SNP must treat the Holyrood lists as the most important votes

The National

a day ago

The interface between psephology and mathematics is an unlikely place to look for an inspiring political discussion. But it is an area we need to get into.
Scotland's additional member system is a hybrid of two different methods of election. There are 73 individual constituencies which elect a single MSP by first past the post (FPTP). The country is also divided into eight regions in each of which seven MSPs are elected from a party list.
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The list representation is quite deliberately intended to compensate parties who do badly out of the FPTP contests. It makes the numbers of MSPs from each party more in line with the votes cast for them.
From the start, the system was a cop-out, accepting the gross and unfair distortions of FPTP, but preferring to put a sticking plaster on it rather than change it. It never ceases to amaze me that while on paper there is a massive cross-party majority against FPTP, the Scottish Parliament, unlike its Welsh counterpart, has never seen fit to change the electoral system it was given by Westminster.
In theory, there is no reason why you could not allocate additional members through making a calculation of the votes already cast in constituencies. But we don't. Instead, voters are asked to make a separate vote on a different ballot paper. It is that vote, and only that vote, which is used to calculate what share of seats parties should have.
These two votes are intended to be part of a single process of determining representation. But I'm pretty sure most people see them as two quite separate choices. Those electors who are still fairly strongly aligned to the party of their choice will probably vote the same way on each ballot.
But a growing number of people are not strongly aligned to one party, they swing between them. A lot of them regard the regional vote as an invitation to make a second choice. Now that you've voted for your MSP, which other party would you like to see in the parliament?
It feels like they are expressing a preference, giving the system their first and second choices. But it doesn't work like that. In reality, if you vote for a different party on the list, you may effectively cancel out your first choice. So, without your knowledge or intent, your actions may prevent the party you wanted elected from winning.
In elections where one party dominates the constituency ballots, this might not be that much of a problem since the biggest party will be hard placed to get seats off the list anyway. But when the electorate's will is volatile and six-party contests make outcomes uncertain, a system in which one vote unwittingly negates the other is a democratic problem.
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Scotland's political parties have themselves reinforced the illusion that voters are being asked to rank more than one preference. The best example being the 'second vote Green' strategy. But even 'both votes SNP' tells people there are two different votes and implies there's an option of making different choices in each.
The SNP have been the decisive constituency victor in the past three elections. In consequence, the party has come to see regional contests as less important. Lists are made up of the same candidates that are fighting the constituencies. For them, it's a belt and braces approach to getting elected. But for some voters, this increases the chance of their vote going elsewhere. They can't see the point of voting for someone on the list who they've already backed with their constituency ballot.
Even now, the party has had all its constituency candidates in place for two months and has not begun the process of choosing regional ones. There is almost an acceptance that nothing can be done about the gap in voting intention between constituency and regional ballots.
John Swinney speaks at an SNP event which saw the party confirm all its constituency candidates for the 2026 elections (Image: PA) This is a mistake. The only way in this system to get a majority is by winning in both constituencies and lists. And the best way to do that is to drive up the share of support in the regional ballot. Increased shares on the list will drag up votes in the constituencies. It doesn't happen the other way round.
So that means a national message must be central to a winning campaign. High-profile teams of candidates not running in individual constituencies need to campaign on a wider terrain. The choice on the list must be presented as the most important, not seen as an afterthought. If anything, it's your main decision. Decide who you want to lead the government first and having done that now choose your local representative.
The SNP tried to do this in 2011 with the slogan 'Alex Salmond for First Minister'. It was the only time the party won a majority. We should learn that lesson.