The Nationals declared their rebuild over. Then they stumbled toward last place

New York Times

3 days ago

As spring training began, Nationals manager Dave Martinez declared his organization's elongated rebuild complete.
In the five-plus seasons since Washington won the World Series in 2019, the organization hasn't even sniffed .500. Their 323-469 record post-championship tells the story of a one-time perennial contender whose top stars migrated out, be it for more lucrative contracts, retirement or because they were traded.
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What was left over was less tangible: the promise of a rebuild via the acquisition of young, controllable talent. What was built once in the nation's capital, they hoped, could quickly be rebuilt.
And that takes us back to Feb. 18 — the first day of full-squad workouts in West Palm Beach, Florida. Martinez, entering his eighth season as skipper in the District, made clear his belief that they were ready to fulfill that promise.
'I hear a lot about how our core guys are going to be really good. That they're coming,' Martinez said. 'And I really don't want to hear that anymore. I told them today, 'We're here. These are the core guys. … It's time to go out there and perform.'
Three months in, his words seem hollow. After splitting a doubleheader Wednesday, the 36-50 Nationals are on pace to finish with fewer wins than the 71 they collected in each of the previous two seasons.
Asked to explain the gulf between his expectations and his team's reality, Martinez could only muster a string of cliches.
'We've been in almost every game, we really have,' he said on Saturday from his office before a game against the Angels. 'We're going to put one foot forward every day. These guys don't quit. They play hard every day. It's 26 guys out there pulling on the same rope. They get after it. We've fallen short in some games, and we play hard.'
It's an answer that speaks to what is seemingly a larger issue: Things are going poorly, and the organization — led by the second-longest tenured manager-GM duo in baseball — has not presented a clear explanation why, or a way out of the malaise.
On-field, some of those reasons seem obvious. Their 5.84 bullpen ERA is the worst in the sport. They only have three above-replacement everyday hitters in their lineup. And the starting rotation, outside of ace MacKenzie Gore, has minimal swing-and-miss potential.
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Their identity was rooted in speed last season. But this year, Nationals baserunners are on pace for roughly 140 steals, compared to a league-leading 223 last year. All while getting thrown out at a higher clip.
Those are things anyone can identify from reading box scores or stat pages. What's at the root of these problems, however, is the real issue. And that's one that the team and its leadership don't seem fully prepared to address.
'I think we've been playing pretty good baseball. We beat good teams,' said Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams. 'We've shown what we can do; it's just whether or not we're going to keep going. We've got to keep our heads down, stay where our feet are and keep playing good baseball.'
Responsibility, ultimately, does not lie solely with the players. As The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal noted in May, the Nationals have many of the hallmarks of a stagnant organization, with leaders in safe jobs, reporting to an ownership group that is famously hands-off. On Monday, The Washington Post reported that the team doesn't invest in the same high-tech robotic pitching trainer as virtually everyone else. Player development has become a growing concern, as is scouting. These factors make completing a rebuild far more challenging and have left an incomplete team relying on a few standout players.
Abrams is one of those players, a core part of Washington's rebuild, and his .842 OPS to go along with 17 stolen bases means he's living up to his end of the bargain. But, despite his assertion, the Nationals have not been playing good baseball. At the time of his comments, they'd won just 4 of 19 games, which started with an 11-game losing streak.
Washington sits in last place in the National League East, 14.5 games back of the first-place Phillies and 10 games back of a playoff spot, with seven teams still to jump. Yet in the clubhouse, the players keep their heads down and hope; what else can they do?
'I don't think we're too far off,' said veteran first baseman Josh Bell. 'You look at wild-card teams in the hunt right now, and I don't think they're better teams than we are. They just have played better.'
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Bell was a part of the blockbuster trade that sent would-be franchise player Juan Soto to the Padres in 2022. In that sense, Bell's perspective is unlike anyone else's in the organization. He was dealt as part of the rebuild and returned nearly three years later, hoping to see the fruits of his departure.
Their clubhouse is filled with players who should be foundational building blocks, acquired by longtime president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo. That includes Dylan Crews, the No. 2 overall pick in 2023, and Keibert Ruiz, a catcher acquired in the Max Scherzer trade to be their backstop of the future. Then there's outfielder James Wood — already one of the top players in baseball at just 22 years old.
It's that talent that gives Bell the belief that they can make a miracle comeback in the 2025 season. But even if they don't, he said, something special could happen in D.C. over the next three to five years. The Nationals fanbase wants to believe that, too. Like Bell, they see the talent. Just not the evidence to back up the rosy outlook.
'I think that's part of the fan experience. Wanting more from your team,' Bell said. 'Even being with the Diamondbacks last year — a team that had come so close to winning it all — there was still the same atmosphere. Panic in the fanbase. But you're right where you want to be.'
But are they? FanGraphs gave the Nationals just a 2.9 percent chance of making the playoffs before this season started. Despite what Martinez said in February, it's not as though they are vastly underperforming expectations as a whole.
What makes their record more concerning is the context of how they arrived at it. Abrams, Gore and Wood are All-Star caliber right now. And it's in spite of those great players — all returns in the aforementioned Soto trade — that they sit beyond the outskirts of contention before the All-Star break.
'It's been fun to watch in spurts. And once we're consistent, I think that's where it's really gonna turn,' said starter Jake Irvin.
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As for why they haven't been consistent, Irvin was at more of a loss. 'That's harder to answer when you're in it. Sometimes you run into a good arm, just different baseball things. We have the pieces here, but we haven't all played together for a while. It's getting to learn each other's games.'
When the Nationals went on their World Series run six years ago, they did so only after coming back from the dead. They famously started that season 19-31 — 10 games back of the division, and 8.5 out of the wild card.
That team kept believing, kept playing, and ultimately made the postseason. That team, however, is not this team.
That group had Soto, Trea Turner and a healthy Anthony Rendon in the lineup, with Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg in the rotation. That group had the credibility of four postseasons in the prior seven years as evidence that they could turn things around.
This Nationals team has none of that. And now, it has to grapple with the hope of a rebuild ending, against the reality that it might just not be working at all.
'I think we can be better,' Martinez said, I really do.'
(Top photo of Martinez: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)