U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely
U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely originally appeared on TheStreet.
With missiles flying between Israel and Iran, markets crashing, and everyone refreshing X every 10 seconds, Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, might be one of the only places offering some clarity.
One of the most-watched markets on Polymarket right now is centered on a sobering question: Will the US launch military action against Iran before June 30, 2025? With tensions soaring in the Middle East, this market has attracted over $6 million in trading volume, making it one of the largest geopolitical prediction markets of the year.
Polymarket, which launched in 2020, didn't rise overnight. Its traction skyrocketed in the past year, especially around major political events. In 2024 alone, users wagered over $8 billion on predictions related to elections.
As of now, the odds are sitting around 62% for "Yes", indicating traders increasingly believe that U.S. intervention is imminent.
According to Polymarket's official rules, the market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed US military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Iranian embassies or consulates — between March 31 and June 30, 2025. This must be officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or widely confirmed through credible reporting. Examples include airstrikes, naval actions, or any form of kinetic military engagement. Cyberattacks, economic sanctions, or covert diplomacy won't count.
If a qualifying military strike is confirmed before June 30, the market will resolve early, locking in profits for 'Yes' holders and losses for 'No' holders.
Missiles are flying, cities are on edge, and the world is holding its breath. Over the past few days, Israel and Iran have been locked in a dangerous tit-for-tat that's escalated fast. It began with Israel launching a pre-emptive airstrike on Iran. In response, Iran vowed the 'largest and most intense missile attack in history' on Israeli soil. Since then, Iran has launched multiple volleys of missiles targeting central and northern Israel, while Israeli air defenses and drones have intercepted several of them. Tel Aviv, Haifa, and even areas near the Natanz nuclear site in Iran have sounded air raid sirens as explosions rocked the region.
As tensions spiral, Trump, who left the G7 summit early, is back in Washington, issuing ominous warnings. On Truth Social, he told residents of Tehran to evacuate the city immediately.
The New York Times reported that he's considering using the U.S.'s most powerful 'bunker buster' bomb to target Iran's Fordo nuclear facility.
Markets are already feeling the heat. Oil prices have spiked, Bitcoin dipped sharply, and investors are rattled.
U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 17, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 17, 2025, where it first appeared.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Midjourney's video generator is behind the competition — here's why I love it anyway
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. While the AI image market is now pretty crowded, Midjourney was one of the first to do it, turning words into images years ago. But since then, the company has fallen behind, being outpaced by a variety of competitors. This was most evident in the development of AI video generation. The technology has blown up in recent months, seeing huge improvements from companies like Google and OpenAI. While Midjourney has been quiet on this front for a long time, it finally launched its first video generator. However, while others push boundaries, competing to offer the most advanced package, Midjourney's first attempt at a video generator was surprisingly limited. There is no ability to prompt for the video, only to add images — either your own or ones you've made with Midjourney. While audio isn't common in video generators yet, it's missing from Midjourney's tool However, despite these limitations, in my time using Midjourney's video generator so far, it has quickly become one of my favorites. Midjourney has always stood out in the world of AI generation for one good reason. Where the likes of ChatGPT and Gemini are designed to create lifelike images and videos, Midjourney is hyper-focused on creativity. Before you even use it, you need to rank hundreds of images, giving the model an idea of your style preferences. These preferences can be turned on or off, but with the personalization on, image and video results are clearly pushed to styles that fit me. While you can't directly prompt for a video, the process is isn't much more complicated. After creating an image on Midjourney, you'll have the option to 'animate' the image. This can be done automatically, allowing the AI to choose what happens in the video, either with low or high motion. Or you can manually choose what happens. This turns Midjourney into a similar version of an AI video generator as the big competitors… just with a few extra steps to get there. You can also upload your own images, turning those into videos. Despite some big concerns around copyright right now, Midjourney has also put a strong emphasis on avoiding deepfakes. It won't edit images of real people and is surprisingly unwilling to create something that might resemble celebrity figures. The video generation from Midjourney is clearly designed for the same group as the image generator. It's built for people wanting to make creative projects or design things that are clearly separate from real life. Scroll through Midjourney's explore page and you'll be greeted by moving comic book strips, anime fights and stylised car chases. Midjourney also seems to have put a lot of work into its prompt understanding. Previously, the model would struggle to create good results without incredibly specific details. Now, it works in a similar way to the likes of ChatGPT, able to create images and videos from short descriptions. From the short time I've used it so far, I've got high hopes for Midjourney's video generator. They have warned that prices could change as they test the model so now is a great time to give it a go. OpenAI court filings just revealed new details on AI device with Jony Ive Google Gemini just got a great video feature ChatGPT can't match — here's how to use it I've been using this one ChatGPT prompt for years — and it works in absolutely any situation
Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump global aid cuts risk 14 million deaths in five years, report says
Donald Trump's move to cut most of the US funding towards foreign humanitarian aid could cause more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, according to research published in The Lancet medical journal on Monday. A third of those at risk of premature deaths are children, the research finds. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in March that President Trump's administration had cancelled over 80% of all programmes at the US Agency for International Development, or USAID. "For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict," Davide Rasella, who co-authored the Lancet report, said in a statement. The funding cuts "risk abruptly halting - and even reversing - two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations," added Rasella, a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health. The report comes as dozens of world leaders are meeting in the Spanish city of Seville this week for a United Nations-led aid conference, the biggest one in a decade. Looking back over data from 133 nations, the team of researchers estimated that USAID funding had prevented 91 million deaths in developing countries between 2001 and 2021. They also used modelling to project how funding being slashed by 83% – the figure announced by the US government earlier this year – could affect death rates. The cuts could lead to more than 14 million avoidable deaths by 2030, the projections found. That number included over 4.5 million children under the age of five – or around 700,000 child deaths a year. The Trump administration, previously led by billionaire Elon Musk's cost-cutting initiative, aimed to shrink the federal workforce. It has also accused USAID of supporting liberal projects. The US, by far the world's largest humanitarian aid provider, has operated in more than 60 countries, largely through contractors. According to Rubio, there were still approximately 1,000 remaining programmes that would be administered "more effectively" under the US State Department and in consultation with Congress. Still, the situation on the ground has not been improving, according to UN workers. Last month, a UN official told the BBC that hundreds of thousands of people were "slowly starving" in Kenyan refugee camps after US funding cuts reduced food rations to their lowest ever levels. At a hospital in Kakuma, in northwestern Kenya, the BBC witnessed a baby who could barely move and was showing signs of malnutrition, including having parts of her skin wrinkled and peeling.
Fox News
36 minutes ago
- Fox News
Trump warns of 'whopping 68% tax increase' if Senate fails to pass historic bill
As the Senate continued to inch closer to finalizing President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," the president took to social media early Tuesday to warn that a failure to come to an agreement would end in the largest tax increase in history. The message came after lawmakers had been in a marathon "vote-a-rama," for several hours, submitting amendments to the megabill from either side of the aisle. "Republicans, the One Big Beautiful Bill, perhaps the greatest and most important of its kind in history, gives the largest Tax Cuts and Border Security ever, Jobs by the Millions, Military/Vets increases, and so much more. The failure to pass means a whopping 68% Tax increase, the largest in history!!!," he posted. There is currently no end in sight as Republican leaders are searching for ways to garner support for the bill while simultaneously fighting proposed amendments from Democrats who are opposing it. GOP leaders have a narrow margin and cannot afford to lose more than three Republican senators as two, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has already indicated that they oppose it. Tillis announced that he would not be seeking reelection after President Trump made threats of a campaign against him. Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota said Republicans are "figuring out how to get to the end game," but an end to the vote-a-rama has been predicted to come well into the middle of the night. The bill, if passed, will enact Trump's domestic tax and spending agenda that includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, according to the latest CBO analysis. The package would also roll back billions in green energy tax credits threatening wind and solar investments, according to Democrats. Billionaire Elon Musk, who until a few weeks ago led the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), took to social media late Monday, lashing out at Republicans as "the PORKY PIG PARTY!!" for including a provision, he argued, would raise the nation's debt limit by $5 trillion. Trump fired back at Musk on Truth Social, threatening to turn DOGE on its former leader. "Elon Musk knew, long before he so strongly Endorsed me for President, that I was strongly against the EV Mandate. It is ridiculous, and was always a major part of my campaign. Electric cars are fine, but not everyone should be forced to own one. Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!" the president wrote. The bill will also impose $1.2 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and food stamps and make sign-up eligibility more rigorous and change federal reimbursements to states. It will also provide a $350 billion infusion for border and national security to include deportations.
