Gold Prices In India May Reclaim Rs 1 Lakh By December 2025: Report
Gold Rate Prediction: Local gold prices are expected to continue trading with an upside bias during July-December 2025, and may hit Rs 100,000 per 10 grams.
Gold Rate Prediction 2025: Gold has given robust returns this year amid geopolitical tensions and the tariff war. The price rise trend in India is likely to continue in the second half of the year 2025, and the rate is likely to reclaim the psychological mark of Rs 1,00,000, according to ICICI Bank Global Markets.
'Local gold prices are expected to continue trading with an upside bias moving from a near-term range of Rs 96,500 to Rs 98,500 per ten grams to Rs 98,500 per ten grams to the Rs 100,000 per ten grams range in H22025," ICICI Bank Global Markets said in its report.
Gold prices, which have cooled in the past few days amid easing in global geopolitical and economic tensions following the Iran-Israel ceasefire and US-China trade deal, currently trade in the range of Rs 96,500-Rs 98,500 per 10 grams.
The yellow metal's prices in recently crossed the Rs 1 lakh mark in India before cooling down.
Higher prices in India adversely affected the gold retail demand. In volume terms, gold imports have fallen on a sequential basis, showing that demand is weakening in response to elevated prices. Gold imports of $2.5 billion were recorded in May compared to $3.1 billion in the previous month. Investment demand was strong in May.
Last month, brokerage house Quant Mutual Fund in its 'Factsheet for June 2025' had said gold has peaked out and might correct by 12-15% in the next two months.
Data released by the AMFI showed a net ETF inflow of Rs 2.92 billion in May, after two consecutive months of outflows, highlighting the robust investment-related demand for the yellow metal in the local markets.
On the global front, despite the sequential fall in gold prices, investment demand for the yellow metal remained strong, which is evident from ETF flows as well.
The SPDR ETF flows in gold increased from 930 tonnes as of June 1, 2025, to 948 tonnes as of July 1, 2025. At the same time, speculative net long positions rose by roughly 13k lots in the last month.
In recent months, the gold bull run appears to have stalled as prices have been flat over the last month, reflecting an easing in safe-haven demand that has taken place, even as they remain higher on a YTD basis in 2025 by 28 per cent.
A critical development was the ceasefire reached between Israel and Iran that improved risk sentiment and reduced demand for the yellow metal. At the same time, markets are positioning for the US government to agree on trade deals with other countries that will limit the need for reciprocal tariffs to be implemented, the report added.
The US has already agreed deals with the UK and Vietnam, while there has been considerable progress made in negotiations with other countries such as Japan, India and the EU.
Besides, the US and China have agreed upon a framework for a trade deal as well that will be concluded presumably by August.
'The upshot is that the easing in geopolitical tensions and expectations that trade-war 2.0 could ease in magnitude have worked to limit further sharp upside emerging in gold prices," the report added.
The report further stated that investment-related demand has continued to drive gold prices as jewellery demand has witnessed softness.
First Published:
July 05, 2025, 15:36 IST
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