Startling charts reveal how world's most infectious disease is poised to engulf America
Striking graphs show there could be more than 11.1 million infections over the next 25 years - 444,000 per year - and roughly 30,000 deaths if vaccination coverage dropped 10 percent.
Research from Stanford University estimates that just a five percent decline in coverage with the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) would lead to an estimated 5.7 million measles cases and at least 2,500 deaths over the next 25 years.
That's the equivalent of 228,000 cases and 320 deaths each year.
And in a devastating scenario, a 50 percent decline in vaccinations could flood the country with the life-threatening disease, potentially leading to 51 million cases, including 10.3 million hospitalizations and between 151,200 and 164,700 deaths.
For context, the US has confirmed 5,567 measles cases over the past 25 years, averaging 223 per year. In 2019 alone, there were nearly 1,300 cases; in 2020, just 13.
If rates stay where they are, the US could lose its measles elimination status within two decades.
The MMR vaccine, 97 percent effective at preventing measles, dramatically lowers the risk of severe illness. Yet 96 percent of annual cases occur in unvaccinated people, with one in five hospitalized and three in 1,000 dying.
The US is facing its largest measles outbreak in 30 years, centered in Gaines and Lubbock counties, West Texas, where just 74 percent and 92 percent of children are vaccinated, respectively.
Texas has confirmed 728 measles cases so far, with over 400 in Gaines County alone. Two children in Texas and one in New Mexico have died. New Mexico has reported 71 cases.
Statewide, Texas' MMR vaccination rate sits at 94 percent, just below the 95 percent needed for herd immunity — but in parts of West Texas, rates are far lower.
In Gaines County's Loop Independent School District, only 46 percent of kindergarteners are vaccinated.
Gaines County also leads the state in vaccine opt-outs, with nearly 14 percent of schoolchildren skipping at least one required shot last year.
The outbreak centering on Gaines County has since spread to dozens of other states, offering researchers a grim preview of what could happen nationwide if vaccination rates drop to West Texas levels.
The Stanford team, whose data was published in JAMA Network, used a computer model for their projections — incorporating randomness to reflect real-world uncertainty.
They drew on US Census, CDC surveillance, and National Immunization Survey data from 2004 to 2023.
The model compared outcomes under current vaccination rates - 87 to 95 percent - and scenarios with rates increased or decreased by five, 10, 25, and 100 percent.
Even small declines in coverage could spark major outbreaks.
Measles was declared eliminated in the US four decades after a vaccine became available — a feat estimated to have saved 94 million lives — but experts fear that progress is slipping.
Dr William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told DailyMail.com: 'We are now in danger of losing the elimination designation, and we were well ahead of the world before.'
More than 1,020 measles cases have been confirmed in 31 states this year, with 92 percent linked to 14 outbreaks.
Dr Schaffner added: 'Given that the current outbreak continues and its now spawned 'daughter' outbreaks among other Mennonite communities and there are yet other small outbreaks, we could potentially lose that elimination status.
'Here we are stepping back to yesteryear.'
The gradually rising case count coincides with a rise in vaccine exemptions for religious reasons in schools.
In 2014, the exemption rate was about 1.7 percent, before a 2015 measles outbreak at Disneyland drew national attention to falling vaccination rates.
By 2016, exemptions rose to two percent, despite moves by states like California to eliminate personal belief exemptions.
The trend continued, reaching 2.5 percent in 2019 — the year the U.S. saw its highest measles case count since 1992, largely in under-vaccinated communities.
The pandemic further disrupted vaccination efforts, pushing exemptions to 2.8 percent in 2021.
By 2023, rates climbed to 3.5 percent, with MMR coverage in kindergarteners dipping below the 95 percent threshold needed for herd immunity.
Vaccine skeptics meanwhile have risen to positions of power, including Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has promoted discredited claims linking the MMR vaccine to autism and founded the leading anti-vaccine group, Children's Health Defense.
CDC and JAMA data suggest exemptions could soon top 4 percent, particularly in rural areas with limited healthcare access and public health distrust, as well as affluent, well-educated urban enclaves drawn to 'alternative' medicine.
'Parents who withhold their children from vaccination are not randomly scattered throughout the population, they generally cluster, which means you have a close affiliation in schools, which makes people susceptible. And should the virus be introduced in their group, it will rapidly spread,' Dr Schaffner said.
Most people with measles develop a high fever, cough, and a blotchy red rash. But serious complications aren't rare.
About 1 in 1,000 children develop encephalitis — dangerous brain swelling that can cause permanent damage.
A rare, delayed complication called subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) strikes about 2 in every 100,000 measles cases.
Years after infection, it causes memory problems, personality changes, seizures, and worsening brain function, progressing to a vegetative state and death.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Mail
25 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Cases of Legionnaires' disease in major city triple... as outbreak leaves one dead
A person has died and cases of Legionnaire's disease have reached at least 22 people in New York York. The New York Health Department said it was alerted to an outbreak in Central Harlem last week after three cases were confirmed in the area. On July 22, city officials confirmed there were eight people who had been infected with no deaths. However, the health department provided an update on July 30 and noted that cases have nearly tripled within a week. The patients are located in Harlem with the ZIP codes 10027, 10030, 10035, 10037, and 10039, along with the bordering communities. No details about the deceased or infected individuals including their names, ages or genders, have been shared by officials. Health experts say the outbreak is not linked to an issue with any buildings' plumbing system and residents in these ZIP codes can continue to drink tap water, bathe, shower, cook and use their air conditioning units at home. The disease is spread from various water sources, particularly public sites such as cooling towers and hot tubs. Legionnaires' disease is a severe form of pneumonia that causes lung inflammation, and complications from the disease can be fatal. About one in 10 people who become sick will die from the infection. The health department said in a statement: 'People who have been in the affected area since late July with flu-like symptoms, fever, cough, or difficulty breathing should seek immediate medical attention. 'People living or working in the area with flu-like symptoms, such as cough, fever, chills, muscle aches, or difficulty breathing should contact a health care provider immediately. 'It is especially important for people at higher risk - including those ages 50 and older, cigarette smokers, and people with chronic lung disease or compromised immune systems - to get care if they have symptoms.' The infection is caused by a bacterium, known as Legionella that is primarily spread through the inhalation of contaminated water droplets or aerosols. These contaminated droplets can be released from various water sources, including cooling towers, hot tubs, showers and decorative fountains. The disease is not spread by drinking or swimming in water or person to person except in the instance of water accidentally getting into the lungs instead of the stomach. Plumbing systems, especially those associated with warm water, such as hot water tanks and distribution pipes, can also serve as reservoirs for Legionella bacteria to multiply. From there it can contaminate water in pipes. Stagnant or low-flow areas in pipes also foster Legionella growth. Previously, Dr Celia Quinn, deputy commissioner of the health department's Division of Disease Control, revealed that 'very hot and humid [weather] can help the bacteria to grow really rapidly'. Temperatures in the city are expected to reach 84 degrees Fahrenheit this weekend, with humidity levels of about 80 percent. In the last week, residents in New York have been dealing with sweltering heat as temperatures climbed to nearly 90F, with humidity levels of more than 70 percent. The Weather Channel predicts that temperatures above 80F will continue to be experienced by the city through most of August. Early symptoms of the disease include fever, loss of appetite, headache, lethargy, muscle pain and diarrhea. The severity can range from a mild cough to fatal pneumonia, and treating infection early with antibiotics is key for survival. Most healthy individuals do not become infected after exposure to Legionella, however, people most at risk include adults over 50, smokers and those with weakened immune systems or chronic lung conditions. The disease is treated with antibiotics including azithromycin, fluoroquinolones (like levofloxacin or moxifloxacin), and sometimes doxycycline or rifampin. The CDC reports that cases of Legionnaires' disease have been increasing since the early 2000s and hit a peak in 2018 with 9,933 confirmed cases. Due to reporting discrepancies and various databases, data on the number of legionnaires' cases and deaths is fragmented and varies. However, according to the CDC's National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDS), from 2000 through 2019, a total of 82,352 confirmed Legionnaires' disease cases were reported from 52 US jurisdictions. The most reliable way to determine if your water is contaminated with Legionella is to have it tested by a qualified laboratory. Home testing kits are also available, which involve collecting water samples and sending them to a lab for analysis. Earlier this week, health officials in Michigan also sounded the alarm over the spread of Legionnaires' disease after two people died of the infection this summer. Wayne County officials confirmed that both people were living in Allegria Village, a continuing care retirement community in Dearborn, Michigan when they contracted the infection in June and July. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reportedly said that both patients had tested positive for Legionnaires' disease Legionnaires' disease is a severe form of pneumonia that causes lung inflammation. It is caused by a bacterium, known as Legionella. Around 500 people in the UK and 6,100 in the US suffer every year. The condition can cause life-threatening complications, including respiratory failure, kidney failure and septic shock, which occurs when blood flow to the vital organs is blocked. Most sufferers become ill by inhaling tiny water droplets from infected sources, such as shower heads, hot tubs, swimming pools or ventilation systems in buildings. Anyone can become infected, however, at-risk people include the elderly, smokers and those with suppressed immune systems, such as chemotherapy patients. Symptoms usually develop between two and 10 days after exposure to the bacteria. Early signs include: Headache Muscle Pain Fever and chills People may then experience: Cough, which may bring up blood Breathlessness Chest pain Nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea Confusion Treatment is antibiotics, usually in hospital, as soon as possible. Prevention involves meticulous cleaning and disinfection of water systems. People can reduce their risk by not smoking as this damages the lungs and makes individuals more susceptible. Source: Mayo Clinic
Reuters
25 minutes ago
- Reuters
France battles rapid spread of viral cattle disease in cheese regions
PARIS, July 31 (Reuters) - France is battling the rapid spread among cows of an infectious illness called lumpy skin disease, with 51 outbreaks reported and about 1,000 animals culled since the first case was detected in late June, the farm ministry said on Thursday. A vaccination campaign launched on July 19 has so far covered around 100,000 cows in four Alpine departments, including Savoie and Haute-Savoie, where the outbreaks were detected, it said. Lumpy skin disease, a viral illness transmitted by insect bites, causes blisters and lowers milk production in cattle. It does not pose a risk to humans but often leads to trade bans and economic losses. A stage of the Tour de France cycling race was shortened last week after an outbreak along the planned route led to cattle culls and restricted access. The outbreaks have raised the alarm over the economic impact in regions known for production of cheeses such as Reblochon, Beaufort and Tomme de Savoie. "We are in a growth phase of the disease," a farm ministry official told reporters. France's national cattle herd numbers about 17 million, the largest in the European Union. Britain and other countries have banned imports of raw milk cheese from France due to the recent outbreaks, French dairy producers said. Lumpy skin disease is widespread in North Africa and was also detected in Italy in late June.
The Guardian
25 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Farmers and scientists join forces in Cornwall to vaccinate badgers against TB
The first farmer-led programme to vaccinate badgers against tuberculosis is beginning in Cornwall with an aim to prevent transmission of the disease to cattle. The programme is significant because farmers and scientists have long been at loggerheads over the culling of badgers as a way to control TB. The three-year trial will start with 70 farms and involve farmers trapping, testing and vaccinating badgers, with training provided by scientists. An earlier pilot study of the approach showed TB rates in badgers fell from 16% to zero in four years. TB can devastate cattle herds and more than 20,000 infected cattle were slaughtered in the last year in England. The badger cull started in 2013 and has killed about 250,000 badgers but has been highly controversial. Most scientists have argued since the start that culling can make no meaningful contribution to TB control in cattle, based on a large-scale trial from 1998 to 2005. They say most cattle are infected by other cattle and that controlling livestock movements are key. Most farmers argue that badgers are a dangerous reservoir for the disease and must be controlled. The results of the culling to date are contested. Badger culling is due to end in 2029. The £1.4m project is the first time the National Farmers' Union has led a badger vaccination programme. Previous badger vaccination trials have been conducted by wildlife groups. Prof Rosie Woodroffe, at the Institute of Zoology in London, said: 'For half a century, wildlife advocates and farmers have argued about the best way to manage the risk of TB transmission between badgers and cattle. Ultimately, we all want the same thing: to see TB eliminated so that farmers, their livestock, and wildlife can all thrive. 'By working together to compare different approaches, we can develop a shared understanding of the evidence and use it to identify TB control solutions which are effective and sustainable.' Bridget Whell, a farmer and the NFU's Cornwall chair, is taking part in the project and has 1,200 cattle serving two dairies. She has lost half the cattle from one of the dairies in the past and her farm has spent most of the last 15 years under government restrictions due to TB infections. 'It was really devastating,' she said. There have been six years of badger culling on Whell's farm but that have now ended due to the government's decision to end culling. 'It does seem now that in terms of the tools available, aside from biosecurity and [cattle] testing, [badger vaccination] is the future,' she said. Cattle vaccines for TB are being developed but have been complicated by the need to be able to distinguish between infected and vaccinated animals when they are tested. 'There's been a lack of confidence [about badger vaccination] because there's been no information,' Whell said. 'What we hope to ultimately get out of [the project] is whether [badger vaccination] affects the cattle levels of TB – that remains to be seen, but I think it's well worth doing.' 'My scepticism, if any, is whether this is as a policy is sustainable, financially and practically.' The project will begin with 70 farmers over 80km2 in Cornwall, and expand over three years to cover 400 to 500km2. It will assess the impact of badger vaccination on TB control and examine how vaccination can be scaled up and delivered in the most cost-efficient way. The project will assess three vaccination approaches to determine which works best: annual vaccination over four years, vaccination every other year or reactive vaccination based on TB infection on farms.
