Why all Kerala roads lead to Nilambur today

India Today

18-06-2025

Just 10 months ahead of the assembly election due in April-May next year, Nilambur voters will choose their MLA in the bypoll on June 19 and the results will be declared on June 23. When the three-week-long poll campaign concluded in the evening of June 17, both the rival alliances—the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF)—claimed they would be victorious by a margin of 10,000 votes.The ruling CPI(M) has fielded M. Swaraj, a senior youth leader from the constituency, against Congress leader Aryadan Shoukath, son of veteran Congress leader Aryadan Muhammed, who represented Nilambur for 34 years. P.V. Anvar, who resigned as MLA after rebelling against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the CPI(M), and was a two-term independent MLA before becoming the state convenor of the Trinamool Congress, is also in the fray.advertisementThe National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP has fielded a Christian, Advocate Mohan George, to test the waters with the Christian minorities in the Muslim-dominated constituency. The NDA is likely trying for communal polarisation by wooing the Christians—around 20 per cent of the Nilambur voters—into its fold.Nilambur has 2.32 lakh voters on the list and whoever gets around 73,000 votes will emerge as the winner. 'Swaraj will win by over 10,000 votes,' says V.P. Anil, CPI(M) district secretary. 'Nilambur will vote for the developmental politics that the Left government is promoting.'
The Congress, for which winning the bypoll is important for political survival, offered associate membership in the UDF to the Jamaat-e-Islami's political outfit, the Welfare Party. Meanwhile, CM Pinarayi, who led the poll campaign from June 14 to 16, has said his party 'doesn't want votes from communal parties such as the Social Democratic Party of India, the political outfit of the banned Popular Front of India, or the Jamaat-e-Islami that supports the Congress'. Pinarayi tagged the radical Islamic outfits as 'politically untouchables for the Left'.advertisementThe LDF is determined to retain Nilambur also because its former independent legislator Anvar resigned after hurling serious accusations of corruption at the Chief Minister's Office and additional DGP M.R. Ajithkumar, who handled law and order, and was removed from the post following the allegations.Anvar, meanwhile, is negotiating with the Indian Union Muslim League and their opponents, the Samastha Ulama organisation, the largest Sunni scholarly outfit with the most support among Kerala's Muslims. He met Samastha president Jifri Muthukoya Thangal on June 17 at Malappuram.'The UDF had an upper edge in the constituency since Anvar revolted against the CPI(M), but the Congress could not exploit this advantage after the former MLA repositioned himself in the contest as an independent candidate,' says Firoz Usman, a Nilambur resident. 'If Anvar polls around 25,000 votes, the LDF candidate will win with a 5,000-vote margin as the CPI(M) has a solid vote bank of 33 per cent. As Anvar has 20,000 loyal voters, if he trades his votes to the UDF at the last minute, the Congress-led alliance will win.'Indeed, while the Anvar factor will likely turn the Nilambur bypoll into a thrilling political encounter, the CM's campaign focused on the merits of welfare-driven governance. The Congress made an attempt to expose the government's shortcomings with a road show involving Priyanka Gandhi, who represents Wayanad—a constituency that includes the Nilambur assembly segment—in the Lok Sabha. The Rahul factor was missing, though. When the results are declared on June 23, it would indicate the party's chances in 2026 as well. And if the Congress loses the assembly polls, Pinarayi will get a straight third term in power.advertisementSubscribe to India Today Magazine