Chinese Whispers: Is Taiwan Trump's New Bargaining Chip With Beijing?
Is the United States distancing itself from Taiwan? This at a time when, in Taipei, civilians are rehearsing responses to potential attacks from China in city streets. This raises questions: will Washington step in to defend Taipei if a Chinese invasion becomes imminent? Is the US President using Taiwan as a negotiating tool with China? These are likely concerns for Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te.
Recently, Lai cancelled his trip to Paraguay, Guatemala, and Belize—Taiwan's three allies in the Americas. The reason? Donald Trump.
Why, you might ask? Lai's trip, planned for early August, included a stopover in the United States, which was blocked by Trump's administration. Trump is currently seeking a summit with China's President Xi Jinping. The Financial Times reported that China raised objections with Washington about Lai's visit, leading to the US denying him permission to stop in New York.
Interestingly, Lai's office never formally announced his trip to Latin America. On Monday, Taiwan confirmed that Lai's overseas travel was cancelled to focus on tariff negotiations with the US and to manage a cleanup operation following a typhoon in southern Taiwan.
Trump's social media rant coincides with a meeting between top US and Chinese economic officials in Stockholm, aiming to resolve longstanding economic disputes at the heart of a trade war between the world's two largest economies. The US and China are considering extending a tariff truce by three months, with China seeking reductions in US tariffs and tech export controls. Analysts believe a Trump-Xi meeting could ease trade tensions at this critical juncture.
It is important to note that the president of Taiwan cannot officially visit the US, as the United States does not recognise Taiwan's government. However, Taiwanese leaders have historically used 'transit stops" in the US to meet top US administration officials outside Washington DC. As recently as 2023, then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen visited New York and Los Angeles during a transit stop. At that time, Joe Biden was the US president, committed to defending Taiwan militarily against any attack from the People's Republic of China. Biden approved over $500 million in defence support to Taiwan before leaving office.
Donald Trump, however, prioritises America First, and Taiwan's independence is no longer a priority—a stark contrast to his previous term, when he reinstated a posture of strong deterrence in the Taiwan Strait with increased arms sales to Taiwan. During his first term, US trade policy towards China helped Taiwanese companies diversify across Asia. Diplomatically, Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act in March 2018, ending several restrictions on official exchanges since the 1979 diplomatic breakup.
But now, Trump's transactional diplomacy prioritises the sensitive US-China trade talks, raising critical questions for Taiwan's future. How much pressure will be placed on Taiwan to increase its military spending? Can Taiwan continue to benefit from the trade and technology disputes between the US and China? And what is the future of Taipei without Trump's support?
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