
Starmerism is disintegrating
Labour's declining support in office should therefore be viewed as continuing a trend that started before they even gained power. The 'loveless landslide' of 2024 wasn't a vote for the 'grown ups' to quietly re-assert the politics of yesteryear, but a clear signal that every vote, and every media cycle, would be a battle. The incoming government, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves most of all, weren't paying attention – which meant the opening months of their administration was defined by free silk ties and Taylor Swift tickets.
To all intents and purposes they still haven't adapted. At a time of parliamentary breakaways, populism, and electoral fragmentation, what is the constituency of this government? In an age of Zohran Mamdani outlining complex policy issues with a lav mic in hand, and Nigel Farage reaching millions on TikTok (and Cameo), what precisely is its communications strategy? How do they craft their message to a range of audiences? And, most importantly, what is their message?
These are no longer abstract questions for insiders, or political rivals with an axe to grind. Last week the Government, with a majority of 156, came close to losing a second reading in parliament – and proceeded to change its landmark welfare reforms in a matter of hours. The last time the government lost a second reading for a piece of domestic legislation was in 1986. For the bond markets that signalled something critical: when it comes to delivering cuts, this government's majority is an illusion. If balancing the books in the autumn requires £30 billion, as is widely believed, that therefore means more tax rises, or a break with the fiscal rules. There is simply no consent within the parliamentary Labour party for substantial reductions to welfare spending. Nor, I suspect, other areas such as policing and local government.
That is the problem that now besets this government. Not only was there a lack of clarity about Britain's problems with the electorate before last July – from the massive costs of servicing the public debt to the lack of productivity growth over the last 17 years – but with the party's membership and candidates too. 'I would simply grow the economy,' and 'The Tories are incompetent,' were essentially the positions of Labour in opposition. As many commentators said, including myself, if growth failed to materialise then Treasury rules would necessitate 'fiscal consolidation': tax rises, and cuts to public spending.
Many Labour MPs didn't sign up for that, though. Marie Tidball, an extraordinary advocate for people with disabilities, presumably didn't enter parliament to cut Personal Independence Payments. Beth Winter, a Christian socialist, doesn't want to make poor families poorer still. It's possible that even Keir Starmer hadn't worked out the implications of his party's economic platform before entering No 10. Such trivial concerns are seemingly outsourced almost exclusively to the Chancellor.
All of which makes the next four months, let alone the next four years, difficult to predict. The autumn budget will be another serious setback for the party, further damaging Reeves' credibility, in all likelihood for good. But it is the Government's response which could be existential. Get things even slightly wrong (including by impelling the Chancellor's exit) and the bond markets will punish them. History tells us it is unusual for a Chancellor to go and the PM not to be irreversibly tarnished.
Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe
Even if Starmer survives the autumn, and the winter, which seems probable given his majority, next May brings another momentous challenge. With elections in every London borough, across England's large cities, and Scotland and Wales too, the government could be overwhelmed by challengers to both their left and right. In London, the Greens will want to make gains in places like Southwark and Hackney (focus on their overall percentage as much as councillors won), while Reform will be chasing Labour votes in Havering and Barking and Dagenham.
Right now, Keir Starmer's party is also polling third in Scotland and Wales, behind Reform in the party's historic Celtic heartlands. The question of a new party of the left, meanwhile, is somewhat moot – even if the nature of a Corbyn-Sultana vehicle remains unclear. Whether it takes national form or not, by May expect a profusion of successful left-independents and hyper-localist parties. With or without parliamentary leadership, they will cause major problems for Labour.
Then there's the small matter of party finances. This year could see Labour's membership fall beneath that of Reform; indeed that may already have happened since the party's general secretary recently refused to disclose membership data to the National Executive Committee. A falling membership goes hand-in-hand with downward finances. According to LabourList, the party is unable to balance its books this year, and will need 'at least £4 million' to fight elections in 2026. With major elections looming – and the party's vote being nibbled by at least five parties, a lack of funding further hampers effective campaigning.
Abysmal polling, a national crisis after the autumn, dreadful results in May and organisational finances in disarray: a party doom loop starts to look likely. All of which means that, by next September at the latest, Labour will need to conjure something new: a different leader, a drastic change in policy direction, or both. But that will almost certainly not happen, as justified caution with regard to the rising costs of government debt is joined by the absence of an ideological apparatus to make sense of what is happening. The sell of Starmerism was simple, dangerously so in fact. We now know that a country with little growth, an ageing population and fragmenting politics, needed more than rhetorical allusions to competence and a nice haircut.
After Zarah Sultana posted about her departure from the party on X, Gurinder Josan – himself a Labour MP for Smethwick, and a key player within the Labour First faction (which sit on the right of the party) – counter-posed 'far-left' ideology and the 'serious business of government'. But that is entirely the problem for Starmer. In a world of shifting geopolitical realities, energy transition and demographic ageing you need an analytical lens – dare I say an ideology – to understand things. Until the Labour leadership grasp that insight, the government will remain rudderless. Don't bet on that happening before the next general election though. It would require a capacity for self-criticism – and a renunciation of everything Starmer's political career has been built upon.
[See also: Could Gaza unite the new left against Keir Starmer?]
Related

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

Rhyl Journal
an hour ago
- Rhyl Journal
Public inquiry begins into ‘horrific' Southport murders
Chairman Sir Adrian Fulford, a former vice-president of the Court of Appeal, will begin proceedings with an opening statement at Liverpool Town Hall. And on Wednesday, the inquiry will hear evidence from four families whose children were injured in the attack. A key question for the inquiry is whether the attack could or should have been prevented, given what was known about the killer. Axel Rudakubana was given a life sentence in January, with a minimum term of 52 years – one of the highest minimum terms on record – for murdering Alice da Silva Aguiar, nine, Bebe King, six, and Elsie Dot Stancombe, seven, at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class in Southport on July 29 last year. The 18-year-old also attempted to murder eight other children, who cannot be named for legal reasons, as well as class instructor Leanne Lucas and businessman John Hayes. Sir Adrian said: 'Today, just less than a year since one of the most horrific crimes in our country's history took place in Southport, we open the independent inquiry into the events surrounding the attack and events leading up to it. 'Tomorrow I will then begin to hear from some of the families whose children were injured on that terrible day. 'We will hold two days of hearings this week and then resume hearings on September 8 at Liverpool Town Hall when I will hear from more of the victims, survivors and their families. 'My focus throughout this inquiry will be a thorough and forensic investigation of all the circumstances surrounding the attack and the events leading up to it. 'This will include the perpetrator's history and interactions with all the relevant agencies, how they shared information and responded to the risks that he posed. I will then move into a second phase next year where I will consider the wider issues of children and young people being drawn into extreme violence. 'As chair of this inquiry, I am committed to proceeding at pace and with rigour whilst balancing the needs of those who live with the continued trauma of what happened in Southport in July 2024.' Home Secretary Yvette Cooper announced the public inquiry in January to help understand what went wrong and prevent any repetition of similar incidents. Three separate referrals were made to the Government's counter-terror programme Prevent about Rudakubana's behaviour in the years before the attack, as well as six separate calls to police. A review into the Prevent referrals published in February found there was sufficient risk posed by Rudakubana to keep his cases within Prevent active but that these were closed prematurely while too much focus was placed on a lack of distinct ideology. The inquiry will draw on evidence from interviews with witnesses and disclosure from 15 organisations, including MI5, Counter-Terrorism Policing, NHS England and Merseyside Police. The widespread rioting and civil unrest following the murders is not being examined by the inquiry. Rachael Wong, director at law firm Bond Turner, representing the three bereaved families, said: 'We know that nothing the inquiry reveals or subsequently recommends will change the unimaginable loss felt by the families of Elsie, Alice and Bebe, but we all now have a responsibility to ensure that something like this never happens again. 'We will be doing all we can to assist the chair through the inquiry and uncover the truth. 'It is only through intense public scrutiny that real change can be effected.' The inquiry begins at 2pm.

Rhyl Journal
an hour ago
- Rhyl Journal
Long-running road and rail projects to go ahead after year-long pause
The decision will see major road and rail projects outside London and the South East go ahead, backed by £92 billion from last month's spending review. Most have been in the works for several years, and many have already received planning permission. But their future was thrown into doubt last year when Labour announced a review of transport infrastructure projects, saying the previous Conservative government had promised to deliver some without putting enough money forward. In a statement to Parliament, then-transport secretary Louise Haigh accused the Tories of leaving a £2.9 billion gap between what it had announced and what it had funded. Almost a year after launching its internal review, the Government has now decided to press on with five major road schemes, five rail projects and 28 smaller road schemes, saying they will cut journey times, ease congestion, create jobs and support new housing. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: 'Transport is the backbone of our economy, which is why we are giving them the record funding boost they need, putting taxpayers' money where it matters most and making everyday journeys easier. 'With over £92 billion investment, including the biggest ever boost for city regions in the North and Midlands, we're delivering the schemes that fast-track economic growth and jobs, connect communities, and will help us build 1.5 million new homes, as we deliver our plan for change.' Preparatory work for some of the projects has continued despite the pause, but Tuesday's announcement means they can now proceed in full. For some projects, supporters will hope the backing marks the final stage of a long-running process. One, a widening of the A66 Trans-Pennine route, was first proposed in 2016, while the reopening of the railway between Portishead and Bristol has been the subject of a 25-year campaign. The A66 upgrade was given planning permission in March 2024, but was delayed by an ultimately unsuccessful legal challenge and put on hold by the new Government's review. Construction is now expected to start this winter. Former prime minister Rishi Sunak, whose constituency is served by the A66, welcomed the announcement, saying it would improve 'journey reliability' given the existing road's 'poor safety record'. The Portishead line, reopening a railway that was closed in the 1960s, was also thrown into question by the review, but then West of England mayor Dan Norris announced funding had been secured in February this year. On Tuesday, the Government announced it would invest another £27 million in the project, which it said would 'connect an additional 50,000 people' and support 'a significant new housing development'. Other major road schemes confirmed on Tuesday include the M54-M6 link, the M60 Simister Island junction near Manchester, the A38 Derby junctions and improvements to the A46 Newark bypass. Both the Simister Island and Newark bypass projects are yet to receive planning permission. The Government has also confirmed its commitment to build new stations at Wellington and Cullompton in the South West and Haxby in Yorkshire, which had all been part of the Conservatives' Restoring Your Railway project that was scrapped when Labour came to power. Funding for the stations, along with the Midlands Rail Hub plan to add 300 trains a day to the West Midlands network, was previously announced at last month's spending review. Other, smaller, schemes include improvements to the Middlewich Eastern Bypass, in Cheshire, and the A382 between Drumbridges and Newton Abbot, in Devon. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the investments were 'long overdue' and would 'transform local communities and improve living standards across the country'. But the Conservatives accused the Government of using the announcement as a 'distraction tactic'. Shadow transport secretary Gareth Bacon said: 'Labour are re-announcing projects that are already under way in order to distract from their failing economic strategy of high tax and high borrowing. They just don't have a plan. 'Rachel Reeves's catastrophic economic mismanagement and Keir Starmer's total inability to control his own party has led to a string of unfunded U-turns, meaning that more tax rises are coming.'

Rhyl Journal
an hour ago
- Rhyl Journal
Near-Dickensian poverty levels for some children in England, warns commissioner
Black mould in a bedroom and rats in a kitchen were among some of the examples given by young people for a new report said to reveal the 'real hardship' facing some families. While some feel a sense of shame over their situation, Dame Rachel de Souza said it is 'society at large and decision-makers that should be ashamed of the fact that children don't have enough money'. The latest official estimates, for the year to March 2024, suggest there were a record 4.45 million children living in poverty in the UK. The Government is expected to publish a child poverty strategy in autumn, and a multitude of campaign groups have said it must contain a commitment to do away with the two-child benefit limit. The limit, which came into effect under the Conservatives in April 2017, restricts child tax credit and universal credit (UC) to the first two children in most households. Organisations working in the sector argue that 109 children across the UK are pulled into poverty by the policy every day and that an estimated 350,000 children would be lifted out of poverty immediately if it was scrapped. But comments by Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson at the weekend have raised concerns the policy might not be done away with, amid financial pressures following the U-turn on welfare reforms. Ms Phillipson said spending decisions have been made 'harder' after the watering down of the welfare reforms. Pressed on whether the chances of the benefit cap going are now slimmer, Ms Phillipson told BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg: 'The decisions that have been taken in the last week do make decisions, future decisions harder. 'But all of that said, we will look at this collectively in terms of all of the ways that we can lift children out of poverty.' Estimates for the cost of scrapping the policy vary, from around £2.6 billion to £3.5 billion by the end of this Parliament (2029/30). Dame Rachel – whose office was commissioned to carry out its report to feed into the Government's work in the area – said while there is 'no quick fix to ending child poverty', she feels it is 'very clear that any child poverty strategy must be built on the foundation of scrapping the two-child limit'. She added that a new approach is needed which 'stops sidelining children's voices', saying that 'only by listening to children, and acting in response, will we get close to solving those problems'. The commissioner said in recent years she has seen a change in children's comments, noting that issues traditionally seen as 'adult' concerns 'are now keenly felt by children, who see their parents' worries and the struggles they face: the hours they work, the homes they live in and the ability to put food on the table'. She added: 'Children shared harrowing accounts of hardship, with some in almost-Dickensian levels of poverty. 'They don't talk about 'poverty' as an abstract concept but about not having the things that most people would consider basic: a safe home that isn't mouldy or full or rats, with a bed big enough to stretch out in, 'luxury' food like bacon, a place to do homework, heating, privacy in the bathroom and being able to wash, having their friends over, and not having to travel hours to school.' While commending 'some positive steps by the Government to get more money into families' pockets', she urged 'bold, practical measures that break the link between a child's background and their opportunities'. The commissioner's report, based on the experiences of 128 children across the country between January and March this year, noted a range of concerns including lack of access to quality, healthy food and living in cramped and poor conditions. As well as calling for the two-child benefit limit to be scrapped, Dame Rachel urged a commitment to a so-called 'triple-lock' for uprating all child-related benefits, reforms to ensure families are not being housed in temporary bed and breakfast accommodation for longer than the legal six-week limit, free bus travel for all school-aged children in England and better safety measures in areas with children in low-income families including increased street lighting, and more neighbourhood watch-style initiatives. A Government spokesperson said: 'We are determined to bring down child poverty. We've just announced a new £1 billion package to reform crisis support, including funding to ensure the poorest children do not go hungry outside of term time. 'This comes alongside the expansion to free breakfast clubs, investing £39 billion in social and affordable housing, increasing the national minimum wage and supporting 700,000 of the poorest families by introducing a Fair Repayment Rate on Universal Credit deductions. 'As part of our plan for change, the Child Poverty Taskforce will publish an ambitious strategy later this year to ensure we deliver fully-funded measures that tackle the structural and root causes of child poverty across the country.'