JPMorgan says Tesla demand weakness likely continued in second quarter
'Based on our checks, the softer demand for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) vehicles evident in 1Q results appears to have continued into 2Q,' JPMorgan wrote.
The firm expects deliveries to fall to 360,000, a 19% year-over-year decline and an 8% shortfall versus Bloomberg consensus of 392,000.
The updated estimate is down 9% from JPMorgan's previous 2Q forecast of 395,000. Analysts noted sales trends in Europe, U.S. forecasts from Motor Intelligence, and insurance registration data from China as the basis for their revision.
JPMorgan also warned of a 'material risk to the outlook for full year deliveries,' noting that current consensus requires a sharp second-half rebound.
'Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg currently expect Tesla to deliver 922K vehicles in the back half of 2025,' or +32.3% above JPMorgan's first-half estimate of 697,000.
This would be a departure from the modest 9% first-to-second-half growth Tesla has averaged in recent years.
The firm sees affordability challenges ahead, particularly if the $7,500 federal Consumer Tax Credit is rolled back sooner than expected under new Senate proposals.
JPMorgan lowered its 2025 EPS forecast from $2.07 to $1.75 and cut its 2026 EPS estimate from $2.85 to $2.40.
'We expect the multi-year downtrend in consensus revenue, EPS, EBIT, & FCF expectations to continue,' the analysts wrote, noting they remain below consensus on Tesla for 2Q, 2025, and 2026.
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