Japan's ruling coalition loses majority: What Trump-inspired right-wing party's gains mean

Indian Express

3 days ago

For the first time in decades, Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has lost its majority in the Upper House of Parliament following national elections held on Sunday (July 20). The Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba-led ruling coalition also included the centrist Komeito party.
Exit polls and early results indicated a shift in voter sentiment, driven by rising dissatisfaction with the government's approach to inflation, immigration, and foreign policy.
Ishiba has decided to remain in power but faces increasing pressure from within his party and new opposition forces. Most notably, the far-right political party Sanseito, which was founded only five years ago, has made historic gains. This election could signal a reshaping of Japan's political future.
Japan's political system is a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary form of government. The Emperor holds a ceremonial position, while executive power lies with the Prime Minister and the Cabinet.
Japan's legislature is called the National Diet, comprising two houses: the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the House of Councillors (Upper House). The public elects both their members.
The House of Representatives has more powers and prevails in discussions on passing budgets, but the House of Councillors, which had the recent elections, also plays an important role. Just like India's upper house, the Rajya Sabha, the House of Councillors is a permanent body and helps ensure political stability. It has 248 seats, half of which are contested every three years.
What happened in the recent elections?
With 125 seats going to polls, the PM Ishiba-led coalition won 47 seats — three short of what was needed to maintain a majority, in addition to the 75 seats they already held. He is now facing pressure to resign, since the result makes the conservative LDP a minority in both houses of the Diet.
Losing the Upper House majority could stall the passage of legislation, and reflects waning public support for the ruling party. The LDP has governed Japan almost uninterrupted since its founding in 1955.
The key emerging players are the right-wing Democratic Party and Sanseito, which won a record number of seats. The Democrats gained 13 seats, raising their total in the Upper House to 22, while Sanseito went from one to 15 seats.
Sanseito launched on YouTube in 2020, with criticism of Covid-19 vaccine mandates. It has since campaigned on a platform inspired by US President Donald Trump — describing immigration as a 'silent invasion' and calling to revive national pride. It is headed by the 47-year-old Sohei Kamiya, who gained support from young voters for his 'Japanese First' policy. He earlier said he was inspired by Trump's 'bold political style'.
The Democratic Party also gained support from young voters, but is more moderate than Sanseito.
What likely helped both of them was voter dissatisfaction with the LDP. Prices of the staple rice and other groceries have risen, with inflation over 3%. A key issue was the US imposing 25% tariffs on Japanese exports.
An increase in immigration, with foreigners now making up the highest-ever percentage of the total population at 3%, was also raised as an issue. The top sources of immigration in 2023 were China and Vietnam. Historically, Japan has been averse to the entry of foreigners, with some of the opposition linked to myths of racial superiority. This, even as record-low birth rates in recent years have raised the option of turning to immigration.
The electoral results are not only against the status quo, but signal a growing appetite for ideological alternatives. They also suggest that Japan's political centre may be narrowing, with implications for domestic and foreign policy.
According to Reuters, some of it has already begun. Days before the vote, Ishiba's administration announced a new taskforce to fight 'crimes and disorderly conduct' by foreign nationals, and the LDP promised a target of 'zero illegal foreigners'.
Sanseito has also advocated implementing more conservative educational and cultural policies. A CNN report said it has urged greater defence capabilities, warning that Japan was 'surrounded' by nuclear-armed countries and thus needs a 'deterrent force' while pursuing long-term denuclearisation.
Internationally, Japan's tilt towards right-wing parties aligns with a broader trend: far-right parties and leaders have gained ground in countries like the United States, Italy, and the Netherlands in the last decade. While Japan's context is unique, with a history of postwar pacifism and tight immigration controls, the political rhetoric now resembles populist movements elsewhere.
The writer is a student who is a summer intern at The Indian Express.