanking my new colleagues, who have demonstrated great professionalism and successfully delivered over these past years of challenge and uncertainty." Nick Page will take over as chief executive of the SQA in July and Qualifications Scotland when the new organisation takes over in December. (Image: SQA) SQA Board Chair Shirley Rogers said that Mr Page was chosen because of his mixture of experience in the classroom and public service. 'I am absolutely delighted that Nick has chosen to join us. His career spans many achievements and a proven ability to lead through both change and challenge. 'I am confident that, drawing on these experiences and a commitment to learning from them, Nick will drive the positive transformation that ensures Qualifications Scotland delivers for every learner, every educator, and every community." The transition to Qualifications Scotland will be one of the final steps in a process that began in 2021 when former Education Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville announced that the SQA would be scrapped. Over the next four years, the Scottish Government spent over £1 million commissioning a series of independent reviews into qualifications and assessments. However, the Education (Scotland) Bill and its vision of Qualifications Scotland has received a lukewarm response from opposition parties, teachers and the chief researchers who had recommended the SQA's replacement in the first place. The EIS teaching union called the bill an "opportunity missed" for reform, while Professor Ken Muir, who carried out the original review for replacing the SQA, said it was "disappointing" that the bill preserves many of the major shortcomings he identified in the SQA's structure.
The Herald Scotland
7 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Aberdeenshire Tory civil war reaches breaking point
She became a Tory party agent when she was 19, moved to London and worked for Theresa May for nine years. READ MORE When she moved to Scotland she became the party's North East area manager and the agent for Douglas Ross. In 2007, she was elected to Aberdeenshire Council, eventually leading the Tory led administration. Now, she's one of a growing band of independents in the authority. Her shock resignation last week follows months of drama. She had been under pressure since a colleague leaked a screengrab of a WhatsApp message in which she called her fellow Tory councillors 'f****** b*******s' to the press. The situation was not helped when her husband, Steve, allegedly told a grandmother to 'p**s off' at a nursery protest. Mrs Owen denied her husband had sworn, telling the Press and Journal that the confrontation was sparked when the protesting pensioner 'violently shook a tambourine' at them. There was also a 'horrible' insult about a councillor from another party in a separate group chat. Details of exactly what Cllr Owen said remain private, but her apology was public. She told her rival they had every right to feel 'upset, angry and disgusted' at her 'callous and insensitive' comment. 'I want to sincerely apologise,' Cllr Owen wrote, calling the outburst a 'complete lapse in judgment' that did not reflect her true values or respect for the colleague. 'I do deeply regret this, and I am so very sorry,' she added. She said she made the decision to resign on Wednesday after receiving an email from a Tory colleague. It is not clear what was said — but it was the final straw. Douglas Ross and Gillian Owen (Image: Facebook) 'That finished me off. And I thought, now I'm not doing this anymore. I've just decided that the time had come for us to part ways, sadly. But now I'm just going to move on. That's what I want to try and do.' Ms Owen insists she is not defecting to Reform UK. 'I'm not crossing the floor or joining another party. People elected me as a Conservative, and I respect that. But judging by the emails I've had, some people might support me more now that I'm not in the party. I want to make it clear I'm not joining Reform — I've no intention of doing that.' That makes her an oddity among ex-Tory councillors in the North East, where five of her former colleagues are now in Nigel Farage's party. Former Aberdeenshire Council chief Mark Findlater and Mearns councillor Laurie Carnie joined last year. Ellon's John Crawley and East Garioch's Dominic Lonchay soon followed. Lauren Knight made the switch just two weeks ago. In fact, of the dozen ex-Tory councillors in Reform's ranks Scotland-wide, more than a third are in Aberdeenshire. There are some Reform-adjacent former Tories in the authority too. Robbie Withey quit the party to sit as an independent but is a supporter of Reform. Is this just Aberdeenshire — or a glimpse of the brutal civil war that could erupt within Tory ranks across Scotland as the threat from Reform looms larger? Nigel Farage's party has a strong ground game in the North East, particularly around Fraserburgh, where they are winning over disgruntled Conservatives and unhappy SNP voters. Last week's large-scale MRP poll by YouGov had them winning their highest vote share in Scotland in the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East constituency, second behind the SNP. The poll showed them 10 points ahead of the Tories in a seat which Douglas Ross lost by just 942 votes at last year's election. The same poll had Reform winning three seats at the next general election, and coming second in a slew of others. How do the Tories tackle this insurgency? Well, if Aberdeenshire is any guide, they will be hoping to fall back on the constitution. Last month, Ms Owen announced she was standing down as leader of the council's ruling Tory, LibDem and independent coalition, triggering a vote for new joint leaders. The SNP nominated Gwyneth Petrie for leader. Although she was defeated by 36 votes to 28, the split with the Tories is now so bitter that on Thursday the five Reform councillors backed the independence supporting councillor from Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford. READ MORE The Scottish Tories were cock-a-hoop. North East Tory MSP Douglas Lumsden was almost floating. 'Nigel Farage has already said he would be happy to let the SNP into power. Now we know for sure Reform candidates will vote for the Nationalists, while the Conservatives will keep the SNP out.' Following the vote, Reform councillor Laurie Carnie defended the support for John Swinney's party, telling local press: 'Obviously we're Unionists, but we just don't agree with the way the administration has conducted itself.' Gillian Owen's departure may seem like a local spat. Yet it is hard not to see in it something larger: a party fraying at the edges, struggling to hold the line as old loyalties snap and new alliances form.
