Pakistan will be hit hard by Indus water pause, especially in politically important Punjab: Prof Anjal Prakash

Time of India

31-05-2025

Prof Anjal Prakash
Water is in the headlines again, not just as a resource but as a strategic asset. Prof Anjal Prakash, research director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, ISB, has closely studied these issues and been lead author on multiple IPCC reports. In an interview with Sunday Times, he discusses the use of water as a weapon, impact of
melting glaciers
, and how to cut annual flood risks in Indian cities
In the past, you've advocated for water to be deployed as a bridge, not a weapon. What is your view on the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) pause?
On the contrary, I wrote about water to be used as a weapon way back in 2023 when India sought its revision on the basis of new realities of the Indus Basin. The IWT is one of the most unfair treaties India has signed with around 80% of the flow of the river going to Pakistan. In the past, I did advocate for the IWT to be a bridge for peace but looking at recent developments: water should be used as a strategic weapon in our national interest. Suspending it will have severe short and long-term ramifications for Pakistan's economy. A major proportion of Pakistan's Punjabi and Sindhi farmers depend on Indus for irrigation, and agriculture contributes to around one-fourth of the country's GDP. Blocking its flow will help counter its Punjab-based politics that wields terrorism as a strategic weapon against India. India might experience some international criticism and strained relations with nations such as China, but it has a logic for keeping it in abeyance as the upper riparian country.
Simultaneously, India should maximise water utilisation for development, particularly in J&K and downstream states. This includes infrastructure projects to divert Indus Basin river water for irrigation, hydropower, and other uses. Building canals and storage enhances water security and boosts regional economies. However, it is important that projects don't disturb the fragile ecosystem of the Himalayas.
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In addition to the political pressures exerted on the Indus river basin are the slow-unfolding environmental forces acting on it from melting glaciers. How does water variability affect the Indus Basin?
Melting glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) significantly affect the Indus Basin's water variability. In fact, amongst the three major rivers that feed south Asia — Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra — Indus relies very heavily on the glaciers for its base water flow. Due to climate change, the increased meltwater leads to higher river flows, potentially causing floods and erosion. However, as glaciers shrink, this eventually leads to reduced water availability, especially during dry seasons. This variability impacts agriculture, water supply, hydropower generation and ecosystems. Mitigating the adverse effects of glacial melt on the Indus Basin is essential.
Nepal recently held a funeral for a dying glacier. How effective are such events in galvanising climate action?
Ice funerals, like the one for Yala, do capture public attention through emotional storytelling and visual representation of loss, making the abstract concept of climate change more relatable and immediate. However, their long-term impact on galvanising climate action is debatable. To be truly effective, these events need to be coupled with clear calls to action, such as supporting specific policies, reducing carbon emissions, or promoting sustainable practices. Without that, the potential for meaningful change could be lost.
An increase in heavy rainfall days, coupled with poor urban planning, leads to flooding in cities like Mumbai, Bengaluru and Delhi every year. Describe three policies you would frame to mitigate this annual occurrence.
A multi-pronged policy approach is crucial. First, prioritise integrated urban watershed management, mandating holistic planning that preserves natural drainage, creates retention ponds, and implements permeable pavements to enhance water infiltration and reduce runoff. Second, enforce stringent zoning regulations that restrict construction in floodplains and ecologically sensitive zones. Building codes must prioritise flood resilience through elevated foundations and water-resistant materials. Third, invest in advanced drainage infrastructure, upgrading existing systems, incorporating real-time monitoring and early warning systems, and implementing nature-based solutions like urban forests to enhance water absorption. These policies, implemented in tandem, will significantly reduce urban flood risks. Unfortunately, these are known facts, and I am not stating anything new. What we need is a political force to get this knowledge into action.
The Aravallis are in the process of being formally defined. One of the parameters proposed by the Haryana govt is that only hills with a relative height of 100m be classified as part of the range. Why is this problematic?
The Haryana proposal could lead to a significant underestimation of the range's actual extent. This arbitrary height limit disregards the geological continuity and ecological importance of lower-lying features that are integral to the Aravali ecosystem. Many crucial habitats and recharge zones may be excluded, fragmenting the range and weakening its overall resilience. Properly defining, mapping, and measuring natural systems like the Aravallis is vital for several reasons. Accurate demarcation enables effective conservation strategies, preventing encroachment and unregulated development. It also leads to informed land-use planning, ensuring that economic activities align with environmental protection, and allows for better monitoring of ecological changes, like erosion or deforestation, and supports efforts to mitigate their impacts. Ultimately, this comprehensive approach is essential for preserving biodiversity, maintaining ecosystem services, and promoting sustainable development.