The pattern across 13 years of men's and women's semi-finals that gives England hope

New York Times

3 days ago

England will go into Sunday's Euro 2025 final against Spain as clear underdogs.
It's less about the fact Spain defeated them in the World Cup final two years ago, and much more about the quality of both sides' play throughout this tournament. England have won only two of their five games in 90 minutes, and have spent the majority of their knockout games against Sweden and Italy trailing. Spain, on the other hand, have won all five of their matches, often with scintillating passing football.
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The one positive, from England's perspective, is an extra day of rest after their semi-final. At the end of an intense tournament, with matches played in serious heat and only three days of rest between group games — and with both semi-finals going into extra time — freshness could be crucial.
Indeed, the pattern from the past 13 men's or women's World Cup and European Championship finals is quite striking, something The Guardian's Tom Garry spoke about before the tournament. In 12 of those matches, the side who played the semi-final a day earlier won the final. In the other game, the semis were played on the same day.
Men's European Championship 2012
Spain had one extra day between semi-final and final (three to two) and defeated Italy comprehensively 4-0 in the final, with Italy being down to 10 men for the final half-hour due to injury.
Women's European Championship 2013
Germany had an extra day (again, three to two) over Norway, who had also been forced to play extra time and penalties in their semi-final. Germany won 1-0.
Men's World Cup 2014
Germany not only had an extra day of rest compared to Argentina (four to three), they had also only played at full intensity for half an hour of their semi-final, finding themselves 5-0 up against Brazil before eventually winning 7-1. Argentina played 120 minutes before winning against the Netherlands on penalties. Germany won 1-0 in extra time in the final.
Women's World Cup 2015
The United States Women's National Team had four days of rest compared to holders Japan's three, and were 4-0 up within 16 minutes in the final, eventually winning 5-2.
Men's European Championship 2016
France had home advantage in Paris — but Portugal had three days off compared to two, and won in extra time.
Euro 2017
The exception that proves the rule. The Netherlands defeated Denmark 4-2, having won the second semi-final… but the two semis were played on the same day. Given Denmark's semi-final went to penalties, while hosts the Netherlands won in 90 minutes, there was only a two-hour difference between when the games ended.
Men's World Cup 2018
France had four days off compared to Croatia's three, and scored four goals compared to Croatia's two.
Women's World Cup 2019
Two second-half goals handed the United States victory over the Netherlands. They had four days off compared to three for the Dutch.
Men's European Championship 2020 (played in 2021)
Having recognised the problem, UEFA moved the semi-finals ahead of this tournament, meaning the semi-finalists had gaps of four and three days, compared to the old system of three and two. But for the second men's Euros running, the hosts lost in the final, with Italy defeating England on penalties. Clearly, home advantage is not as important as an extra day of rest.
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Women's European Championship 2022
A year later, England's women had home advantage and an extra day to prepare. Sure enough, they beat Germany 2-1 in extra time.
Men's World Cup 2022
Argentina had four days off compared to France's three. Not only was the World Cup in Qatar played at the 'wrong' time of the year, it was also condensed into a shorter-than-usual timeframe, so maybe rest ahead of the final was particularly vital. It took penalties for Argentina to eventually prevail over France, although they had dominated the majority of the game against an incredibly sluggish France side who suddenly burst into life in the final 10 minutes.
Women's World Cup 2023
The same final as we will see on Sunday. Spain beat England 1-0 having had an extra day of rest — four to three — although it is worth pointing out Spain had been forced to make the four-hour plane journey over from New Zealand after their semi, whereas England played both semi and final in Sydney.
Men's European Championship 2024
Spain versus England is becoming quite familiar in finals. Spain won this one, too — 1-0 — having had four days off compared to England's three.
The pattern is very clear. Go back further, to the 2011 Women's World Cup final, and Japan defeated the United States on penalties having played the second semi-final — although, like in Euro 2017, those semis were played on the same day. Therefore, you have to go back to the men's World Cup in 2010, 15 finals ago, to find a side triumphing in the final having played their semi-final the day after their opponents.
The pattern is not as strong when you go back further — perhaps because the level of physical intensity wasn't as demanding, and recovery days were less important. There are more tournaments when the semi-finals are played on the same day — at Euro 96, for example.
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Playing both semis on the same day would largely solve this problem, of course. But that seems unlikely for practical reasons; the games would have to be staggered so it is possible for television viewers to watch both, and given the chance of extra time and penalties, this would result in some unusual kick-off times that broadcasters would be unhappy about.
A less dramatic solution would be bringing the tournaments forward (again) and creating another day between semi-finals and final. There would still be one side with an extra day's rest, of course, but if the sides had five and four days between matches, rather than four and three, the effect would be less pronounced.
For this weekend's final, England will need all the help they can get in defeating Spain. Tactically and technically, the world champions have looked light years ahead of the reigning European champions throughout this tournament. England's trump card is their ability to enforce late spells of pressure, having introduced substitutes, and that might be particularly effective against tired players whose recovery period has been much shorter.