Is Donald Trump winning the tariff war he started?

ITV News

3 days ago

'I definitely love America,' declared Pascal Soriot, the chief executive of AstraZeneca, earlier this week.
Unusually, the British pharmaceutical giant - headquartered in Cambridge - announced its half-year results not in London, but across the Atlantic.
Not long ago, AstraZeneca was wrapping itself in the Union Jack to fend off a hostile takeover bid from the American drugmaker Pfizer.
Now, it's whistling Yankee Doodle - ramping up investment in the US (to the tune of $50 billion, or £38 billion) and doing little to silence the campfire gossip that it may shift its primary stock market listing from the UK to the United States.
America's economic might is such that when the president demands greater inward investment, companies like AstraZeneca feel compelled to be seen playing ball.
Trump's approach has forced open some doors to bigger markets for American exporters. Bioethanol, for example, will flow toward the UK in greater quantities - or so British producers fear.
But there's little evidence his tariff barrage is reviving US manufacturing or delivering the industrial jobs boom he promised.
Yes, higher tariffs have boosted US government revenues - but those revenues come from American importers, and they're nowhere near enough to cover the tax cuts and spending pledges in Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Act.
The IMF forecasts that US borrowing will rise further. And yet Trump presses on - underpinned by a belief that any country selling more to the US than it buys must be exploiting it.
Most economists argue that's wrong-headed - America runs a large trade deficit because it consumes and borrows too much. But here we are.
The faster Trump can close trade deals with the countries still in limbo, the less damage will be done.
There's little to celebrate in the new round of tariffs, though they aren't as punishing as first threatened. The UK, along with the Falkland Islands, secured a relatively low 10% rate - the best on offer.
Trade in goods will take a hit. Economic growth will slow. The UK is not in the direct firing line but won't escape unscathed and could fare worse if Trump turns his attention to services.
Mexico has won a 90-day reprieve. Canada and Germany are among the most exposed. Switzerland is in shock, hit with a 39% tariff, well above the 31% Trump threatened back in April.
And then there's China, the elephant in the room. It remains the biggest source of US imports by far. Talks continue, but it's unclear whether common ground can be found.
Inflation in the US is rising and likely to rise further. But the American economy is growing regardless, seemingly impervious to the chaos surrounding it.
The recession some predicted hasn't materialised.
The dynamism is extraordinary. As one economist put it to me: 'The US economy is like a well-made car. You can drive it really badly but it's got such a powerful engine and such great brakes, it's almost impossible to stall.'
Could Trump's trade strategy ultimately come unstuck? Possibly. But for now, the engine keeps running.