
Ishiba may meet top U.S. tariff negotiator Scott Bessent in Tokyo this week
The prime minister is understood to be aiming for a path to agreement in the ongoing bilateral tariff negotiations by meeting with the U.S. top negotiator in person.
Bessent will attend the United States' "national day" event at the Osaka Expo on Saturday, in which the country's traditions and culture will be presented. The meeting with Ishiba is expected to take place in Tokyo.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump notified Japan of its plan to impose a 25% "reciprocal" tariff on all imports from the country, effective from Aug. 1. Positioning this date as the deadline for the bilateral negotiations, Ishiba has instructed the relevant Cabinet members to continue talks.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told a news conference on Tuesday, "We will vigorously explore the possibility of an agreement that will benefit both sides while protecting our national interests."
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If you want to influence the Cambodia's regime, you must pressure its criminal economy – not just its formal trade. Over the past few weeks, both Thailand and the United States have ratcheted up the pressure on Cambodia, each seeking to influence the kingdom's behavior in line with their respective domestic interests. But the contrast between their approaches – and their likely effectiveness – is striking. The U.S., true to form, opted for blunt force: a threatened 36 percent tariff on all Cambodian exports, announced last week by President Donald Trump as punishment for Phnom Penh's 'persistent' trade barriers and 'unfair' practices. Thailand, too, is taking a (less characteristically) blunt tack, imposing costs on the regime in the wake of the Thai-Cambodia border dispute and ensuing fallout. 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Putting its other predatory interests aside for a moment, CPP ruling elites own, protect, and profit from an industrial-scale cybercrime economy that generates an estimated $12-$19 billion annually – an amount that dwarfs the value of its licit industries (including its low-margin, tariff-vulnerable garment sector) and is equivalent to roughly half its formal GDP. Scam compounds dot the landscape, guarded by armed security, surrounded by barbed wire, and shielded invariably by corrupt ties to political elites. This is not crime exploiting a 'governance gap.' It is governance by criminality. Thailand has seen this reality up close, particularly in Poipet, the notorious border town where scams and casinos dominate. For years, it has more or less tolerated the status quo, benefitting from its own cross-border flows of cash, labor, and goods. 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While it would be tremendously gratifying to see the remaining 27 actors get the same treatment, it remains to be seen how far Thailand is willing to take this approach. Indeed, Thailand's own elites are enmeshed with Cambodia's so this knife of accountability will likely only cut so deep. Yet, whatever its limitations, Thailand's strategy has demonstrated something Washington seems unwilling to acknowledge: the Cambodian regime will not be moved through traditional diplomatic means or pressure on its formal economy alone. The State Department's approach to tariff negotiations, like so much U.S. diplomacy before it, fails to distinguish between the façade and the true engine of the state-party. Garment exports – the main target of U.S. trade policy – employ hundreds of thousands of workers but contribute only peripherally to the ruling elite's survival strategy. Indeed, tariffs risk collapsing the country's last licit industry and hurting ordinary Cambodians, pushing the regime deeper into its own criminal ecosystem and further into Beijing's orbit. This potential tariff-induced labor disruption certainly makes Phnom Penh nervous, but the CPP has repressed garment workers before and – with all the coercive power in the country consolidated into its hands – will do so again. The 'state-society schism' is vast in Cambodia and the voice of the people holds little sway. The scam economy is far less expendable to the CPP elites, who have also fully captured Cambodia's formal institutions. Accordingly, it is difficult to imagine senior party officials putting up much resistance in trade negotiations were their tariff-proof cash cow (defrauding Americans via slave labor) meaningfully pressured. That's why Thailand's moves strike closer to the mark, hitting the criminalized patronage networks that actually sustain the CPP. And, to be clear 'hitting' those networks doesn't mean cozying up to the regime or hoping against reason that their efforts to deny, obfuscate, or repress their way out of mounting international pressure will now somehow abate. Despite its paper-thin posturing, this is a hostile, criminal regime and we need to move past protracted suspended disbelief about its true nature. Just because Prime Minister Hun Manet is touting his latest 'high-level taskforce to combat scams' (the third such artifice enacted in the last year alone), the embassy will not somehow now manage to 'protect American citizens' or 'hold perpetrators accountable' via 'close cooperation with Cambodian law enforcement.' None of this suggests that Washington should abandon engagement altogether. But it does imply that if the U.S. wants to make progress – whether on trade, human rights, or regional security – it must start asserting its leverage through adversarial (as opposed to purely dialogical) diplomacy where the regime is most vulnerable: its vast poly-criminal enterprises. This indicates need for a strategic pivot away from status quo carrots and 'collaboration.' That means aggressively pursuing transnational accountability for its scam-linked elites and their networks – targeted asset seizures, public exposure campaigns, and transnational investigations into money laundering through casinos and real estate. It means strengthening regional cooperation with neighboring states to disrupt these networks collectively rather than piecemeal. Most critically, it means abandoning the illusion that the Cambodian regime can be swayed by treating it like a normal trading or diplomatic partner. It is not. The CPP is a sophisticated criminal enterprise wrapped in a flag. And, it has made clear that it will protect its illicit economies at all costs – because those economies are what, in turn, protect it. If you want to move such a regime – to end a border dispute, balance a trade deficit, uphold basic universal commitments to rights, or any other end – you have to hit it where it hurts.