Will the real Iran policy stand up?

Politico

08-05-2025

With help from Nahal Toosi, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman
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The Trump administration isn't shying away from discussing the technical details of its desired nuclear deal with Tehran. But top officials are causing some confusion about where exactly the White House stands on enrichment.
On Wednesday, Vice President JD VANCE said Iran can have a civil nuclear program and implied the U.S. could allow Tehran to enrich uranium.
'You can't have the kind of enrichment program that allows you to get to a nuclear weapon, and that's where we draw the line,' Vance said.
But that's a bit different from comments by Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO last week that Tehran 'has to walk away' from enrichment and must import enriched uranium for its nuclear power program. A central Republican attack on the Obama-era nuclear deal was that President BARACK OBAMA's negotiating team gave in on enrichment and allowed Tehran to enrich uranium in the final deal, though only to 3.67 percent.
It seems the matter is still up for debate. President DONALD TRUMP added Wednesday, 'We haven't made that decision yet,' as to whether Iran could enrich uranium for a civil nuclear program.
Meanwhile, Trump has signaled he wants to go after Iran's centrifuges. In an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt on Wednesday, he threatened to bomb Iran if a deal isn't reached, saying, 'There are only two alternatives there: Blow them up nicely or blow them up viciously.'
BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU, who leads Iran work at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, draws a distinction between the 'political end-state' Trump has outlined and the technical details about how to achieve that. Trump, he argued, has been clear in his desire to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, while leaving the technical details vague.
'The people around him now are trying to fill in the technical contours, and sometimes that looks like it could go one way. Sometimes it looks like it can go another way,' Ben Taleblu said. 'But I would say the political logic of this is the president is keeping his options open.'
There are strategic advantages to that ambiguity, says JON ALTERMAN, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. But it also 'raises the question of whether the administration has a vigorous process in place to evaluate the various proposals being put forward by an Iranian negotiating team with decades of experience,' Alterman argued.
The hope in some GOP corners is that the final deal will move toward dismantling the enrichment program and pushing Iran to only import enriched uranium. On Capitol Hill today, Sens. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) argued that Iran should only be granted a '123 agreement' with the United States once its nuclear program is deterred ('123 agreements' refer to section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, which allows the U.S. to collaborate with other countries on peaceful nuclear projects).
Graham in particular warned that without dismantlement, Iran could remain in a position to get a nuclear weapon.
'I'm okay with Iran having peaceful nuclear power. I'm okay with them building new nuclear power plants. As long as they don't enrich that. The nuclear fuel supply comes from outside of Iran. It will be completely controlled,' Graham said. 'Anything short of that would be a bad deal. Anything short of that, I think, would ensure over time they get a nuclear weapon.'
The Inbox
GAZA RUNS ON EMPTY: Gaza communal kitchens are shuttering as food supplies run out and hunger worsens in the war-torn enclave.
Per Reuters' Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Mahmoud Issa, that includes kitchens run by nongovernmental organization World Central Kitchen. The disruptions will reduce the number of free meals available in Gaza by up to 500,000, and they come as Israel has restricted entry of humanitarian aid to the territory as a way to get Hamas to surrender faster.
The news comes as the Israeli government faces concerted pressure from Democrats in Washington to resume aid to the territory. Ninety-six House Democrats wrote to Israeli Ambassador to the United States YECHIEL LEITER, urging the Israeli government to alleviate suffering in Gaza.
'Cutting off or severely restricting aid to Gaza harms Israel's long-term security,' wrote the Democrats in the letter led by Reps. AMI BERA (D-Calif.) and SALUD CARBAJAL (D-Calif.). 'It is a stain on Israel's international reputation, that jeopardizes efforts to normalize relations with neighboring Arab states, who have condemned this action.'
Israel appears to be moving toward resuming aid. Special envoy STEVE WITKOFF briefed the U.N. Security Council on a new Israeli plan to resume the distribution of aid to Gaza, per a person familiar with the briefing, who was granted anonymity to freely discuss a sensitive topic, confirming reports from Axios. Israel's security cabinet approved the effort earlier this week.
INDIA-PAK DRONE WARFARE: India and Pakistan accused each other today of deploying drones and missiles against each other, as fears mount that a full-on conflict will emerge between the two nuclear powers.
Rubio spoke with both India's foreign minister and Pakistan's prime minister today, per State Department readouts of the calls. In those calls, he urged Pakistan to take 'concrete steps to end any support for terrorist groups,' while expressing 'sorrow' for civilian casualties. Rubio also 'emphasized the need for immediate de-escalation' to both countries.
ABOUT ANOTHER MIDEAST NUCLEAR DEAL: Saudi Arabia has been pursuing a deal with the United States about establishing its own civilian nuclear deal, and per Reuters, the Trump administration is making the process for Riyadh much easier.
Reuters' Pesha Magid reports that the U.S. is no longer demanding that Saudi Arabia recognize Israel as a condition for allowing it to have a civilian nuclear program. It's a major concession from the United States, which previously linked nuclear talks to a wider agreement between Riyadh and Washington to shore up defense ties and bolster Israel's standing in the region.
It reflects the Trump administration's desire to keep warm ties with Riyadh. Saudi Arabia will be one of the countries Trump visits on his first major trip abroad next week. And Energy Secretary CHRIS WRIGHT said that the two countries were on a 'pathway' to a nuclear deal during Wright's visit to the country in April.
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Keystrokes
LAWMAKERS AIM TO FILL WORKFORCE HOLES: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is out with legislation aimed at tackling worker shortages in major defense-related fields — such as manufacturing, cybersecurity and logistics — by seeking out early-career military personnel who are medically disqualified from service or people unable to join up for other reasons.
New bicameral legislation — introduced by Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) and Reps. JEN KIGGANS (R-Va.) and JOE COURTNEY (D-Conn.) — would require the Pentagon to create a pathway for service members who are medically disqualified from service during their initial accession or training to enter civilian jobs they're qualified for in DOD and the services.
It also would require DOD to provide information to people medically ineligible to join up about employment opportunities in the defense industrial base, cybersecurity, emergency and disaster preparedness and other fields in U.S. national interests.
The bill, having the backing of two prominent senators, could make its way into federal law. But it's unclear how the White House stands on the issue, and opposition from Trump could hamstring congressional leadership.
The Complex
BUDGET BATTLE LOOMS: The Trump administration last week released the broad contours of its defense budget proposal — which suggests keeping base Pentagon spending flat while relying on Republicans' reconciliation push to reach Trump's $1 trillion goal — and lawmakers are already mulling whether that number is enough.
Many GOP defense hawks were critical of the plan, arguing the one-time $150 billion increase in their party-line megabill must be paired with significant hikes in the annual Pentagon budget. But top Republican lawmakers aren't in alignment just yet as they wait for a more detailed budget.
'I can't predict what yet what will come out of approps, but we need more information from the services about how the number went from going to be a big increase to essentially being flat funded,' Senate Appropriations Chair SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) said. 'And that's quite a difference.'
House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) said this week he'd prefer a 5 percent increase above inflation, which would bring Pentagon spending to roughly $950 billion before any reconciliation efforts are factored in.
There may also be bipartisan support for larger defense budgets. Senate Armed Services top Democrat JACK REED signaled he may back a push for more money.
'We have a lot of challenges. And I think there's places where we can cut at DOD, but we probably have to raise the topline,' Reed said. 'But we have to also pay for it, which we don't do a lot.'
On the Hill
SFRC DEMS CALL FOUL: Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee boycotted committee proceedings today, accusing Republicans of smashing through standards about nomination hearings.
'Unfortunately, today the majority did not agree to the committee's long-standing rules and traditions to keep the minority properly informed. Therefore, Democrats did not participate in today's proceedings,' said Shaheen, the top Democrat on the committee, in a statement. 'Moving forward, it is my hope this committee can adhere to its long-standing tradition of bipartisanship.'
A Democratic committee staffer, granted anonymity to speak freely about committee dynamics, pointed the finger at pressure from the White House. The White House wanted the meeting to go ahead, even though the majority and minority hadn't come to an agreement on the agenda for today's business meetings, the staffer said. The staffer emphasized that a good relationship exists between Shaheen and Chair JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) but that the White House pressure was inappropriate.
'I'm disappointed that my Democratic colleagues chose not to attend our business meeting to fill sorely needed national security positions this morning,' Risch told NatSec Daily. 'Despite their attempts to disrupt this process, the nominees have passed unanimously and will next head to the Senate floor for confirmation. I am cautiously optimistic that the bipartisan work we've done this congress will continue in the coming weeks.'
Broadsides
SIMION'S SUPPORT: The far-right candidate who came in first in Romania's presidential election is saying he won't back further military aid to Ukraine, as fears grow that ascendant far-right parties in Europe could undermine continental support for Kyiv three years into Russia's invasion.
In an interview with our colleague Max Griera, front-runner GEORGE SIMION said he personally wouldn't vote in favor of further aid to Ukraine, arguing that Kyiv hasn't treated the country's minority Romanian population well.
'They are behaving like Russians in many ways,' Simion said. 'So, the first thing I must do is solve these problems with the Ukrainian side because we as Romanians contributed a lot in the war effort.'
That said, Simion said he'd defer to the United States and 'consult in defense matters with the American side.' He explained, 'I will take the same stances and will support whatever the Trump administration will do because they are the leaders of NATO and, from the security and defense point of view, the Americans didn't disappoint us.'
Such a policy would be a big reversal from one of Kyiv's biggest allies. Romania hosted training camps for Ukrainian fighter pilots and was a major provider of support for its neighbor.
Transitions
— Trump has nominated KIRSTEN DAVIES to serve as the top tech role at the Defense Department, according to a notice sent to Congress on Tuesday. Davies held top cybersecurity roles at companies like Estée Lauder and was most recently the chief information security officer at consumer packaged goods company Unilever. She also held cyber roles at tech company Hewlett-Packard and Siemens.
— ERICA LONERGAN has joined the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation as an adjunct fellow. She was previously a lead writer of the 2023 U.S. Defense Department Cyber Strategy.
— STEPHANIE SUTTON is joining the Center for American Progress as chief operating officer. She most recently was acting assistant secretary of the Bureau of Global Public Affairs at the State Department.
— FRANCISCO BENCOSME has joined the U.S.-China Business Council as government affairs director. He was previously senior policy adviser and China policy lead for the United States Agency for International Development.
—The Trump administration has nominated MATTHEW ANDERSON to serve as the next NASA deputy administrator, according to a Senate notice. Anderson currently works as an executive at government contractor CACI and serves as the chief growth officer of the Space Force Association, a nonprofit, according to his LinkedIn. He was previously an Air Force pilot.
— Academy Securities added retired Lt. Gen. LEWIS CRAPAROTTA to its advisory board and geopolitical intelligence group.
— AI-powered training firm C2 Technologies named former Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO to its advisory board.
— AeroVironment promoted CHURCH HUTTON to chief growth officer from senior vice president for government relations and communications. He is a former SAC-D staff member and executive at Mercury Systems.
— KELLY MAGSAMEN, the former chief of staff to then-Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, will lead the Asia Group's newly launched Indo-Pacific Defense Incubator initiative.
— Retired Gen. MIKE MINIHAN, the former Air Mobility Command chief and head of Mavericks Advisors, joined Radia as a strategic adviser.
What to Read
— Maria Tsvetkova, Polina Nikolskaya, Anton Zverev and Ryan McNeill, Reuters: Russia building major new explosives facility as Ukraine war drags on
— Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko, Foreign Affairs: Why Peace Talks Fail in Ukraine
— Scott Calvert, The Wall Street Journal: Locals Fight Back After Naval Academy Removes Books in DEI Cull
Tomorrow Today
— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 10 a.m.: The Legacy of Corruption: Karim Massimov and the Nazarbayev System
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Insights for Future Conflicts from the Russia-Ukraine War
— Johns Hopkins University Gupta-Klinsky India Institute, 1 p.m.: India Conference 2025
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who confuse us with their unclear negotiation tactics.
CORRECTION: Wednesday's newsletter misstated Matt Pearl's title at Jenner & Block. He is 'of counsel' at Jenner & Block.