Buy or Sell JPMorgan Stock Ahead Of Earnings?

Forbes

08-07-2025

JP Morgan headquarters at the heart of Canary Wharf financial district on 30th January 2025 in ... More London, United Kingdom. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is expected to announce its earnings on Tuesday, July 15, 2025. Consensus estimates predict earnings will be $4.47 per share, a decrease from more than $6 during the same quarter last year, while revenues are anticipated to fall by approximately 12% to $44 billion. The company is likely to face pressure from lower investment banking fees, which are forecasted to decrease by mid-teens percentage compared to the previous year, as tariff policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions adversely affect dealmaking activities. The bank has suggested that its full-year net interest income is projected to reach $94.5 billion, slightly exceeding last year's figures. As the largest retail bank in the U.S., controlling over 11% of U.S. consumer deposits, it can leverage its substantial, low-cost deposit base to finance loans at a cheaper rate.
The bank currently has a market capitalization of around $823 billion, with revenues for the past twelve months totaling $173 billion, and it has reported a net income of $60 billion. If you're looking for potential gains with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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JPMorgan Chase's Historical Probability of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data pertaining to observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized, along with the statistics, in the table below.
JPM 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (although not effective if the correlation is minimal) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader may opt for a 'long' position for the next 5 days following a positive 1D post-earnings return. Below is correlation data based on 5-year and more recent 3-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D pertains to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
JPM Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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