How Jaishankar's Book Foresaw Trump's Megalomacy, China And Pakistan's Psy War

News18

19-05-2025

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The good news is that the chaos would not have caught the MEA and its boss by surprise. The better news is that much of what we see around us are signs of India's steady rise
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's man steering India's relationship with the world, external affairs minister S Jaishankar, predicted the choppy seas the nation and his government are currently navigating in a book he wrote in 2020 and updated in 2022. His 'The India Way' is practically a premonition of the turbulence India faces after US President Donald Trump's whimsical retaliatory tariffs and India's military showdown with Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack.
The good news is that the chaos would not have caught the Ministry of External Affairs and its boss by surprise. The better news is that much of what we see around us are signs of India's steady rise in the world order.
The bad news is that in an increasingly multipolar world with two major powers, the US and China, fighting to retain their pre-eminence, India will face growing resistance as it grows.
'As a rising power, India will continuously rub against an international order, parts of which may not always be amenable to its rise. Indeed, Newton's third law of politics dictates that the process of emergence will get tougher with time," Jaishankar writes in his updated preface to the book. 'The challenge we face is not just from competing powers, but also a phenomenon of freezing advantageous moments by those dominant in an era. Even seventy-five years later, we are still operating in a 1945 framework from which India was excluded. It is manifested in multiple ways across broad domains. India is particularly disadvantaged in this regard vis-a-vis China."
In the next chapter, he evokes the imagery from Satyajit Ray's iconic movie Shatranj Ke Khiladi of two nawabs engrossed in their chess game, oblivious to British takeover of their kingdoms. He compares it to India's slow start and frittering away advantage to China after 1947 which has come back to haunt us.
'An unintended consequence was to give China more strategic space in Asia. Another is the delayed economic reforms that were undertaken a decade and a half after this elf China. And far more ambivalently. The fifteen-year gap continues to put India at a great disadvantage," he writes.
Jaishankar's book also pre-empts Trump's mercurial diplomacy. 'It would be a mistake to approach the Trump Administration using the logic of previous experience with predecessors," it states.
He then places America's policy in context: 'The US is back to the strategic drawing board as it reinvents itself. Its interim approach is of greater individualism, more insularity and sharp retrenchment…So, we hear a potent narrative of unfair trade, excessive immigration and ungrateful allies. And market access, technology strengths, military dominance and the power of the dollar now seem to be the ingredients of an emerging solution."
The US and the world's both denouement and predicament seem to arise from failed globalisation and resurgent nationalism.
'…globalisation that elevated 'just in time' to a religion. Politically, it spawned a borderless with an entitlement to intervene. Socially, it encouraged a global elite who could comfortably sit in judgment over the world. Diplomatically, it enabled gaming the system and weaponising the normal. Technologically, we entered an existence of great promise and huge vulnerabilities. Never mind that each had a cost, until of course the aggregate risk made it hard to duck the difficult questions," Jaishankar argues.
He prescribes a balance to deal with the new world: 'In a more nationalistic world, diplomacy will use competition to extract as much gains from as many ties as possible. But there is, nevertheless, a strong case for India also supporting a greater sense of order. Our own growth model and political outlook intrinsically favour rules-based behaviour. India must make a virtue of reconciling global good with national interest."
Jaishankar's book also makes a case against the Nehruvian non-alignment.
'Strategic autonomy can no longer be visualised as keeping a safe distance from dominant players…It is instead a derivative of capabilities, allowing the fending off of pressures and the exercise of choices. Nor should it be seen as autarky, a national state that is unsustainable in reality," he writes. 'On the contrary, more vigorous participation in the world economy due to higher performance gives a country many more cards in the games that nations play. For India, that is summed up by 'Atmanirbhar Bharat', 'Make in India' and 'Make for the World'."
Interestingly, writing at least five years ago, the external affairs minister spelt out how Bharat's enemies would exploit its vulnerabilities.
'Given the transformational impact of technology in our lives, it is also natural that it should have a deep impact on national security. In a globalised world, the flow of ideas and influences makes it difficult to limit security concerns to national borders. That is not to say that the orthodox challenges have gone away. A diverse and pluralistic society like India should never forget that its fault lines could be exploited by competitors," he writes.
We are witnessing in real time the impact of a barrage of fake news and propaganda from across the border during the ongoing India-Pakistan skirmish. India may have hit targets at will deep inside Pakistan, but technology has made it possible for Pakistan to hit any place in India with misinformation, just to confuse and confound.
Finally, the chapter 'Krishna's Choice' rings prophetic about how India has made dramatic departures from its wobbly policy against Pakistani aggression, called out its neighbour's nuclear blackmail, and raised the cost of its policy of terror in the past 11 years leading up to the current conflict.
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'The best known of the dilemmas in the Mahabharata relates to a determination to implement key policies without being discouraged by the collateral consequences of the action. The example, of course, is that of the most accomplished Pandava warrior, Arjuna, as he enters the battlefield. Undergoing a crisis of confidence, he is unable to summon up the determination to take on kinfolk ranged against his interests. While he is eventually persuaded by Lord Krishna to do his duty, there are underlying aspects of Arjuna's behaviour that apply to state players in international relations. This is not to suggest disregard of cost-benefit analysis. But sometimes, even when there is a pathway, it may not be taken due to lack of resolve or a fear of costs."
Jaishankar uses the Mahabharata metaphor to suggest India is no longer a 'soft state'. It has overcome the lack of imagination and fear of risks. Like Arjuna, it is fully persuaded by Krishna about its dharma and unshakeable in its resolve against terrorism.
First Published:
May 19, 2025, 08:37 IST
News opinion How Jaishankar's Book Foresaw Trump's Megalomacy, China And Pakistan's Psy War