Four bets for Glorious Goodwood

Spectator

2 days ago

Day four at Glorious Goodwood is always my favourite of the meeting but, with such competitive racing, it is hard to pick winners at the best of times. However, yesterday's downpour – which changed the ground from the fast side of good to 'heavy' in just an hour – has complicated things still further. Ed Arkell, the clerk of the course, predicted last night that the ground could be back to 'good to soft' by the start of racing today but that's by no means certain.
The Coral Goodwood Handicap (1.20 p.m.) is a real favourite race of mine and, other than looking for a well handicapped horse, I work on one key principle: few flat horses stay this extreme distance of just over two and a half miles so you either want to back a National Hunt runner or one proven over a trip of well over two miles. Add to that, any selection now needs to be able to run well on ground with some cut in it.
I was initially sweet on three horses in the race and they all fall into the latter category of proven flat performers at extreme distances: trainer Charlie Johnston's Align The Stars and the Hughie Morrison-trained pair, KYLE OF LOCHALSH and VINO VICTRIX.
If the ground was quick, Align the Stars would have been my selection but I am happy to overlook him after yesterday's deluge that saw 28.6 mm of rain fall in the afternoon. All of this horse's best form is on quicker ground.
Both Morrison's runners have been waiting for some rain and they are well weighted on their best form, while the trainer's horses are running well again: three winners from nine runners over the past fortnight for an impressive 33 per cent strike rate.
Kyle of Lochalsh was fourth in this race last year on ground much faster than ideal and he also ran well when third in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot last season, again on ground faster than he prefers. He looks a rock solid each way bet now the rain has come but the 14-1 available less than 48 hours ago has long gone. Nevertheless, back him 1 point each way at 11-2 with betMGM, paying four places and best odds guaranteed.
Vino Victrix picked up an injury last season but three years ago he was second in the Cesarewitch off an official rating of 92. Today he races off a rating of just 81 and so, if (admittedly a fairly big if) he can recapture his best form now, he is certainly on a winning mark. Back him 1 point each way at 20-1 with bet365, paying four places and best odds guaranteed.
In the Coral Golden Mile (2.30 p.m.), I have already put up one tip, Ebt's Guard, two weeks ago, each way at 25-1. I am more than happy with that bet as he is now less than half those odds and he is versatile when it comes to ground conditions.
The stand-out well-handicapped horse in this race is Skukuza for the Ed Dunlop/Ryan Moore trainer/jockey combination. Skukuza picked up at injury after running a big race to be second at Royal Ascot last season but on his return this year he has gone from strength to strength, winning two decent handicaps in Ireland.
He can race off a mark of 105 today, making him 8lb 'well in' for this early-closing handicap, compared with his new rating of 113. However, the downside is he has drawn stall 17, when low numbers are usually favoured, and he has been heavily backed into joint favourite at no bigger than 6-1. The other joint favourite, Tribal Chief, has been trained for this race and is proven on soft ground so he has a huge chance too.
On balance, however, I am going to go in double handed with DUTCH DECOY who can race off an official mark 8lb lower than when he was second in this race last year. As early as yesterday morning, he looked unlikely to get a run as second reserve but two horses then dropped out so he has scraped into the race. Back him 1 point each way at 8-1 with bet365, paying five places and best odds guaranteed.
Tomorrow's card, the last day of this superb racing festival, is generally too hard for me but I can't resist backing Owen Burrows's WAARDAH in the Group 2 Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Saturday, 2.30 p.m.). She has a bit to find on official figures and she is untried at this trip of 1 mile 6 furlongs. However, this three-year-old filly is a lightly-raced improver with winning Goodwood form and she handles cut in the ground.
Burrows is both a likeable character and an astute trainer, while his horses are running out of their skin at present: he has had five winners from just nine runners in the past fortnight for a strike rate of 56 per cent.
Connections of Waardah will be hoping the ground stays on the soft side of good for tomorrow despite a drying forecast from now on. Back her 1 point each way at 7-1 with most bookies, all paying three places.
I am pleased to say that I have only had one tip run so far at Glorious Goodwood and that horse won having been put up at 33-1 two weeks ago. My thanks to those who left kind online comments after Witness Stand – 25-1 starting price – romped home in the HKJC World PoolLennox Stakes on Tuesday. It seems a lot of readers were 'on' at tasty prices… happy days.
That's it for this week but the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot beckons next weekend and I will also be taking a look at York's famous Ebor meeting at the end of the month with a view to getting a bit of early value with some ante-post bets.
Pending:
1 point each way Kyle of Lochalsh at 11-2 for the Goodwood Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places, BOG.
1 point each way Vino Victrix at 20-1 for the Goodwood Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places BOG.
1 point each way Ebt's Guard at 25-1 for the Golden Mile, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Dutch Decoy at 8-1 for the Golden Mile, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places, BOG.
1 point each way Waardah at 7-1 for the Lillie Langtry, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
Last weekend and Tuesday: + 38.32 points.
1 point each way Fitzella at 8-1 in the Princess Margaret Stakes, paying 1/5odds, 4 places. 1st. + 6.72 points (Rule 4 deduction).
1 point each way Arctic Thunder at 12-1 in the Sky Bet Dash, paying 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Glittering Surf at 12-1 in the Longines Valiant Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Northern Express at 40-1 for the International, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Yorkshire at 14-1 for the International, paying 1/5 odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Witness Stand at 33-1 for the Lennox, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. 1st. + 39.6 points.
2025 flat season running total: + 93.18 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.