Oil prices above $75/bbl as Israel-Iran conflict intensifies
Over the weekend, Israel launched airstrikes on several oil and gas fields in Iran, including South Pars, one of the world's largest natural gas reserves. Despite the intensity of the attacks, reports indicated that there has been no immediate disruption to energy supplies.
Meanwhile, Iranian missile strikes on northern Israel reportedly caused localized damage to pipelines and transmission lines in the Bazan oil refinery complex near Haifa. While refining operations continue, other functions at the facility have been suspended, according to reports.
At 0755am, IST, the August contract of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was trading at $75.14 per barrel, up 1.24% from previous close. Immediately after Israel attacked Iran, oil prices shot up on Friday. Brent Crude, the global benchmark, had surged 8% to $74 per barrel.
Traders remain wary of further escalation, particularly any threat to the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint through which nearly 20% of the world's oil supply is transported.
S&P Global Commodity Insights said Israel's surprise airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have jolted global energy markets, sending oil prices higher and fuelling fears of broader regional instability. While the conflict is driving up oil and gas prices in the short term, S&P noted that sustained pressure is unlikely unless crude exports are directly impacted.
'If Iranian crude exports are disrupted, Chinese refiners—the primary buyers of Iranian oil—would be forced to seek alternatives from other Middle Eastern suppliers and Russia,' said Richard Joswick, head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global. 'This could also lift freight rates and tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread, and hurt refining margins, especially in Asia.'
According to the Platts OPEC Survey, Iran produced 3.25 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude in May. It also has around 2.2 million b/d of refining capacity and 600,000 b/d of condensate splitting capacity. However, crude exports slipped below 1.5 million b/d last month as floating storage levels rose amid rising geopolitical tensions.
India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil, does not purchase Iranian oil due to US sanctions. Nonetheless, any global supply disruption and price surge increases India's import bill, putting pressure on the rupee and trade balance.
JP Morgan recently projected that crude oil prices could surge to $120–130 per barrel if the conflict worsens.
'If prices climb to $120 per barrel, there will be pressure on the forex front and the trade balance due to a higher import bill. However, inflation may not be immediately impacted, as domestic fuel prices are unlikely to be raised in the short term, having remained static even during earlier price dips,' Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, had told Mint earlier.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Trump secures trade deal with EU, slashes tariffs to 15%; lands $750 billion energy deal and $600 billion investment
The United States and the European Union have reached a last-minute trade agreement that will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, replacing the previously threatened 30% rate. The deal, reached just ahead of the August 1 deadline, was announced by President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after a high-stakes meeting at Trump's Turnberry golf resort in Scotland. 'It was a very interesting negotiation. I think it's going to be great for both parties,' Trump said. President Trump noted the long-standing friction in trade relations between the US and Europe, saying: "We've had a hard time with trade with Europe, a very hard time.' 'I think the main sticking point is fairness.' Under the deal, the US will impose a baseline 15% tariff on EU exports — the same level Japan recently agreed to — including autos, which were previously taxed at 25%. 'We are agreeing that the tariff straight across, for automobiles and everything else, will be a straight across tariff of 15 percent," Trump confirmed. As part of the agreement, the EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of US energy and investing $600 billion more into the American economy. Trump called the outcome 'a good deal for everybody,' while von der Leyen added: 'It will bring stability. It will bring predictability. That's very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.' The agreement reportedly mirrors the recent .S-Japan deal announced earlier in the week, which also featured a 15% import duty and avoided previously threatened higher tariffs. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasised the urgency to push both sides to reach a consensus: 'No extensions, no more grace periods. August 1, the tariffs are set, they'll go into place, Customs will start collecting the money and off we go.' With EU trade deal sealed, six countries including — Britain, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan — have reached agreements with the Trump administration ahead of the upcoming Friday deadline, as the US moves to reshape the global free trade framework by imposing tariffs on nations it accuses of unfair trade practices. While the tariffs agreed upon by these countries are generally higher than the 10 percent base rate the US has applied to most nations since April, they remain significantly lower than the steep rates the Trump administration had threatened if no deals were secured.
India.com
4 hours ago
- India.com
No Rafale or F-35! Army Demands Rs 1.12 Lakh Cr Defence System, Gets Only Rs 36,000 Cr
New Delhi: After Operation Sindoor, India's defense upgrades are speeding ahead like a bullet train. With over Rs 3 lakh crore being pumped into military modernisation, the government is on a mission to acquire or indigenously develop fighter jets, submarines and advanced missile systems. One by one, big-ticket purchases are being cleared, and the pace is relentless. Earlier this month, the Ministry of Defence approved military procurements worth over Rs 1 lakh crore in one go. Among them, Rs 44,000 crore has been set aside for 12 Mine Counter Measure Vessels and Rs 36,000 crore has been sanctioned for six regiments of the Quick Reaction Surface-to-Air Missile system, better known as QRSAM. These six QRSAM regiments will be split evenly between the Indian Air Force and the Army. But here is the twist. This is only a fraction of what the armed forces actually asked for. The Army had demanded 11 regiments. What they got was only three. The Air Force's separate demand? Also unmet. If both services were to receive the full complement, 11 regiments each, the total cost would have soared to Rs 1.12 lakh crore. But the government stopped short. Enter the 'Baby S-400' Apart from being a missile defense system, QRSAM is being nicknamed the 'Baby S-400'. India already has three operational regiments of Russia's S-400 system and expects two more by next year. But defense planners know that S-400s and indigenous Akash systems alone cannot transform the country into a secure fortress. The threat matrix has changed. China is watching, and so is Pakistan. And they are not standing still. Operation Sindoor proved India's air defense muscle. But it also exposed gaps, ones that Pakistan tried to exploit through waves of drone incursions, many supplied by Turkey and China. Hundreds were launched. All were neutralised. But the lesson stuck – air defense needs to be multi-layered, relentless and everywhere. That is where the QRSAM fits in. Designed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), it is built to intercept fighters, drones and helicopters within a 30 km radius. Not as long-range as the S-400's 400 km or Akash's 100-200 km reach, but perfect for quick and short-range airspace protection in dense threat environments. More importantly, it's Indian-made, fast, precise and combat-ready. Not Enough for a Fortress At Rs 6,000 crore per regiment, scaling up to the Army's full demand alone would cost Rs 66,000 crore. Add the Air Force's likely mirror request and you are staring at a Rs 1.12 lakh crore bill. Expensive? Yes. But what is the price of making the skies over India completely off-limits to 5th-gen fighter jets, drones, cruise missiles or worse? With full deployment, India's air defense would shift from deterrence to denial. Nothing would be able to breach the perimeter. During Operation Sindoor, India's air defenses held. But in military planning, holding is never enough. The military is not asking for luxury, it is asking for survivability. Against future drone swarms, supersonic fighters or long-range missile salvos, six regiments are just a start. If the government greenlights the remaining 16 regiments, the Army and the Air Force both, it would send a message that India is preparing. And once QRSAM rings the nation's skies, even the birds will need clearance to fly.
The Hindu
5 hours ago
- The Hindu
Urgent need for 'global approach' on AI regulation: U.N. tech chief
The world urgently needs to find a global approach on regulating artificial intelligence, the United Nations' top tech chief said this week, warning that fragmentation could deepen risks and inequalities. Doreen Bogdan-Martin, head of the UN's International Telecommunications Union (ITU) agency, told AFP she hoped that AI "can actually benefit humanity". But as concerns mount over the risks posed by the fast-moving technology -- including fears of mass job losses, the spread of deepfakes and disinformation, and society's fabric fraying -- she insisted that regulation was key. "There's an urgency to try to get... the right framework in place," she said, stressing the need for "a global approach". Her comments came after U.S. President Donald Trump this week unveiled an aggressive, low-regulation strategy aimed at ensuring the United States stays ahead of China on AI. Among more than 90 proposals, Trump's plan calls for sweeping deregulation, with the administration promising to "remove red tape and onerous regulation" that could hinder private sector AI development. Asked if she had concerns about an approach that urges less, not more, regulation of AI technologies, Bogdan-Martin refrained from commenting, saying she was "still trying to digest" the US plan. Lack of AI policies or strategies "I think there are different approaches," she said. "We have the EU approach. We have the Chinese approach. Now we're seeing the U.S. approach. I think what's needed is for those approaches to dialogue," she said. At the same time, she highlighted that "85% of countries don't yet have AI policies or strategies". A consistent theme among those strategies that do exist is the focus on innovation, capacity building and infrastructure investments, Bogdan-Martin said. "But where I think the debate still needs to happen at a global level is trying to figure out how much regulation, how little regulation, is needed," she said. Bogdan-Martin, who grew up in New Jersey and has spent most of her more than three-decade career at the ITU, insisted the Geneva-based telecoms agency that sets standards for new technologies was well-placed to help facilitate much-needed dialogue on the issue. "The need for a global approach I think is critical," she said, cautioning that "fragmented approaches will not help serve and reach all". As countries and companies sprint to cement their dominance in the booming sector, there are concerns that precautions could be thrown to the wind -- and that those who lose the race or do not have the capacity to participate will be left behind. Huge gap The ITU chief hailed "mind-blowing" advances within artificial intelligence, with the potential to improve everything from education to agriculture to health care -- but insisted the benefits must be shared. Without a concerted effort, there is a risk that AI will end up standing for "advancing inequalities", she warned, cautioning against deepening an already dire digital divide worldwide. "We have 2.6 billion people that have no access to the internet, which means they have no access to artificial intelligence", Bogdan-Martin pointed out. "We have to tackle those divides if we're actually going to have something that is beneficial to all of humanity." Bogdan-Martin, the first woman to serve as ITU secretary-general in the organisation's nearly 160-year history, also stressed the need to get more women into the digital space. "We have a huge gap," she said. "We definitely don't have enough women... in artificial intelligence." The 58-year-old mother of four said it was "a big honour" to be the first woman in her position, to be "breaking the glass ceiling (and) paving the path for future generations". But she acknowledged there was a lot of pressure, "not just to achieve, but to almost overachieve". Bogdan-Martin, who is being backed by the Trump administration to stand for re-election when her four-year mandate ends next year, said she was eager to stay on for a second term. "There is a lot to do."
