Bay Area sees elevated fire risk as blustery weather returns
But that warmth won't last.
On Thursday, a deepening upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest will induce a stronger onshore flow into the Bay Area, dragging cooler air inland and whipping up gusts across the region. It's a classic mid-June setup, one that's defined much of this month already. By Friday and Saturday, inland temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees below average, with even parts of the Central Valley struggling to reach the 80s.
But what you'll feel most, especially Thursday and Friday, is the wind. Widening pressure differences between the coast and the hot interior will translate to big temperature differences between San Francisco and Sacramento — around the 90th percentile for June. That means an onshore surge is coming.
Winds will ramp up from the west/northwest on Thursday afternoon and peak again Friday afternoon. Most places will see gusts of 25 to 35 mph, with localized bursts above 40 mph along wind-prone gaps like the Altamont Pass, San Bruno Gap and the coastal ridges. Offshore, gusts to 60 mph are likely just beyond Point Reyes, where a low-level jet streak will develop.
Those winds won't just be a nuisance, they'll also heighten fire weather concerns across the interior. Starting Thursday, gusty flow and drying fuels, particularly fine grasses that dried out early this season, will combine with relative humidity in the 15% to 25% range to elevate fire risk in the North Bay mountains, interior East Bay, eastern Santa Clara Hills and down through interior Monterey and San Benito counties.
Further inland, that risk becomes more acute. A sharp temperature gradient and steep pressure difference will drive widespread gusts of 30 to 45 mph Thursday afternoon, with peaks over 50 mph possible in wind-prone zones like the Northwest Sacramento Valley and Salinas Valley foothills. That setup has already triggered PG&E to activate its Emergency Operations Center ahead of a potential Public Safety Power Shutoff, as dead fuel moisture nears critical thresholds in several counties.
For now, much of the Bay Area is expected to remain below Red Flag criteria thanks to cooler temperatures and continued marine influence. But it's a pattern worth watching. Grass fires have sparked this week in the East Bay and South Bay foothills, a sign that the landscape is ready to burn.
Thursday breakdown
San Francisco: Skies will be sunny all day across the city, with highs topping out in the upper 50s along the coast and low to mid-60s east of Twin Peaks. A steady west/northwest breeze of 10 to 20 mph will keep things feeling crisp, especially near the water. By evening, skies remain mostly clear but winds will stay elevated with gusts near 20 mph at times. Overnight lows will dip to the low 50s, with a few clouds drifting in after midnight.
North Bay: Temperatures will be cooler compared to Wednesday, with highs climbing into the upper 60s near the coast. Places like Napa, San Rafael and Petaluma should reach the low to mid-70s, while Santa Rosa and Fairfield will be closer to 80 degrees. A steady west wind of 10 to 20 mph will pick up through the afternoon, with gusts nearing 35 mph in the hills and wind-prone gaps. Thursday night will be mostly clear and breezy, with lows dipping into the mid-40s in the valleys and low 50s elsewhere.
East Bay: The day will be sunny and breezy across the East Bay with significantly cooler temperatures. Highs inland will be in the mid- to upper 70s in Concord and Walnut Creek, while temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s in Richmond, Oakland and Hayward. Winds from the west will build through the afternoon, peaking at 15 to 25 mph, with higher gusts through some of the inland passes. Skies stay clear overnight and winds remain elevated, with lows dipping into the low 50s across most of the region.
Pacific Coast and Peninsula: Sunshine comes to much of the Peninsula, save for some stubborn cloud cover along the immediate coast. Highs will stay in the upper 50s from Daly City to Half Moon Bay, while Redwood City and San Mateo warm into the upper 60s to low 70s. West winds will strengthen through the afternoon, gusting 20 to 30 mph near the coast and stronger gusts through the San Bruno Gap. Overnight lows fall to the upper 40s at the coast and low 50s inland, with coastal clouds returning after dark.
South Bay and Santa Cruz: The day will be sunny across the South Bay and Santa Cruz, with highs in the low 70s for San Jose, Cupertino and Santa Clara. Winds will pick up from the northwest in the afternoon with gusts from 10 to 20 mph. Staying breezy overnight with lows falling into the low 50s in the valley and upper 40s near the coast.
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