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France 24
an hour ago
- France 24
China's economy grows 5.2% on trade war truce
The figures offer a rare bit of good news for the country's leadership as it fights a multi-front battle to kickstart growth -- a challenge made all the more difficult by Donald Trump's tariff war. But the knock-on effects of the trade turmoil abroad and persistent sluggish consumption mean the economy could slump in the second half of year, analysts warned. The US president has imposed tolls on China and most other major trading partners since returning to office in January, threatening Beijing's exports just as it becomes more reliant on them to stimulate economic activity. The two superpowers have sought to de-escalate their row after reaching a framework for a deal at talks in London last month, but observers warn of lingering uncertainty. On Tuesday, Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the Chinese economy grew 5.2 percent in April-June, matching a prediction by an AFP survey of analysts and topping an official growth goal for the year set by the government. But it marked a slowdown from the 5.4 percent seen in the first quarter, which was boosted by exporters rushing to shift goods ahead of swingeing US tariffs kicking in. "The national economy withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges," NBS deputy director Sheng Laiyun told a news conference. "Production and demand grew steadily, employment was generally stable, household income continued to increase, new growth drivers witnessed robust development, and high-quality development made new strides," he said. Markets were mixed in response -- after a strong start to the day, Hong Kong pared an early rally while Shanghai dipped into negative territory. Elsewhere, Tokyo, Sydney, Singapore and Taipei, but Seoul, Wellington and Manila retreated. "The figures probably still overstate the strength of growth," Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "With exports set to slow and the tailwind from fiscal support on course to fade, growth is likely to slow further during the second half of this year," Huang added. Retail sales rose 4.8 percent on-year, below a forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, suggesting efforts to kickstart consumption have fallen flat. The weak readings come even as Beijing tries to shift towards a growth model propelled more by domestic demand than the traditional key drivers of infrastructure investment, manufacturing and exports. Factory output meanwhile gained 6.8 percent, higher than the estimate -- reflecting continued high demand for Chinese exports that has boosted growth. 'More deflation' But analysts warn that strong exports could be driving deflationary pressures and further dampening already sluggish consumer demand. "Recent efforts to boost spending, such as the broadening of the consumer goods trade-in scheme earlier this year, did temporarily lift retail sales," said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody's Analytics. "However, this support proved unsustainable, with funding reportedly drying up in several provinces. The scheme's limitations highlight the need for policymakers to address the deeper structural challenges behind consumer caution." Data last week showed consumer prices edged up in June, barely snapping a four-month deflationary dip, but factory gate prices dropped at their fastest clip in nearly two years. "The economy posted a solid first half, supported by resilient exports, though this momentum is contributing to deepening deflationary trends," Louise Loo, Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics, said in a note. "The cost of strong exports is more deflation," she said. Disagreements also persist between Beijing and Washington, despite the framework agreement reached last month. Trump upped the ante on Monday, warning Russia's trading partners that he will impose "very severe" tariffs reaching 100 percent if Moscow fails to end its war on Ukraine within 50 days. Western nations have repeatedly urged China -- a key commercial ally of Russia -- to wield its influence and get President Vladimir Putin to stop his three-year-old war with Ukraine. "The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging," Capital Economics' Huang said. "With tariffs set to remain high, fiscal ammunition being depleted and structural headwinds persisting, growth is likely to slow further over the second half," she said.
Euronews
2 hours ago
- Euronews
Exclusive: US pitches role in EU regulatory surveillance in trade deal
The US is pitching the creation of a new advisory body for the Digital Markets Act (DMA) involving those companies subject to enforcement of the regulation a voice, in the context of negotiations over an EU-US trade deal, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The EU will never accept the idea however according to two of the sources. On Saturday, Trump posted a new set of letters to his social media platform Truth Social, declaring 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting 1 August, a move that could cause massive upheaval between the United States and two of its biggest trade partners. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen quickly responded by noting the bloc's 'commitment to dialogue, stability, and a constructive transatlantic partnership.' On Sunday, she emphasised that reaching a negotiated solution remains the priority, but that the EU is ready to respond with countermeasures. The DMA regulates the largest online platforms with a view to protecting the rights of consumers and curbing any abusive behaviour by dominant tech players. Under the rules, companies face fines of up to 10% of their global annual turnover for non-compliance. Peter Navarro, a senior Trump advisor, has openly accused the bloc of waging "lawfare" against US Big Tech through the DMA and its sister Digital Services Act (DSA) regulation. In response, the EU has said it will 'not make any concessions on its digital and technology rules' as part of any trade negotiations with the US. The DMA already has an advisory board, which plays a consultative and strategic role in its implementation, supporting the Commission in oversight and enforcement. The board is made up of independent experts and representatives from relevant national authorities and regulatory bodies, however, and is not supposed to be a body of representatives drawn from the enforced entities. The sources did not expand on what form the advisory body touted by the US would take, beyond giving influence over the enforcement methods. "The fact that the US proposed setting up an advisory board for the DMA, where those who might be affected would actually sit, that certainly won't happen, and there will be no exceptions for US companies under the DMA," one source said. The Commission has repeatedly said that DMA probes are conducted strictly according to the regulation, which does not discriminate against companies on the basis of country of origin. But the fact that most of those under its scope are US tech giants means that the decisions are now seen through the lens of the brewing trade war. On both sides of the Atlantic, EU digital legislation has become a red line in the negotiations over tariffs: the US considers the DMA and DSA – which covers illegal content online – as non-tariff barriers to their trade with the EU, while the EU refuses to amend these regulations, which were adopted in 2022. Sovereignty Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera told Euronews on 27 June that it is impossible to for the EU to backtrack on its digital rules. 'We are going to defend our sovereignty. We will defend the way we implement our rules, we will defend a well functioning market and we will not allow anyone to tell us what to do,' she said. Without changing the rules, the Commission could nonetheless finesse implementation of the DMA, according to Christophe Carugati, a Brussels-based tech consultant. Investigations and fines could become the exception in the DMA enforcement. 'To calm the US, the idea could be to settle disputes formally or informally through dialogue. That will implicitly 'pause' the investigations,' he told Euronews. Non-compliance investigations launched over the past year under the DMA have resulted in relatively low fines compared to those imposed on Big Tech under the Commission's previous mandate. Apple has received a €500 million penalty and Meta was fined €200 million, the former for preventing developers from steering consumers to alternative offers, the latter for its 'Pay or Consent' advertising model. In April, EU officials said that the lower fines reflected the short duration of the violations since the DMA implementation started in 2023 but also the Commission's current focus on achieving compliance rather than punishing breaches. Simplification US tech giants could also seek to benefit from the Commission's simplification agenda to secure some relief from regulatory enforcement. In May, Amazon, IBM, Google, Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI called on the Commission to keep its upcoming Code of Practice on General-Purpose AI (GPAI) 'as simple as possible', as reported. EU Tech Commissioner Henna Virkkunen is currently carrying out a digital fitness check, which will result in an 'omnibus' simplification package to be presented in December. She aims to identify reporting obligations in existing digital legislation that can be cut to ease pressure on enterprises, particularly SMEs. The question remains whether that simplification package will also cover the DMA, DSA and the AI Act. Virkkunen has always said that despite facing criticism from former Trump advisor and X-owner Elon Musk, the laws are fair and equitable. "Our rules are very fair, because they are the same rules for everybody who is operating and doing business in the European Union. So, we have the same rules for European companies, American companies, and Chinese companies," Virkkunen told Euronews in April.
LeMonde
2 hours ago
- LeMonde
'Europe is under the double grip of America'
During the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 30, President Emmanuel Macron condemned "revisionist countries that want to impose −under the name of spheres of influence (…) − on free countries their foreign policy choices," lamenting the "potential erosion of longtime alliances (…) [that could usher] in a new instability." Through his comments, Macron was not just targeting Russia and China, but also the United States. Needless to say, these remarks could not have been made at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in The Hague on June 24 and 25 − a major milestone in the Trump administration's effort to turn Europe into its sphere of influence. Heirs of a 200-year-old tradition that was born with the Monroe Doctrine, the United States has long exercised an often brutal hegemony over the Western Hemisphere. But after 1945, when Europe was under Soviet threat, they established a different kind of relationship. This included an international order based on the rule of law, embodied by the United Nations Charter; a massive transfer of resources through the Marshall Plan; and the stationing of American troops at the request of Western European governments. In 1949, NATO was founded. Norwegian historian Geir Lundestad famously called this arrangement an "empire by invitation," confirmed by the eagerness of nations freed from communist rule to join the organization. After resisting the test of time for eight decades, this "benign hegemony," as it was sometimes called, suddenly lost that qualifier in the shockwave of disruption brought about by Trump's second term, the "new sheriff in town"; A double grip is beginning to take hold. Purchasing American weaponry The first operation balances upon the transatlantic security partnership embodied by NATO, the continent's only collective defense body. At a time when the Russian threat has become "existential," the United States has set its conditions: Europeans must raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP. The Hague summit endorsed this objective for 2035, with some creative accounting regarding what counts toward this envelope. Nonetheless, the American president has remained evasive about the extent of the United States' commitment to apply, if necessary, Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which stipulates that if any NATO member is attacked, the others will come to its aid.
