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Yahoo
15 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stocks Fade as Expectations are Trimmed for Fed Rate Cut in September
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed down -0.40%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.98%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.13%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.50%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) were unchanged. Stock indexes rallied early Tuesday due to a favorable core CPI print of +0.2% m/m, but then faded as T-note prices fell and as expectations for a Fed rate cut in September were trimmed to 58% from 65%. The 10-year T-note yield rose +5 bp, and the 30-year T-bond yield rose back above the 5% mark for the first time in 6 weeks. Palantir Just Launched Warp Speed for Warships. Does That Make PLTR Stock a Buy? This Analyst Just Doubled His Price Target on AMD Stock Dear Nvidia Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 16 Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was undercut by negative breadth with 26 of the 30 stocks showing declines, led by American Express (AXP), Home Depot (HD), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Merck (MRK). Tuesday's CPI report received some favorable initial media attention due to the slightly weaker-than-expected +0.2% m/m increase in the core CPI, which was partly driven by lower car prices. However, there were some scattered signs in the CPI report of upside pressure from tariffs, and that pressure is expected to increase in the coming months. Also, both the headline and core CPI reports on a year-over-year basis rose from May. Specifically, the June US CPI rose +0.3% m/m, which was in line with market expectations, while the year-over-year figure of +2.7% was slightly worse than expectations of +2.6% and was up from May's +2.4%. The June US core CPI rose +0.2% m/m, which was slightly better than expectations of +0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, the June US core CPI was in line with expectations at +2.9% y/y but rose from May's +2.8%. Expectations for a -25 bp Fed rate cut were little changed for the July FOMC meeting but were trimmed to 58% for the September meeting from 65% on Tuesday. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and at 58% at the following meeting on Sep 16-17. There was some positive trade news Tuesday after Treasury Secretary Bessent said that US-China trade talks are in a "very good place" and that the US-China deadline is flexible and told market participants "not to worry about August 12." Mr. Bessent confirmed that the Trump administration has told Nvidia that a license for the sale of its advanced H20 GPU chips to Chinese firms will be granted and is "all part of a mosaic" in the US-China negotiations. He also said he hopes to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in August. There was also some positive trade news after President Trump announced that his administration had reached a trade deal with Indonesia. However, US imports from Indonesia, totaling around $2.8 billion, will face a US tariff of 19%, which is likely to raise the price that US consumers pay for Indonesian goods. Stocks have been undercut by recent negative US trade news. Over the weekend, President Trump announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. Mr. Trump said last Thursday that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%. Last week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which will include semi-finished goods, and stated that drug companies could face tariffs as high as 200% on imports if they don't relocate production to the US within the next year. Tuesday's July Empire manufacturing index report of 5.5 was stronger than expectations of -9.2, and was up from June's level of -16.0. The price of Bitcoin (^BTSUSD) fell -3% Tuesday after the House failed to approve a procedural vote to begin consideration of three bills backed by the crypto industry. Bitcoin has rallied sharply in the past several weeks, driven by hopes for favorable crypto regulation from Washington. The US House Committee on Ways and Means plans to hold an oversight subcommittee hearing on July 16 entitled "Making America the Crypto Capital of the World," which may promote crypto-friendly regulations. The markets during the remainder of this week will focus on any fresh news on tariffs or trade deals. On Wednesday, June PPI final demand is expected to ease to +2.5% y/y from +2.6% in May, and June core PPI is expected to ease to +2.7% y/y from +3.0% y/y in May. Also, on Wednesday, June manufacturing production is expected to fall by -0.1% m/m. Finally, on Wednesday, the Fed will release its Beige Book. On Thursday, June retail sales are expected to climb by +0.1% m/m and +0.3% ex-autos, and weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +7,000 to 234,000. Also, on Thursday, the July Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to climb +3.0 points to -1.0, and the July NAHB housing market index is expected to rise +1 to 33. On Friday, June housing starts are expected to climb +3.3% m/m to 1.298 million, and June building permits are expected to slip -0.6% m/m to 1.386 million. Also, the University of Michigan's US July consumer sentiment index is expected to climb +0.8 to 61.5. Earnings season began in earnest this week with a focus on big bank earnings results. Key earnings reports on Wednesday include Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and United Airlines. Key reports on Thursday include PepsiCorp, Abbott, US Bancorp, GE Fifth Third, and GE. Key reports on Friday include Schwab and American Express. The consensus is for the S&P 500 companies to show Q2 earnings growth of +2.8% y/y, the smallest increase in two years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Also, only six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to post an increase in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, according to Yardeni Research. Overseas stock markets on Tuesday closed mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell -0.31%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.42%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.55%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) on Tuesday fell -14.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose by +5.2 bp to 4.485%. T-note prices were undercut by reduced expectations for Fed easing, as the market cut expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting to 58% from 65%. Also, the 10-year breakeven expectations rate rose to a 4.75-month high and ended the day up +1.0 bp at 2.414%. Also on the bearish side for US bond prices, the Trump administration's campaign against Fed Chair Powell continued Tuesday, fueling concern among bond vigilantes about the Fed's independence and the possibility of politically driven interest rate cuts that could be inflationary. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Fed Chair Powell should step down as a Fed Governor when his term as Fed Chairman ends in May 2026, in line with tradition. Mr. Powell's term as a Fed Governor lasts until January 2028, well beyond the expiration of his term as Chairman in mid-May 2026. Mr. Bessent also stated that he is part of a formal process that has already begun to decide who President Trump will appoint as the new Chairman when Mr. Powell's term ends in May 2026, or earlier, "for cause," based on attacks on how Mr. Powell has handled the renovation of the Fed's building in Washington. European government bond yields were mixed. The 10-year German bund yield fell -1.7 bp to 2.712%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +2.5 bp to 4.625%. Swaps are discounting the chances at 2% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the July 24 policy meeting. US Stock Movers The Magnificent Seven stocks generally closed higher on Tuesday, except for Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA), which closed more than -1% lower. Apple (AAPL) closed slightly higher after news that it reached a $500 million deal to buy rare-earth minerals from Pentagon-backed MP Materials Corp. In Tesla (TSLA) news, the company opened its first India showroom. Also, Bloomberg reported that Tesla's top sales executive in North America, Troy Jones, has left the company after a 15-year stint. Chip stocks showed some strength Tuesday, and helped keep the Nasdaq 100 index in positive territory, after the Trump administration indicated that it will loosen US restrictions on chip sales to China. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose more than +6%, and Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than +4%. Arm Holdings (ARM) rose more than +2%. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks closed lower on Tuesday as bitcoin (^BTCUSD) fell -3% on the failure of the House to approve a procedural vote to consider crypto-friendly bills. Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell more than -3%, and Mara Holdings (MARA) fell by more than -2%. MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell -1.9%, and Coinbase (COIN) fell -1.5%. BlackRock (BLK) fell by more than -5% after it reported that long-term asset inflows were less than market expectations. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell -0.7% after it raised its full-year expense guidance. Copper miners traded lower after Morgan Stanley downgraded the sector's prospects due to expectations that 50% tariffs will lead to reduced US demand for copper products. Freeport McMoRan (FCX) fell -3%, and Southern Copper (SCCO) fell -2.4%. Earnings Reports (7/16/2025) Prologis Inc (PLD), Progressive Corp/The (PGR), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), PNC Financial Services Group I (PNC), Bank of America Corp (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI). On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
18 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Up Around 40% in Just the Past Month, Could This Red-Hot Growth Stock Rally Even Higher?
Tilray's stock has been rallying since the start of July despite an absence of significant news. Investors have often bought the stock on hopes that the U.S. marijuana market will open up. However, that doesn't appear to be on the horizon, and Tilray faces many challenges ahead. 10 stocks we like better than Tilray Brands › The S&P 500 index has been hitting record highs and may be running out of room to rise a whole lot more. For investors, now may be an opportune time to pay attention to stocks which may be poised for greater gains and which haven't been doing particularly well. One notable stock of late has been Tilray Brands (NASDAQ: TLRY), which has a diverse business centering around cannabis and beverages. While it hasn't been a strong buy at all this year (it's down more than 50% year to date), it has been picking up steam of late. As of Friday, it was up around 40% in the past month. Could this struggling stock be on track for an even bigger rally ahead, or could this be just a short-lived bump-up in value? The big reason to invest into Tilray is if you're bullish on marijuana legalization in the U.S. If that happens, the Canadian-based cannabis producer would have a way to enter a huge, lucrative market, enabling it to drastically grow its sales. But with nothing seemingly happening on that front of late, growth investors have, for the most part, avoided it. As of the end of June, the stock was down a whopping 69% as it looked poised for yet another disastrous year. In 2024, the pot stock fell by more than 40% after declining by nearly 15% the year before that. But in the first few days of July, Tilray's stock started to rally. And on July 9 it hit an intra-day high of $0.70 -- levels it hadn't hit since March. The company, however, hasn't released any major news of late, and its latest quarterly report isn't coming out until later this month, on July 28. Investors buying Tilray may simply have been pivoting to cheaper stocks, especially with the markets up around record levels and many top-performing stocks looking expensive. Tilray is also a popular stock with retail investors, and when its momentum picks up, for any reason, that can lead to a snowball effect. The problem with Tilray is that it's struggling to find ways to grow its business in a sustainable way. It's leaned on acquisitions of craft brewers in the past as a way to expand its operations. But acquisitions often lead to just temporary, short-term boosts. Tilray's sales growth rate has been underwhelming of late. For the period ended Feb. 28, its net revenue totaled $186 million and was down more than 1% year over year. Without a U.S. cannabis market to tap into right now, and the company incurring a net loss of more than $913 million over the past three quarters, there isn't an overwhelming reason for investors to want to take a chance on the stock, even if it may look cheap. Tilray's stock got a boost recently despite no significant developments. That's a sign of just how dangerously speculative and unpredictable the stock can be. While it may be tempting to buy into a stock that's suddenly taking off, this type of rally usually doesn't end up being sustainable. Consider that over the past five years, shares of Tilray have fallen an incredible 93%. Although there may be brief spikes along the way, it's been an incredibly strong, downward trend for the stock. And without a reason to expect that things will get better for Tilray anytime soon, investors may still be better off steering clear of this highly risky and volatile stock. Before you buy stock in Tilray Brands, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Tilray Brands wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation,you'd have $680,559!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,005,670!* Now, it's worth notingStock Advisor's total average return is1,053% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to180%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 15, 2025 David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Tilray Brands. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Up Around 40% in Just the Past Month, Could This Red-Hot Growth Stock Rally Even Higher? was originally published by The Motley Fool
Hamilton Spectator
21 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
S&P/TSX composite down amid fresh inflation data in Canada and the U.S.
TORONTO - Canada's main stock index fell more than 140 points to finish trading Tuesday, while U.S. stock markets were mixed as investors saw fresh inflation data from both countries. The S&P/TSX composite index was down 144.71 points at 27,054.14. In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 436.36 points at 44,023.29. The S&P 500 index was down 24.80 points at 6,243.76, while the Nasdaq composite was up 37.47 points at 20,677.80. 'Generally, markets have been pretty cautious with all the trade tensions heating up again,' said Kim Inglis, a senior portfolio manager at Raymond James, in an interview. Stocks also felt pressure from a report showing inflation in the United States accelerated to 2.7 per cent last month from 2.4 per cent in May. Economists pointed to increases in prices for clothes, toys and other things that tend to get imported from other countries. The latest U.S. inflation update hurt Wall Street's hopes for lower interest rates. Inflation data from Statistics Canada released Tuesday showed Canada's annual pace of inflation accelerated to 1.9 per cent in June. 'Inflation is obviously something everybody's looking at in general, because there's a lot of concern that the ongoing trade, tariff situation will end up impacting that,' Inglis said. Trade tensions are also something impacting the performance of the TSX, she said. 'Even with regards to the tariffs, this is something that would weigh on the Canadian markets for sure. And Prime Minister Carney came out and said that it's unlikely that Canada is going to have a trade deal with the U.S. that's going to be completely tariff-free,' she said. 'There are some negative headlines there that are going to impact things overall in terms of sentiment for the day.' A trade deal with the United States will likely include some tariffs, Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated on Tuesday ahead of a meeting with his cabinet. On Wall Street, tech stocks were the outliers and rose after Nvidia said the U.S. government had assured it that licenses will be granted for its H20 chip again and that deliveries will hopefully begin soon. Nvidia's four per cent gain was by far the strongest force pushing upward on the S&P 500. 'In general, there's so much interest in AI, and AI is really showing up in all areas of our lives. It's becoming something that's being inserted into virtually every product these days,' Inglis said. 'So I don't think that there is going to be any sort of slowing with that. The demand is there for AI, investments are pouring into AI to build that out.' Stocks of big U.S. banks, meanwhile, were mixed following their latest earnings reports. JPMorgan Chase slipped 0.7 per cent despite reporting a stronger profit than analysts expected, as CEO Jamie Dimon warned of risks to the economy because of tariffs and other concerns. Citigroup rose 3.7 per cent following its better-than-expected profit report. But Wells Fargo fell 5.5 per cent following its own, as it trimmed its forecast for an important way that it makes money. The Canadian dollar traded for 72.94 cents US compared with 73.03 cents US on Monday. The September crude oil contract was down 44 cents US at US$65.37 per barrel. The August gold contract was down US$22.40 at US$3,336.70 an ounce. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 15, 2025. Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD) Note to readers:This is a corrected story. A previous version had an incorrect settle price for crude oil.
