The Liberals are up in the polls but the public is betting on the Conservatives
Ottawa bureau chief Stuart Thomson talks to reporter Christopher Nardi about why bettors might be putting money on the Conservative party, despite national polls showing the party several points behind the Liberals.
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A recent Postmedia-Leger poll last week found that the Liberals are hanging onto the lead in the federal election with 43 per cent of support nationally, five points ahead of the Conservatives who are at 38 per cent support.
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But the sports betting site FanDuel, which carries odds for political events, says that 70 per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party, with only 28 per cent of bettors wagering on the Liberals. The company says that more than 80 per cent of the bets on the Conservatives were placed after March 25, when the election was underway and the Liberals were pulling away as favourites.
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Winnipeg Free Press
29 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
The clock is ticking on tariff negotiations
Opinion It's T minus one. As in, tariffs minus one. Or Trump minus one. Or maybe even TACO minus one. Only time — precious little time — will tell. ADRIAN WYLD / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Prime Minister Mark Carney On Aug. 1, the Trump administration has said its self-imposed range of tariffs on myriad foreign countries — including Canada — will come into effect. (Unless it turns out to be TACO minus one — U.S. President Donald Trump has backtracked so many times on announced tariffs that he's earned the nickname 'TACO,' an acronym for 'Trump Always Chickens Out.') For Canada, that would mean a 35 per cent tariff on products not detailed in the USMCA trade deal, as well as the continuation of tariffs on aluminum, steel and automobiles, and a new copper tariff that also would come into effect on Friday. Prime Minister Mark Carney has said the negotiations between Canada and the U.S. are in an 'intense phase.' Meanwhile, the Opposition Conservatives have complained that Canada is being left behind as others reach deals with the U.S. But at least two of those deals seem to be running into confusion and contrary claims — especially because they aren't on paper yet. Trump claimed that the government of Japan bought its way into lower tariffs — going from 25 per cent to 15 per cent — by agreeing to invest US$550 billion in the U.S., an investment that Trump says would see the U.S. government get 90 per cent of the profits. Japan says it made no such offer, that if anything, the suggestions was for 'up to' US$550 billion with no set amount, and that profits from any Japanese investment would be paid on a proportional basis, based on how much each party invested. Japanese officials have also said there is no written agreement, and that there would not be one based on Trump's terms. Meanwhile, a widely heralded deal with the European Union is also hitting the shoals of Trump exaggeration: numbers on the purchase of energy by EU member states have been questioned by the EU and it now appears that all EU members will vote on a prospective deal, while Trump characterized it as a historic complete package. The EU and the U.S. also have conflicting impressions about tariffs on pharmaceuticals, tariffs on steel and aluminum, investment in U.S. companies by the EU, and purchases of U.S. weapons. For example, the U.S. version is that the EU will buy U.S. weapons, while the EU says absolutely no such commitment was made — or could be made, as military procurement is determined by individual member countries. The U.S. also claims that the EU has promised to make a range of regulatory changes to benefit U.S. exports of food and agricultural products, along with changes to financial and tax barriers on digital industries. The EU says that's a hard no — 'We're not moving on our regulations. We're not moving on our rules. We're not moving on the system that we built up over many decades that our citizens trust,' Olaf Gill, the EU Commission's spokesperson for trade said. 'That will not form part of this agreement with the U.S.' Weekday Evenings Today's must-read stories and a roundup of the day's headlines, delivered every evening. So it's all clear as mud. And what happens next for Canada? We'll find out, perhaps, on Friday. But more than anything else, move slowly and deliberately and in a calculated way, don't get rushed into a bad deal, and keep in mind that any deal is open to President Trump's penchant for exaggeration and fabrication. And for his unmatched ability to fail to live up to a signed commitment. And that's for the short term. The long term? Find new global customers. Ones that can be counted on to make an honestly negotiated deal and stick to it.
2 hours ago
Ottawa's National Arts Centre cuts ties with controversial Chinese dance group
The National Arts Centre in Ottawa will not be hosting a controversial Chinese performance group next year, following internal deliberations about potential blowback the Crown corporation could face over allegations regarding Shen Yun's treatment of audience members with disabilities and a breach of previous contract terms, CBC News has learned. Emails released in an access to information request show the NAC was considering the move for months — during which time the centre heard from at least two MPs wondering about whether there would be a Shen Yun show in 2026. Based in New York, Shen Yun is closely affiliated with the Falun Gong (also known as Falun Dafa), a spiritual movement banned in China and long at odds with the country's ruling communist regime. In an email dated Jan. 13, Heather Gibson, the executive producer for the NAC's popular music and variety programming, reached out to the centre's CEO Christopher Deacon, as well as to Annabelle Cloutier, an executive director in strategy and communications, to recommend that we do not continue our relationship with Shen Yun in 2026 in light of continued issues with their organization respecting our contractual agreement, primarily with the box office. The Falun Gong spiritual movement is banned in China. Photo: The Canadian Press / Sean Kilpatrick She also alluded to allegations that continue to surface about the organization, without specifying details. That note followed reporting last year by The New York Times which alleged Shen Yun forced its troupe (new window) of young dancers through emotional abuse and long work hours while discouraging them from seeking treatment for injuries. The New York Times investigation also alleges Shen Yun raked in hundreds of millions of dollars (new window) over the last decade, including through unethical and potentially unlawful methods. In a reply to Gibson, Deacon said he saw Shen Yun's future with the NAC as a programming decision to be made at her discretion. I appreciate and respect that, but it's not going to be (only) me who is dealing with the potential issues this may cause in media, phone-calling campaigns, meeting requests to your office, etc., Gibson wrote in response. In the past when we have moved forward with this, the CEO eventually overrode our decision. Which I also respect, but it has made it difficult to conceive of this as a programming decision alone. Deacon replied that he supports Gibson's decision. In February, Liberal MP Judy Sgro wrote to an NAC producer saying she had been contacted by the Falun Dafa Association of Canada and requested a thorough explanation as to why [Shen Yun] would not be able to secure dates. A month later, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis wrote to Deacon over his concern regarding the prolonged delay in the scheduling of Shen Yun's 2026 performance dates. Enlarge image (new window) The National Arts Centre, seen here in 2020, has rented its performance spaces for use by Shen Yun for years. Photo: The Canadian Press / Adrian Wyld Genuis noted the Falun Dafa community has had a nearly two-decade-long run with the NAC as a presenter of their show. Recent efforts by the CCP [Communist Party of China] to transnationally repress and discredit the Shen Yun performances and undermine the efficacy of Falun Gong practitioners in their attempts to share the story of a pre-communist China in these rich performances are extremely concerning, he wrote. The importance of preserving their artistic freedoms here in Canada is all the greater given the severe lack of protections that their group experiences in China. NAC staff complaints Shen Yun last performed at the NAC in late April. On April 28, Gibson asked colleagues in an email about whether Shen Yun should return in 2026. I have received some unsettling information informally, she said. Could someone please send through formal comments about the run of shows that we did with this client please? A supervisor at the centre, Myriam Lamontagne, replied that she had worked on the troupe's 2024 shows. She said Shen Yun installed their own box office booth at the centre, which she said was a breach of contract. When I told them that it was unacceptable and against the contract, and I asked them to close the box office booth, the situation escalated, they questioned my legitimacy and they treated me as if I had no say to what they were doing within the NAC, she wrote. Enlarge image (new window) Conservative MP Garnett Genuis is one of at least two MPs who have raised concerns with the NAC over its decision to not book Shen Yun next year. Photo: The Canadian Press / Adrian Wyld She also said Shen Yun were taking pictures of individual patrons during the shows, without their knowledge, and refused to stop when she asked them. Lamontagne also cited another colleague who worked on this year's shows. She said a Shen Yun manager asked to remove and refund a patron with disabilities from Southam Hall, during the performance, as they were making sounds due to their disability. She said NAC staff told her they were uncomfortable working with the group. On April 30, in another email on the same chain, a senior manager at the NAC, Robyn Gilchrist, wrote about how she and others had discussed specific instances of guests with disabilities being asked to leave the hall during Shen Yun's last visit. These actions expose us to potential human rights complaints, she wrote. If any of these guests decide to file an official complaint, we would be unable to defend our position. This could result in front-page news and create a lasting public record that portrays the NAC as unkind to individuals with disabilities. A local Shen Yun organizer told CBC News that these incidents amounted to a misunderstanding. Local organizer 'mystified' In a statement, the National Arts Centre confirmed to CBC News that Shen Yun has no dates booked for performances at the NAC in 2026. It added venue and rental contracts remain confidential. The NAC also confirmed the content of the emails reviewed by CBC News, but added the availability of our halls for rentals depends on our own artistic programming which we prioritize over rentals. Grace Wollensak, who has helped organize past Shen Yun shows, says she was mystified by the NAC's decision. Wollensak is a national co-ordinator for the Falun Dafa Association of Canada. She said the NAC sent the group their decision in writing on June 28, but did not mention any specific reason. She said the centre's CEO told them last week that it was due to rental availability. National Arts Centre CEO Christopher Deacon told staff in January that he viewed a potential decision not to have Shen Yun return next year as a 'programming' matter. Photo: Serge Gouin We had a pretty great, friendly meeting, Wollensak said. He even suggested we continue with a follow-up meeting. She said it was the NAC who had removed some patrons with disabilities. Wollensak said she had told the centre it was on heightened awareness for potential disruptions from agents of the Chinese government. She said there had been dozens of threats against recent Shen Yun performances. Wollensak said the NAC removed three attendees in wheelchairs for making disruptive noises, and she ensured they were refunded before they left. We want to emphasize that we have no intention of excluding individuals with disabilities, Wollensak said. In fact, for the past 18 years, wheelchair-accessible seating has been available for every Shen Yun performance. Wollensak also denied the allegation that Shen Yun were taking pictures of patrons at the NAC. Shen Yun has a strict policy prohibiting anyone — including local presenters, media and audience members — from taking photos of either the performance or audience during the show, she said, adding that the NAC did not inform them of any such incident. Wollensak also said that in 2024, the group stopped selling tickets at its information desk when it was asked to do so. Wollensak said Shen Yun had previously sold tickets at the NAC, and hadn't been told this was a breach of contract. We like to comply and follow the rules, Wollensak said. There's no reason not to do so. Human rights lawyer calls for reversal The association said the show not taking place next year would be a win for the Chinese government. Emails sent by the Chinese Embassy to the NAC over the last two years show diplomats seeking to invite NAC representatives to embassy events — including Deacon and Nelson McDougall, managing director of the orchestra, to a reception in September 2023. It is unclear if either of them attended. However, in July 2024, after receiving another invitation, Deacon told staff that he had received advice that he should meet the Chinese ambassador, and that McDougall should join the meeting. Enlarge image (new window) David Matas is a human rights lawyer who says the NAC is making a mistake by getting rid of the Shen Yun show. Photo: The Canadian Press / Tom Hanson A note on the Chinese Embassy's website (new window) in August 2024 said the ambassador paid a visit to Deacon. In its statement to CBC News, the NAC said its artistic programming and venue rentals decisions are made independently and without external influence. Its decision comes after Montreal's Place des Arts also said it will not book any dates for Shen Yun next year. According to Shen Yun's website, the only Canadian city where it has performances scheduled in 2026 is Vancouver. One vocal critic of the NAC's decision, human rights lawyer David Matas, provided CBC News a copy of a letter he sent to the centre, urging it to reverse its move. I ask that the NAC grant its stage to these performers, and not lend itself to become a paving stone in the campaign of transnational repression waged by the CCP regime, Matas, who represented groups that spoke out against Chinese state repression during the public inquiry into foreign interference, wrote. This would be contrary to the Canadian values of human rights and diversity, as well as the mandate of your arts centre to present and showcase the best of cultures. Matas said The New York Times was making itself a vehicle of the Communist Party of China's transnational repression against Falun Gong, a charge also levied by the movement itself and Shen Yun since the release of the paper's stories last year.
CBC
5 hours ago
- CBC
Debate underway for candidates vying for seat in Alberta byelection featuring Poilievre
Ten candidates vying to represent Battle River-Crowfoot in the House of Commons are debating tonight in the riding's largest municipality. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is among the candidates at the event being hosted by the Camrose & District Chamber of Commerce ahead of the Aug. 18 byelection. Poilievre is looking to win in the sprawling eastern Alberta riding after he lost his long-held Ottawa seat of Carleton in the April general election. The writ was dropped last month after Conservative Damien Kurek, who handily won the seat in the April vote, stepped down so Poilievre could run. About 210 candidates were registered to run as of Monday on Elections Canada's website, including Liberal candidate Darcy Spady, the NDP's Katherine Swampy, Independent Bonnie Critchley and dozens of others sponsored by the Longest Ballot Committee protest group. WATCH | The longest ballot in federal election history with a twist: The longest ballot in federal election history with a twist 1 day ago With more than 200 names now in the running in Alberta's Battle River–Crowfoot byelection, voters now won't actually be scanning a long piece of paper to mark an "x" beside their preferred candidate. They will, however, need to come prepared because they'll be writing the name of the candidate they're voting for by hand. Elections Canada says adapted ballots requiring electors to write out the name of their preferred pick will be available at polls given the unusually long list of candidates.
