US consumers happier about finances, expect stable inflation, New York Fed says
As of June, inflation one year from now was expected to be 3%, down from the expected 3.2% in May, while the outlooks at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons were unchanged at 3% and 2.6%, respectively, according to the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Amid the calm outlook for future price increases, the survey found that respondents had "markedly" upgraded their assessment of their personal financial situation relative to last year, while noting credit had grown easier to access. Respondents also upgraded their expectations about the state of their financial situations a year from now.
The survey found mixed expectations for future earnings and income in June, while the outlook for employment improved.
Although the New York Fed found in its poll that the public's outlook for inflation was little changed last month, households projected in June an acceleration in year-ahead gains in the cost of gasoline, medical care, college and rent, while the expected rise in food costs held steady relative to May.
Near-term inflation expectations recorded by the New York Fed have been volatile this year as President Donald Trump launched an aggressive trade war against many U.S. trading partners. The president's trade agenda, which features the imposition of high tariffs on imported goods, is widely expected to push up inflation and depress growth and hiring.
Those import levies helped drive up near-term expected inflation, and as the president appears to have capitulated so far on the most draconian of his levies, worries about higher inflation have eased. Other surveys like the University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment have also shown reduced worries about future inflation.
Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations have remained mostly stable, which is good news for Fed officials, who believe that development suggests confidence that over the long run inflation will not be a major concern.
Fed officials, however, are expecting higher inflation this year due to the tariffs, which they expect to wane starting next year. Fed officials penciled in two rate cuts for this year at their policy meeting last month but offered little guidance as to when that might happen. Some Fed officials were eyeing the July 29-30 policy meeting as a good time for a rate cut, but solid job market data for June appears to have taken that idea off the board.
In comments after the June 17-18 meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem."
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