The SNP remains dangerously oblivious to the perils of a population drunk on taxpayer-funded welfare
In its quest for 'a wellbeing economy that is more inclusive and supportive of all its people, which can deliver economic growth that is more sustainable and, crucially, shared fairly', the SNP-led Scottish Government has been exploring a form of universal basic income for some time.
In 2021, it commissioned and funded the work for a report on the programme, tasking 'an independent Expert Group to consider the design and delivery of this innovative and potentially transformational policy'.
The final report was published last month.
According to the recommendations, the payments – rounded to the nearest £500 per year – would be as follows: £11,500 for a single adult, £20,000 for a couple and £28,000 for a couple with one child or a single parent with two children.
'Assuming full take-up of benefits and no behavioural effects', reads the report, 'it [is] estimated that this would cost a net £8.1 billion per year'.
And how is this lofty ambition to be funded? Through measures such as reducing Scottish income tax thresholds; or by increasing council tax by up to 22.5 per cent (plus inflation); or indeed by reducing the Scottish Income Tax personal allowance by £5,000 from £12,570 to £7,570.
From increasing national insurance contributions to slapping a 10 per cent rise on fuel, alcohol and tobacco duty, every option involves a significant rise in people's tax bills.
This has always been a leading criticism of any form of universal basic income programme: in order to scale it up to a meaningful level, the cost to the ordinary taxpayer becomes prohibitively high.
Programmes such as these are designed and sold on the results of universal basic income models from around the world. Not a single one of these can be considered a clear success with trials conducted only on a narrow section of a population. As Deloitte's Chief Economist Ian Stewart pointed out in his analysis of some of those schemes, 'nobody knows how an entire population and economy would respond to the implementation of a UBI. The uncertainties of introducing it across a whole country would be enormous.'
The SNP's Social Justice Secretary, Shirley-Anne Somerville, has said there are 'no plans to change tax policy'. But, rather confusingly, she has also said she 'welcomed the report', providing no indication on how else, if not through tax rises, the Scottish Government can possibly hope to act on its findings.
The politicians on this side of the border are only very belatedly waking up to the perils of a population drunk on taxpayer-funded welfare support. For the Scottish Government to continue to stubbornly entertain the Minimum Income Guarantee at a devastating cost – not just to the ordinary taxpayers but the entire country – seems desperately reckless.
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