Welfare U-turn: is Keir in control?
Keir Starmer has performed a screeching about-turn on his flagship welfare reforms, all in the hope of quelling the rebellion from more than 120 MPs who have been promised 'massive concessions' over concerns about disability benefits.
These include moderating the bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits, and offering to protect Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants for ever – to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants, a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climbing to £100 billion by 2030. It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury's finances. Early estimates suggest that the welfare bill climbdown could cost £2 billion: money which Rachel Reeves will now have to find elsewhere. Can Starmer recover?
Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Luke Tryl, director of More in Common.
Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
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Sky News
24 minutes ago
- Sky News
Extra 150,000 people will still be forced into poverty despite welfare U-turn
Why you can trust Sky News An extra 150,000 people will still be pushed into poverty despite the government making significant concessions on its plans to cut welfare, according to its own analysis. The government document, published today, reflects its decision to water down some of the more severe changes to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and the health top-up for universal credit. It states that an estimated 150,000 people will now be pushed into poverty after housing costs if the new welfare cuts come into effect - down from 250,000 under the government's original plans. Under the original reforms, the eligibility criteria for PIP would have been tightened for both new and existing claimants. Ministers also intended to freeze the health top-up of Universal Credit at £97 a week during this parliament. However, in the face of a large rebellion by Labour MPs, the government changed the proposals for PIP to apply to new claimants only from November 2026. All current recipients of the health element of Universal Credit will also now have their incomes protected in real terms, as will any new applicants who meet the "severe conditions criteria". The government will hope that the reduction of 100,000 people will be enough to persuade Labour MPs to vote for the new package of reforms when they are put to a vote on Tuesday. 0:43 The new assessment also states the impact on the number of pensioners and children in poverty is "expected to be negligible" after the original analysis said 50,000 children would be in relative poverty by the end of the decade. The new modelling does not take account of extra money the government is putting in to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work. Before the government announced its changes, 127 Labour MPs signalled publicly that they would be willing to vote down the welfare bill in its entirety by signing an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament. It has been reported that the number of Labour rebels now stands at around 50 following the concessions. 1:30 Nadia Whittome, the Labour MP for Nottingham East, indicated she would still vote against the bill despite the concessions. In a post on X, she said: "Even with the concessions, the government's own analysis forecasts that 150,000 people could still be pushed into poverty by disability benefit cuts by the end of the decade. "As Labour MPs, we didn't enter politics to make struggling constituents poorer. We must stop this bill." Downing Street said the updated modelling on the impact of the government's welfare cuts "doesn't reflect the full picture". A spokesperson said there was still "uncertainty" around the projections because they don't take into account other government action, including NHS investment and employment support.
North Wales Live
an hour ago
- North Wales Live
DWP welfare reforms could dramatically change the lives of 150,000 people
Around 150,000 people will be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of the Government's welfare cuts despite Sir Keir Starmer being forced into a partial U-turn. The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals. Modelling published by the Department for Work and Pensions said the estimate does not include any "potential positive impact" from extra funding and measures to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work. Join the North Wales Live WhatsApp community group where you can get the latest stories delivered straight to your phone Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall announced last week that changes to the personal independence payment (Pip) will only apply to new claimants from November 2026, and ministers also rowed back on plans to cut the health-related element of Universal Credit after 126 Labour MPs signed an amendment that would have effectively killed the Government's Bill. The changes will reduce the amount of money the reforms will save, adding to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' headaches as she seeks to balance the books for day-to-day spending. Ms Kendall will update MPs on the changes later on Monday, with the Labour leadership still braced for a substantial revolt despite the changes aimed at averting a Government defeat in the Commons on Tuesday. A No 10 spokesman said: "The broken welfare system we inherited is failing people every single day. It traps millions, it tells them the only way to get help is to declare they'll never work again and then abandons them. "No help, no opportunity, no dignity and we can't accept that. For too long, meaningful reform to a failing system has been ducked." The Prime Minister is expected to continue talking to would-be rebels in the lead-up to Tuesday's vote, when the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Bill faces its first Commons test. The No 10 spokesman said the poverty modelling was "subject to uncertainty" and showed "the effect of these measures on poverty in isolation in 2029-30, it doesn't reflect the full picture". He added: "You have to look at the record levels of investment in the health and care system, £29 billion more day-to-day funding in real terms, than in 2023-24, to help people get the treatment they need on time to return to work." An additional £1 billion a year by the end of the decade to help people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into jobs "will directly help people move into work and become financially independent".
Daily Record
an hour ago
- Daily Record
DWP benefit cuts to push 150,000 people into poverty despite partial U-turn
The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals. Around 150,000 people will be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of the Government's welfare cuts despite Keir Starmer being forced into a partial U-turn. The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall announced last week that changes to the personal independence payment (Pip) will only apply to new claimants from November 2026. Ministers also rowed back on plans to cut the health-related element of Universal Credit. It comes after after 126 Labour MPs - 12 of them Scottish - signed an amendment that would have blocked the Government's Bill. Kendall will update MPs on the changes later on Monday, with the Labour leadership still braced for a substantial revolt. A No 10 spokesman said: 'The broken welfare system we inherited is failing people every single day. 'It traps millions, it tells them the only way to get help is to declare they'll never work again and then abandons them. 'No help, no opportunity, no dignity and we can't accept that. 'For too long, meaningful reform to a failing system has been ducked.' Government whips are expected to continue talking to would-be rebels in the lead-up to Tuesday's vote. This is when the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Bill faces its first Commons test. The No 10 spokesman said the poverty modelling was 'subject to uncertainty' and showed 'the effect of these measures on poverty in isolation in 2029-30, it doesn't reflect the full picture'. He added: 'You have to look at the record levels of investment in the health and care system, £29 billion more day-to-day funding in real terms, than in 2023-24, to help people get the treatment they need on time to return to work.' Several Scottish Labour MPs have told the Record today that they are undecided on whether they will back the bill.
