Secret figures show Liberal party's ageing membership in freefall in NSW and Victoria
The Liberals were decimated in major cities at the federal election, losing the Victorian seats of Menzies and Deakin as well as Banks and Hughes in Sydney and possibly Bradfield, where the electoral commission is conducting a recount. The story in the other capitals was no better.
Party membership numbers are closely guarded by office bearers, but Guardian Australia has spoken to several party sources in both New South Wales and Victoria, who were willing to disclosure figures on the condition they were not named.
In Victoria, three sources said membership numbers were between 9,000 and 10,000, with the majority based in the federal electorates of Kooyong, held by teal independent Monique Ryan, and Goldstein, which will likely be won by Liberal Tim Wilson.
A former member of the Victorian Liberal executive said the division had about 15,000 members close to 20 years ago. The party has since shed members, according to the source, and the average age of those who remain has climbed to 68.
'One of the biggest expenses we used to have [at our local branch] was on funeral wreaths,' they said. 'We'd be down at the florist every week handing over $70.'
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Both state divisions are urging members to renew their annual memberships after a bruising federal election loss. One Victorian source said as of mid-May, about 30% of members had not renewed.
In NSW, one Liberal source said party membership dipped below 10,000 after the state election loss in March 2023, before climbing to close to 12,000 by the end of the year. Another source said the current numbers were somewhere between 8,000 and 10,000.
Earlier this month, NSW Liberal officials confirmed about 5,000 people had allowed their membership to lapse in recent years. In an opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review, they blamed the decline on factional fighting in branches.
'Our membership has declined by more than 1,000 in just a year, many branches refuse to support in any way their sitting MP not of their faction and we have lost successive state and federal elections,' three senior party elders wrote.
Slightly more than 600 applicants have been refused membership, according to the party officials, due to concerns they may impact the power balance within branches.
The NSW Liberal party's annual disclosures to the state electoral commission also show a significant drop in revenue from members.
In 2018-19, the party generated $1.38m from 'paid individuals' who had either a membership, an affiliation or a party subscription. That figure dropped to $836,770 last financial year, according to disclosures.
'We need to actively go out and seek people and build personal relationships with them in an organisation that isn't transactional, but transformational,' said one NSW Liberal source. 'It's not about getting people to door knock or donate, it's about working together to help change government policy.'
Several Liberal sources in both states, including federal MPs, have complained about losing volunteers and donors to third-party groups, such as Advance Australia.
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In Victoria, Advance's federal election campaign was bankrolled by a $500,000 donation from the state branch's nominated entity, the Cormack Foundation. When contacted for a response to these concerns earlier this month, Advance's executive director, Matthew Sheahan, accused 'bed-wetting anonymous Liberals' of 'looking to blame everyone but themselves'.
One former Liberal, who is now involved in political campaigns for third-party groups, said they used to direct members from seats such as Goldstein and Kooyong to other electorates in Victoria. But since the rise of teal independents, they were now required in their own seats.
They said as a result, the party had become increasingly dependent on 'non-cause actors', who are not party members, to support them at other, marginal polling booths. They referred to reports that members of the Exclusive Brethren religious sect were handed out how-to-vote cards before the 3 May poll, despite the church barring followers from voting.
'Labor has the labour movement, the Greens the environment, Nationals the country,' the source said. 'The Liberals aren't a movement. Maybe, back in the day, they were an anti-communist movement but there are no communists in Labor any more.'
One Victorian Liberal MP downplayed the drop in numbers and said a decline in volunteers was common across almost all community groups – not just political organisations. They said the cost of living had contributed to a 'slight decline' in membership.
Sussan Ley, on being elected as leader, pledged to rebuild the party in major cities and appeal to a broader subsection of Australian society.
'If we stay focused, our political movement has the foundations to rebuild and once again guide Australians toward a better future,' Ley said earlier this month. 'That starts with accepting the fact that Australians sent a clear message at the election. We must listen, change and develop a fresh approach.'
With additional reporting by Anne Davies
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