Editorial: Start of Japan upper house race a chance to break political stagnation

The Mainichi

3 days ago

Today, July 3, marks the official start of campaigning for the House of Councillors election. Can the sense of stagnation in Japanese politics, deepened under a minority ruling coalition, be overcome?
The focus is on whether the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito, which together suffered a major defeat in last autumn's House of Representatives election, can maintain a majority in the House of Councillors including the seats not being contested this time. This is in fact the goal presented by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The coalition parties will reach this target if they secure 50 of the 125 seats that are up for grabs.
This low aim -- below the usual goal of securing a majority of contested seats -- reflects the administration's predicament amid declining approval ratings.
If the coalition maintains a majority in the upper house, then the prime minister has two options: secure a majority of votes by obtaining cooperation from some opposition parties on a bill by bill basis in the lower house, as it has done to date, or stabilize the administration by expanding the coalition framework, for example.
However, if the LDP and Komeito fall to become minorities in both houses, calls for the prime minister's resignation are certain to erupt from both within and outside the party.
LDP-Komeito coalition reaching its limits
While the House of Representatives election is considered an election to pick the government administration, the House of Councillors election is often seen as a midterm evaluation of the current administration. But this time voters are not judging the Ishiba administration alone. What is being questioned first of all is the system of LDP politics that has persisted for many years.
Founded 70 years ago, the LDP has governed as a mass party encompassing a wide range of ideologies from conservative to liberal. It maintained a majority in the Diet over the years by reflecting the demands of industry groups and others in its measures and policies in exchange for "votes and money."
Criticism of money-driven politics grew, leading to the LDP's temporary loss of power in the early 1990s. After the political reforms of the Heisei era, the party returned to power, but the strength of its support groups waned with the changing times.
It was Komeito, with its strong support base, that compensated for the LDP's decline. Over a period of around a quarter of a century, a stable coalition government was built.
However, under the LDP's predominance since the second Shinzo Abe administration, its tendency to disregard the Diet grew stronger. Komeito, moreover, was unable to make its presence felt in its role of serving as a brake on security policy and other measures.
It was in this context that the slush fund scandal involving LDP factions came to light. The issue of "money in politics" once again hit the administration, contributing to the LDP-Komeito coalition's major setback in last year's lower house election.
Prime Minister Ishiba, facing the need to tide over the predicament, called for a "deliberative Diet," seeking cooperation from opposition parties. In practice, however, he was often seen prioritizing maintaining power through numbers by accepting demands by some opposition parties in discussions behind closed doors.
An opinion poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun has found that public views on the appropriate form for the administration after the upper house election was divided roughly evenly between a "framework with some opposition parties added to the LDP-Komeito alliance" and an "opposition party-centered" one, each supported by around 25% of respondents. Only a little over 10% supported the continuation of the LDP-Komeito government. It seems the coalition is reaching its limits.
The behavior of the opposition parties also comes under scrutiny in the upper house election. While remaining fixated on implementing policies aimed at specific support bases, they are weak in terms of taking responsibility for the long-term governance of the nation.
This comes against the backdrop of the strong showing among emerging parties that are absorbing public dissatisfaction by criticizing established parties for failing to address social issues like widening inequality.
Overall policy picture called into question
The ruling coalition is also being dragged along by the trend of competing for credit through pork-barrel policies. Symbolic of this are measures to counter rising prices, which have been cited as a focal point of the upper house contest. It has become a case of pandering to the public with the choice of cash handouts or tax cuts. Meanwhile, serious fiscal issues are being left unaddressed.
Symptomatic treatment is not what is required.
The Reinventing Infrastructure of Wisdom and Action (ReIWA) conference, composed of private experts, has urged political parties to present not only individual policies but their "overall policy frameworks." The parties should present blueprints for nation-building with an eye on the future and compete over policies head-on.
With a rapidly declining population, how can Japan increase the sustainability of its social security system? And with deepening turmoil in the international situation, how should Japan engage with the "America First" administration of U.S. President Donald Trump? Domestic and overseas issues are becoming more serious.
The continuing decline in voter turnout in recent national elections in Japan is a matter of concern. In the previous House of Councillors election, voter turnout was 52.05%, meaning that roughly one out of every two people were abstaining from their right to vote. It is hoped that all parties will engage in robust debate that attracts voters.
Each and every voter's choice will determine the direction of a new "form of politics." We hope the upcoming election will be an opportunity to contemplate the future without turning a blind eye to the problems faced by society.