Trump India tariff: Can the Indian stock market sustain against the sell-off storm? Explained with five reasons
The only good news for the Indian stock market investors is that the Nifty 50 index is sustaining above the crucial 24,500 support, and buying is around 24,600. This has triggered speculation about whether the Indian stock market will be able to show resilience against Trump's tariffs and witness a trend reversal in the near term.
According to stock market experts, Dalal Street has witnessed selling post-imposition of Trump's tariff on India, but this selling failed to rattle the market sentiments as the key benchmark indices are sustaining above their crucial supports. They said that selling was expected as Trump's tariff would hit Indian exports by around $33 billion, but this won't have much impact on the Indian market sentiments.
On how Trump's tariff on India will impact New Delhi, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said, "The US is India's largest export destination, contributing around 2.2% to the nation's GDP in 2024. As such, the 25% tariff is likely to exert pressure on the domestic economy. However, the effect is forecast to be limited based on the scope of the tariff in other EMs, as currently India has a small edge over key competitors like China. However, the tariff on other EMs has been reduced lately, like in Vietnam, Indonesia, and South Korea. It is expected to impact areas like Engineering, Pharma, Energy, Textile and Jewellery sectors more."
Pointing towards the key takeaways for the Indian economy after Trump's tariff on India, Prashant Tandon, Executive Director — Global Investments at Waterfield Advisors, said, "We appear to be entering an era of re-globalisation—characterised by strategic integration, regional blocs, and trusted partnerships. Diverging markets illustrate this rebalancing, not disintegration. Investors should anticipate greater dispersion across geographies and sectors. Potential opportunities for supply chain resilience and infrastructure may arise, domestic industrial leaders benefiting from supportive policies, and companies focused regionally or aligned geopolitically."
"The Indian stock market has shown notable resilience even after former US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff proposal on certain Indian exports. Many expected this move to rattle investor sentiment, but the markets remained steady. In my view, there are a few important reasons behind this reaction," said Gaurav Goel, Founder & Director at Fynocrat Technologies.
On why the Indian stock market didn't overreact to Trump's tariff on India, Gaurav Goel of Fynocrat Technologies listed out the following five reasons:
1] Trump's timing: Trump's tariff announcement came just before the expected August 1 deadline, which gives the impression that it was more of a strategic warning shot than a final decision. The message seems to increase pressure on India to negotiate more favourable trade terms. Trump also clarified that talks with India are ongoing, giving markets hope that this may not result in a full-fledged trade blow.
2] India-US trade deal still on: American delegates are scheduled to visit New Delhi on August 25 for trade discussions. This indicates that there is still room for resolution. Investors believe that both sides will come to the table and work out a deal. Until the outcome is clear, markets are likely to avoid overreacting.
3] DIIs support: Another big reason for resilience is the strong support from domestic institutional investors (DIIs). On July 31 alone, DIIs were net buyers of ₹ 6,372 crore. Consistent buying cushions against external shocks reflects confidence in the Indian economy's strength.
4] Discounted Indian markets: It's important to note that this tariff issue has been stretched for quite some time. Markets typically react sharply to sudden, unexpected news, but in this case, the risk has been lingering for weeks. As a result, investors have already priced in much of the uncertainty. The market's sensitivity has naturally reduced since it's no longer a surprise.
5] Growth theme still intact: Explaining the impact of Trump's tariff on the national economy, Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securitieis, said, 'In the current economic scenario, Trump's tariffs are expected to bring down the Indian GDP growth by arouond 30 bps, which can be mitigated with the domestic demand. The 25% tariff imposed by the US administration will have a limited impact on the key sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, automobiles, and gems and jewellery.'
"Investors are expected to switch money from companies with exposure in US exports and look at domestic-oriented segments like banks, FMCG, Infrastructure, etc. Investors are expected to switch money from pure auto stocks to EV and auto ancillary stocks. So, we expect limited impact of Trump's tariffs on the Indian stock market as investors have already discounted the event much ahead of Donald Trump's announcement," said Seema Srivastava, who is a professional CA also.
Contrary to widespread expectations and dashing New Delhi's hopes of a relatively better trade deal, US President Donald Trumpannounced a 25 per cent tariff on "friend" India on July 30, to be effective August 1. The 25 per cent tariff excludes a penalty due to India's energy and defence ties with Russia.
Trump accused India of imposing higher tariffs on US imports and also having the "most strenuous" trade barriers.
'While India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the world, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers of any country,' Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
3 Indian warships in Philippines, 1 in war games with Singapore
. NEW DELHI: As part of the Navy's ongoing operational deployment to Southeast Asia with an eye firmly on China's aggressive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, three Indian warships have reached the Philippines while another is exercising with the Singapore Navy. The deployments of stealth frigate INS Satpura for the bilateral "Simbex" exercise with the Singapore Navy as well as guided-missile destroyer INS Delhi, anti-submarine warfare corvette INS Kiltan and fleet tanker INS Shakti to Manila "is a testimony to the Indian Navy's commitment to strengthen partnerships in the Indo-Pacific", according to officers. Leading the three warships in Manila, Eastern Fleet commander Rear Admiral Susheel Menon said India and the Philippines shared the commitment towards maintaining stability and enhancing maritime security in the region, emphasizing the importance of such deployments in promoting understanding, trust and cooperation among friendly maritime forces. The warships will undertake a bilateral naval exercise with the Philippines, which will focus on joint manoeuvres and communication protocols to improve preparedness, build mutual trust and strengthen operational synergy in the maritime domain. INS Satpura, in turn, is participating in the 32nd edition of the Simbex exercise, marking yet another chapter in the strong and enduring maritime partnership between the Indian Navy and the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN). "The exercise involves execution of a comprehensive array of advanced naval operations. These include air defence exercises, cross-deck helicopter operations, precision targeting with surface and aerial platforms, complex manoeuvring drills and VBSS (visit, board, search, and seizure) operations," an officer said. After the $375 million contract to supply three anti-ship coastal batteries of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines in Jan 2022, India has also stepped up discussions on arms exports to other Asean countries like Indonesia and Vietnam. Apart from Brahmos missiles, which have been developed jointly with Russia, India also plans to sell the indigenous Akash air defence missile systems, which can intercept hostile aircraft, helicopters, drones and subsonic cruise missiles at a range of 25 km, to countries like Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam.
The Hindu
an hour ago
- The Hindu
How will Trump's tariffs impact India?
The story so far: On July 30, U.S. President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from India 'plus a penalty'. While this puts to rest months of speculation over what the tariffs would be on Indian imports into the U.S., it opens up fresh uncertainties with respect to a potential bilateral trade agreement between India and the U.S. What did Mr. Trump announce? Taking to social media, Mr. Trump cited India's tariff and non-tariff measures on trade, and its dealing with Russia on energy and military equipment, as the main reasons behind imposing the 25% tariffs and the penalty. There is no clarity yet on what the penalty will look like, but Mr. Trump has in the past threatened a 10% additional tariff on BRICS countries. If this comes to pass, then effective tariffs on Indian imports would be 35%. There is also a legislation in the U.S. in the process of being passed that could see an additional 500% tariff on India, China, and Brazil for their dealings with Russia. What does it mean for India? Tariffs are paid by importers. Therefore, tariffs on Indian imports would be paid by those in the U.S. that are importing Indian goods. That is, Indian goods will become more expensive for them. Therein lies the true problem for India. On a macro level, the tariffs and the impact they will have on Indian exports are expected to only lower India's GDP by 0.2%, according to research by the Bank of Baroda. So, if India's growth forecast had been 6.6%, then these tariffs — if they are imposed — could lower growth to 6.4%. However, the issue arises in individual sectors. According to the Bank of Baroda, sectors such as garments, precious stones, auto parts, leather products, and electronics (although their inclusion is uncertain) could face the pinch and would have to rework their strategies. 'The issue really is that some of the competing nations like Vietnam (20%), Korea (15%) and Indonesia (19%) have lower tariffs compared with India,' the Bank of Baroda added in its research note. How did things come to such a pass? While most trade deals are negotiated over years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr. Trump in February 2025 announced that they would conclude the first tranche of a trade deal by fall. To put this in perspective, the recently-signed Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between India and the U.K. took about three years to negotiate. What made the announcement by Mr. Modi and Mr. Trump notable was that it came before the latter's big moves on reciprocal tariffs, which is what pushed other countries to start negotiating with the U.S. The announcement was thus a strong and positive commitment towards strengthening ties between the two countries. But then, on April 2, Mr. Trump announced his Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs. These included a 10% baseline tariff for all countries, and additional tariffs on a country-by-country case. For India, this total was 26%. However, just a week later, Mr. Trump announced a 90-day pause on these tariffs so that bilateral deals could be struck so as to reduce the U.S.'s trade deficit with most of its trading partners. The 90-day pause was to end in July, but Mr. Trump extended it to August 1. What are the points of friction? It's hard to pinpoint any single recent development that has soured relations, but there have been several points of friction between the two countries in the past few months. The matter of India's tariffs and non-tariff barriers has been something Mr. Trump has been highlighting since his first term as President. It was no surprise that he would take up the issue in his second term. Soured relations: The Hindu editorial on Trump's 25% tariff, 'penalty' Mr. Trump has brought up India's engagement with Russia, too, saying countries like India are partly financing Russia's war with Ukraine. India, however, has reiterated that it will secure its national and energy security, and if that means buying cheap Russian oil, then that is what it would do. Russia currently accounts for about 35-40% of India's oil imports, making it a significant partner. In addition, India has remained adamant about keeping core parts of its agriculture and dairy sectors out of trade deals, including with the U.S. This has upset negotiators on the U.S. side, but it is a 'red line' India will not cross. Opening up these sectors would expose India's relatively low-productivity farmers to global competition, which will likely have devastating impacts on their livelihoods. Then, there is the fact that Mr. Trump has repeatedly stated that it was him, and his trade talks, that encouraged India and Pakistan to agree to a ceasefire following the launch of Operation Sindoor by India. The fact that the Indian government has refuted it has only further angered Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump's claims have irked the Indian establishment as well, since it has provided the Opposition a means to attack the government. India has informed the World Trade Organization that it reserves the right to impose additional tariffs on imports from the U.S. to retaliate against its higher tariffs on items like steel, aluminium, and automobiles. Taking these things together, Mr. Trump's tariff announcement comes as a confirmation that at least one, if not all of these factors, worked toward souring relations. Will India continue paying these tariffs? Although there has been a lot of talk about a 'mini-deal' between India and the U.S. to walk back the reciprocal tariffs, Indian officials have been cagey about the date for such a deal. The tariff announcement by Mr. Trump confirms that such a deal is not coming. However, the two sides have been remarkably consistent about their commitment of having some sort of trade deal finalised by the fall 2025 deadline. So far, negotiators from the two sides have met in New Delhi and Washington five times, including the first meeting in March where the Terms of Reference for the negotiations were finalised. The team from the U.S. will visit India in late August to take forward the talks. Things have, however, become trickier for Indian negotiators because Mr. Trump has now directly linked India's dealings with Russia to India's trade relationship with the U.S. The tariffs will come into effect soon. According to an Executive Order dated July 31, Mr. Trump said that his duties on India and other countries would come into effect '7 days after the date of this order'. What about deals with other countries? Over the last month, Mr. Trump has concluded deals with the U.K., Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, the EU, and South Korea. The deal with the U.K. does not specify a general tariff level, but it will see British car exports to the U.S. attract a 10% tariff, down from the earlier 27.5% and a removal of tariffs on aerospace exports to the U.S. Japan negotiated lower tariffs of 15% for its exports to the U.S., the same as the EU.
Indian Express
2 hours ago
- Indian Express
Why US President Donald Trump's ‘dead economy' jibe at India fails to stand up to scrutiny
US President Donald Trump may have referred to India as a 'dead' economy, but the numbers tell a different story. While the Indian economy is expected to slow down in the current fiscal amid the global uncertainties and tariff wars, most recent projections by economists and international agencies paint a fairly bright picture since they see India as the fastest growing large economy in the world with a 6 per cent plus growth rate. Trump's aggressive stance against India in his social media posts has also exposed an inconsistency in America's stance and policy actions considering India and America have engaged together on several crucial initiatives, ranging from critical minerals, trade, defence and space after he took charge as the President in January. The most recent collaboration between India and the US was seen last week as the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) placed the NISAR satellite, a first-of-its-kind collaborative project between India and the US, into its intended orbit. NISAR, which stands for NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, is the most powerful Earth observation satellite to be put in space, the result of over one decade of research and development by the space agencies of India and the US. The collaboration is set to expand as ISRO is planning to launch the Block 2 BlueBird communications satellite, developed by the US-based AST SpaceMobile, over the course of next few months. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US in February, the two countries on several initiatives including the Transforming Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology (TRUST) initiative — a bilateral initiative for cooperation in the recovery and processing of critical minerals such as lithium and rare earth elements. It was seen as a step towards reducing barriers to technology transfer, addressing export controls, and enhancing high-tech commerce. The TRUST initiative followed India's induction into the US-led Minerals Security Finance Network in September last year. India had joined the Minerals Security Partnership in 2023. A move towards stronger trade ties was also discussed in detail during Modi's US visit, with the countries agreeing to double their bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. India's trade relationship with the US has already been strengthening. In 2024, the total goods trade between the two nations stood at $129.2 billion, with the US' exports to India rising 3.4 per cent to $41.8 billion, while its imports were up 4.5 per cent at $87.4 billion, resulting in a deficit of $45.7 billion for the US. India's rising exports of electronic goods, especially smartphones, to the US have been in focus. India's share in US' smartphone imports surged to nearly 36 per cent in the first five months of 2025, driven mainly by Apple's iPhones, from about 11 per cent in 2024. China, which continues to dominate the category, saw its share drop from 82 per cent to 49 per cent over the same period. Roughly 20 per cent of Apple's global iPhone production capacity is now based in India. Trump's often-cited charge against India has been of it being a 'Tariff King', and India in response has made a conscious effort to broadcast the message that it is not. In the Union Budget for 2025-26, presented in February, duties on the top 30 US goods imported by India, including crude oil, LNG, coal, diamonds, aeroplanes, and motor vehicles, were reduced. In the automobile sector, India lowered tariffs on motorcycles based on engine capacity. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has also highlighted the same, pointing out last month that India has reduced the tariff rates to eight, including the zero per cent rate. Modi and Trump had also agreed to renew the 10-year defence framework, with the American President having mentioned increasing military supplies to India and ultimately providing the F-35 stealth fighter. The two leaders had announced plans to pursue new procurements and co-production arrangements for Javelin anti-tank guided missiles and Stryker infantry combat vehicles and six additional P-8I maritime patrol aircraft. Earlier this month, an official statement said India and the US will sign a new 10-year defence partnership framework when Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his US counterpart, Pete Hegseth, meet later this year. While there are some downside risks to the Indian growth story from Trump's threat of a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods and a 'penalty' for its energy and arms imports from Russia, even a 20-40 bps decline in the growth rate to 6 per cent or so will not stop the economy from being the fastest growing large economy in the world. This is evident in the growth projections made by prominent global rating and multilateral agencies. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.4 per cent for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 after it had cut the projection for the current fiscal by 30 bps to 6.2 per cent in April. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also has predicted growth for FY26 to be stable at 6.5 per cent – the same as in the last fiscal. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry estimates growth to be in the range of 6.3-6.8 per cent, saying in its latest monthly economic review report that the economy presents a picture of 'cautious optimism' in the face of global headwinds marked by trade tensions, geopolitical volatility, and external uncertainties. To be sure, the Finance Ministry has flagged slow credit growth and the private sector's investment appetite as issues. But these hardly make an economy 'dead' — especially one which the IMF estimates as the fifth-largest in the world with a GDP of $3.9 trillion in 2024. And it's only going to get better — by 2028, the IMF expects India to overtake Germany and Japan and rise to the third spot, only behind the US and China. While Trump called both India and Russia as 'dead economies', the latter is a different animal altogether. Unlike India's, the Russian economy has suffered from its war against Ukraine, with GDP growth averaging 2.2 per cent from 2022 to 2024, per IMF. This is even lower than the US' average growth rate of 2.7 per cent over the same period. The figure for India, meanwhile, is 7.8 per cent. Trump's comments, the imposition of a 25 per cent tariff on India, and an as-yet unspecified penalty — even as officials from the two countries are negotiating a bilateral trade deal — is being viewed as Washington putting pressure on New Delhi to quickly come to an agreement. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has admitted as much, saying on Thursday that Trump and the American trade team were frustrated by the pace of talks with India. 'India came to the table early. They have been slow-rolling things, so I think that the President, the whole trade team is frustrated with them,' Bessent told CNBC. However, just like the US, India has a duty to its people and must get the best possible deal. As Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said in the Lok Sabha on Thursday, the government will take 'all necessary steps to secure our national interest'. Aanchal Magazine is Senior Assistant Editor with The Indian Express and reports on the macro economy and fiscal policy, with a special focus on economic science, labour trends, taxation and revenue metrics. With over 13 years of newsroom experience, she has also reported in detail on macroeconomic data such as trends and policy actions related to inflation, GDP growth and fiscal arithmetic. Interested in the history of her homeland, Kashmir, she likes to read about its culture and tradition in her spare time, along with trying to map the journeys of displacement from there. ... Read More Siddharth Upasani is a Deputy Associate Editor with The Indian Express. He reports primarily on data and the economy, looking for trends and changes in the former which paint a picture of the latter. Before The Indian Express, he worked at Moneycontrol and financial newswire Informist (previously called Cogencis). Outside of work, sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels keep him busy. ... Read More
