Consumers have 'breathing room' as tariffs take time to hit
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Hey John. I you know, uh it's amazing what a difference a week makes in terms of trade talks and negotiations. It looks really constructive. But my question for you is, how do we factor in the the chance that these trade talks could fall apart just as quickly as they came together? And at what point does the consumer just get fatigued and change their behavior permanently because of that? They don't know when it's gonna happen. I mean, how do you, how do you calculate for that?
I mean, it's a great question. I think thus far, what we've seen from consumers is some reticence to dramatically change their behaviors in response to trade negotiations, tariff negotiations, right? Because announcing 145% tariff uh on Chinese-made goods is not the same as in fact, paying 145% more the next day. Companies have ways of working around things. We also know from our our small business survey that we run with the Boston Fed that small businesses were very reluctant to immediately pass on those elevated costs that were gonna do so over a period of two plus years. So I think from the perspective of consumers, they're sitting back and they're saying, well what does this mean for me and my pocketbook? Um the the expectations of tariffs, I think wrongfully were over uh, you know, I think people wrongfully thought tariff announcements and tariff expectations were immediately gonna affect consumer's pocketbooks. That didn't happen, and so we've got some breathing room right now. And I expect consumers to go back uh and spend.
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New York Post
25 minutes ago
- New York Post
Lucy Guo's advice to other billionaires: 'Act broke, stay rich'
Tech entrepreneur Lucy Guo, 30, recently dethroned Taylor Swift as the youngest self-made female billionaire on the planet. But don't expect her to be popping Champagne bottles. 'I feel like the title changes every year,' Guo told The Post about the Forbes magazine ranking. 'It means almost nothing to me personally.' Guo's billion-dollar bounty comes from Scale AI, the artificial intelligence data-labeling startup she launched in 2016 with Alexandr Wang, when she was just 21. She left two years later but held onto an estimated 5% stake — a small slice that turned into a massive windfall this April when insider shares valued Scale AI at $25 billion, making Guo's cut worth an estimated $1.2 billion. 11 Tech entrepreneur Lucy Guo, 30, recently dethroned Taylor Swift as the youngest self-made female billionaire on the planet. Margot Judge for NY Post So, yeah. She's officially a billionaire, but doesn't feel like one. Guo's motto? 'Act broke, stay rich.' The coder-turned-founder still clocks 90-hour workweeks with a schedule that starts at 5:30 a.m. and ends at midnight — including up to four Barry's Bootcamp classes a day. Guo credits her 'no sleep' DNA to her parents, Chinese immigrants who worked as engineers in the San Francisco Bay area. 11 Guo made the cover of Forbes in April. Her billion-dollar bounty comes from Scale AI, the AI data-labeling startup she launched in 2016 with Alexandr Wang, when she was just 21. guofortit/Instagram The fast-talking tech trailblazer doesn't believe in wasting time. 'I don't watch TV or scroll TikTok,' Guo admitted. 'So that gives me many extra hours in a day. I'm constantly on the go, whereas a lot of people build in relaxation time. I do fill in my schedule with fun stuff, like at 10 p.m. maybe I'll go get dinner with friends.' While she may not splurge on Bentleys or Birkins, Guo has no shortage of interests — including Barry's, EDM music festivals, skateboarding, skydiving, collecting Pokémon plushies and building startups from scratch. Her latest professional passion project is Passes, the creator-driven platform she founded in 2022 that's already generating six-figure incomes for influencers, YouTubers, podcasters, astrologers and even golfers. 11 The Post previously photographed Guo at home in 2022. Sonya Revell for The New York Po 'Passes is a full-stack business platform for creators,' Guo explained. 'They can sell merch, subscriptions, unreleased YouTube videos, live streams and group chats to their superfans all in one place.' The idea for Passes came to her during the pandemic while running a start-up incubator. Guo saw creators like Logan Paul and Kylie Jenner building nine-figure brands and realized the real power lay in ownership. 'Creators are very unique. They can sell anything, and they don't have the typical customer acquisition costs that normal people have,' she said. 'They are these small businesses that can become larger businesses, but they've been mismanaged. No one was helping them get equity or build generational wealth.' 11 Among her extracurricular passions — learning to DJ. guofortit/Instagram With Passes, Guo aims to fix that. She's introduced a suite of tools to help creators monetize their brands, from in-house design to AI. Most significantly, creators keep 90% of their profits. 'We've become 80% to 100% of the creator's income,' Guo said with obvious pride. 'Even creators who have millions of followers on other platforms tell us that we are the most consistent income they have, and the majority of their income as well.' Unlike Instagram or TikTok, Passes is focused on the relationship between creators and their superfans, with monetization baked in. 'Instagram builds for breadth,' Guo said. 'Passes builds for depth. We're more like Patreon.' Still, comparisons to another platform, OnlyFans, persist. She insist's that not accurate. 11 Guo posted a photo with Bill Gates on her Instagram, joking, 'One of my guilty pleasures is being the dumbest person in the room.' guofortit/Instagram 'Our feature set is vastly different from OF. And even if you're not doing nudes on OF, the type of creator we attract would never go on OF because they don't want that as part of their brand.' The digital disruptor also points out that Passes has a no-nudity policy and stricter guidelines than OF. Nevertheless, there's been some controversy at Passes. A class-action lawsuit this year alleged underage content slipped through the cracks — claims Guo calls 'a shakedown.' 'We filed a motion to dismiss,' she said, denying the allegations. 'Their claims don't match the investigation that we found. Bad actors are always going to be bad actors, and we just do our best to try to prevent this.' 11 Guo is also an avid skateboarder. Sonya Revell for The New York Po Passes currently has around 50 employees, thousands of creators and millions of subscribers. The biggest moneymakers include golfer Charley Hull, YouTuber Sssniper Wolf and a surprising niche: astrologers who sell daily horoscopes. 'Our creators are doing amazing things,' Guo said. 'And we're just getting started.' Her career has always been ahead of the curve. She began coding in second grade, studied computer science and HCI at Carnegie Mellon — and then dropped out after earning a $100,000 Thiel Fellowship. The California native interned at Facebook, became the first female designer at Snapchat and met her Scale AI cofounder, Wang, at Quora. The rest is billion-dollar history. But despite her self-made status, Guo is still sometimes underestimated. 11 She founded the platform Passes — which occupies a 25,000-square-foot office in Los Angeles. Margot Judge for NY Post 'People don't understand how much work it takes to get here,' she said. 'They see the headlines, but they don't see the 18-hour days.' And the billionaire has had her fair share of headlines, including the time she hosted a wild rager at her $6.1 million luxury apartment in Miami, replete with a lemur and snake. The party did not win over her neighbors like David Beckham, and she was reprimanded by the building's HOA. Soon after, Guo moved back to the West Coast, and bought a $4.2 million, five-bedroom mansion in Los Angeles that boasts a dipping pool and screening room. Being in LA also allows her to personally interact with creators in Passes' 25,000-square-foot state-of-the-art office. 'They come to our office to shoot content and record podcasts,' she said. 'It's a relationship-driven business. We're even building a music studio.' Guo's love of music, especially EDM, runs deep. Her obsession began at age 20, when she saw Major Lazer at Outside Lands Music & Arts Festival at Golden Gate Park in San Francisco. 'When I was living in San Francisco, I was not as happy as a person,' she admitted. 'But I was blown away by my first EDM experience. I think it's been proven that EDM makes you happier based off the BPM. It's all very positive, happy energy.' 11 The billionaire has had her fair share of headlines, including the time she hosted a wild rager at her then-home in Miami, replete with a lemur (pictured) and a snake. Guo's now learning to DJ and often hops behind the decks when friends perform: 'I played for 30 minutes at a club in LA recently and people were like, 'That set was so good!'' She always keeps a music-filled USB in her bag, and will fly to a music festival on a minute's notice, especially for her favorite DJs like Layton Giordani, Kygo, Gryffin, Mau P. and Zedd. Already this summer, she hit Europe for a month of VIP access at various music festivals. Guo also attended the A-list launch of the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection in Barcelona, alongside Tom Brady, Sofía Vergara and Naomi Campbell. She's next planning to visit Kenya and witness firsthand the great migration of wildlife across the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem. 11 Guo collects Pokémon plushies. guofortit/Instagram 'I pick destinations based on views or mountains,' she said. 'If it has a Barry's Bootcamp, even better.' Guo is also a low-key Swiftie — though she jokes that beating Taylor Swift on the billionaire list hasn't changed things much for her. 'The only difference is my DMs are popping,' she said. 'Lots of celebrities trying to hang out. But now I'm more cautious. Do they think I'm hot? Do they want advice? Or are they just hoping for a PJ ride? It's made me put up my guard more.' 11 'I've been on all sides — engineer, VC, founder — but what excites me the most is product,' Guo said. Margot Judge for NY Post Guo was even mistakenly linked to Orlando Bloom in a tabloid because they were spotted next to each other at a party. 'I turned around and glanced at a wall, and the paparazzi snapped a photo,' she said, laughing. 'I'm definitely not dating Orlando Bloom.' The 30-year-old insists she doesn't have time to date, in fact. 'I've been on all sides — engineer, VC, founder — but what excites me the most is product,' she said. 'Figuring out the next feature, building tools people actually use, helping creators go big. That's what I love.' Just don't expect Guo to slow down anytime soon. 'I have too much energy to burn.'
CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
If Apple makes a foldable phone, analysts say this stock will benefit
Even if Apple's long-awaited foldable may still be months or years away, buyers are lining up for a potential major supplier: Chinese glass maker Lens Technology . It's "one of the key beneficiaries of [the] foldable iOS smartphone supply chain," Citi analysts led by Kyna Wong said in a July 14 report about Lens Tech. They estimate the device could contribute to 5% of the Chinese company's revenue next year, and 12% in 2027. In a report last week, reputable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo kept up expectations that the iPhone maker will begin making a foldable next year. Apple has not made any announcements, and did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether Lens Tech would provide the "ultra thin glass" that covers the phone display panel. The Citi report initiated coverage of Lens Tech after its stand out Hong Kong public offering on July 9 — raising 4.77 billion HKD ($610 million) on the exchange's busiest day ever for listings — five IPOs at once. Bank of America Securities was one of the underwriters. The Citi analysts rate Lens Tech a buy, with a price target of 26 HKD ($3.13), or nearly 25% upside from Friday's close. "We believe the H-share listing is positive for the company," the analysts said, "as it should provide more cash for potential R & D initiatives and overseas capacity expansion, and expand the overseas institutional investor base." U.S. hedge fund magnate Steve Cohen has jumped in, with multiple purchases over three days that brought his stake in Lens Tech to 8.41% of issued voting shares, according to filings with the Hong Kong stock exchange. About 30% of proceeds raised from the Hong Kong offering will go towards developing foldable screens, Lens Tech said in its prospectus. "By increasing our production capacity in China, we aim to ensure robust support for the mass production of middle and high-end foldable smartphones for our customers and improve our market share in foldable screens," the company said. Lens Tech did not name Apple, but disclosed that its largest customer has been a Nasdaq-listed U.S. multinational founded in 1976 — and said the business relationship started "almost two decades ago when Customer/Supplier A was developing the industry's first touch-enabled smartphone with full-sized screen." Lens Tech's latest listing follows a trend this year of more mainland Chinese companies going public in Hong Kong, which is easier for international investors to access. The company already trades on the Shenzhen Exchange. "We expect Lens to benefit from the foldable iPhone launch [and] AI glasses & robotics" that drive earnings growth of at least 20% a year in 2026 and 2027, UBS analyst Zoe Xu and a team said in a separate July 14 report. They resumed coverage of the mainland China-traded shares with a buy rating and a new price target of 26.20 yuan, up from 16 yuan previously. The Citi analysts also raised their price target on Lens Tech's mainland-traded shares to 32 yuan ($4.45) from 25 yuan. Lens Tech has been reducing its reliance on Apple revenue, and states in its prospectus that "Customer B" is a "Nasdaq-listed American company founded in 2003 that designs and sells smart vehicles." Other listed customers include South Korean, French and Chinese companies. The UBS analysts pointed out that Lens Tech shares remain depressed after a 30% tumble in the week following U.S. "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April. But they expect the company can benefit from selling to Chinese startups such as smart glasses company Rokid and Zhiyuan Robotics. And even without a potential foldable iPhone, Lens Tech can likely benefit from selling cover glass for this year's iPhone 17 which is expected to offer a slimmer design. Lens Tech noted in its prospectus that its direct exports to the U.S. are limited and that it plans to use Hong Kong listing proceeds to expand production overseas in Vietnam and Thailand. In addition to China, the company said it already has factories in Vietnam and Mexico. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
San Francisco Chronicle
an hour ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
The U.S. is losing its biotech edge over China — and that's bad news for the Bay Area
From gene therapies to cancer breakthroughs, California has been the driving force behind America's biotechnology industry. But today, that edge is slipping. A National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology report to Congress in April stated that the U.S. is dangerously close to falling behind China in biotechnology innovation, and called for urgent investment and strategic coordination to maintain global leadership. Genentech's founding in 1976 in South San Francisco marked the start of the modern biotech era, and, ever since, California has been at the forefront of countless scientific discoveries and medical innovations. However, recent funding cuts and an overreliance on China for manufacturing pipelines leave our nation vulnerable. As the report urges, the U.S. must prioritize biotechnology at the national level or risk relying on China to use this strategic power for good. In 2011, the Chinese government declared biotechnology a ' strategic emerging industry ' and has since committed billions to secure dominance in areas like synthetic biology, gene editing and biomanufacturing. In 2024 alone, China conducted over 7,100 clinical drug trials, surpassing the United States and accounting for nearly 40% of global trial activity. Despite U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration designed to counter China's economic influence, China's gross domestic product has remained strong, fueling even greater investment in strategic sectors like biotechnology. By contrast, the U.S. continues to lose ground, constrained by outdated regulatory frameworks and a lack of coordinated federal strategy. While China is building a biotech empire with deliberate, state-backed coordination, the U.S. is stuck playing defense with shrinking budgets. U.S. federal support for biomedical research is slipping, with the budget for the National Institutes of Health facing a 40% cut in the coming year. For a region like the Bay Area, home to some of the world's most promising biotech startups and research institutions, these cuts have a direct toll, including the termination of $314 million in funding that was to be used to train the next generation of biomedical and health researchers. Major institutions like UCSF, Stanford and UC Berkeley are now bracing for delayed projects, staffing freezes and reductions in early-career fellowships that are vital to sustaining long-term innovation. On a national level, promising studies have been halted midstream, leaving research gaps in breakthrough treatments for cancer, Alzheimer's disease and other major infectious diseases that impact millions of Americans. When U.S. investment in domestic biotech falters, it slows innovation at home and creates an opening for global competitors to step in. China's government is strategically positioning its biotech sector to fill the gap left by stalled American research. Just last month, U.S. pharmaceutical firms signed 14 licensing deals with Chinese biotech companies worth up to $18.3 billion, underscoring our growing dependence on China's rapidly maturing R&D capabilities. This shift carries significant implications for California. It is home to over 16,500 life sciences companies and establishments, more than any other state, according to the California Biotechnology Foundation. The state directly employs more than 466,000 workers and generates more than $414 billion in annual economic output. In 2023, California led the nation in venture capital investment, raising over $34 billion for life science companies. Further, California accounted for 40% of all U.S. life sciences patents filed in 2023, and more bioscience patents are issued to California researchers than to those in any other state. Losing ground to China isn't just an economic risk; it's also a national security threat that could reshape who controls the future of health care. While the U.S. system is built on competition and patient outcomes, China's state-controlled model prioritizes strategic control and global influence. In America, ethical safeguards, transparency and regulatory review shape medical progress. In China, the government's control allows for faster approvals but also looser oversight, creating the risk of untested or misused science. The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology warned that China's biotech advances could be weaponized — from battlefield-ready biologics to more nefarious applications. As a scientist working in biotechnology in the Bay Area, I understand that California plays a central role in this global race. From early-stage research in university labs to large-scale manufacturing by leading biotech firms, the state's infrastructure, talent and capital drive America's competitiveness. The Bay Area remains one of the most dense and productive biotech ecosystems in the world, thanks to its concentration of top-tier research institutions, world-class hospitals, a culture of entrepreneurship and the ability to attract the world's best and brightest to its academic and industrial ecosystem. But even here, the warning signs are hard to ignore. Federal NIH cuts have already disrupted major research projects at UC campuses, impacting our ability to attract talented students to our graduate and postdoctoral research programs, while venture capital is increasingly eyeing faster-moving regulatory environments abroad, preferring to license in late-stage assets from China instead of funding early-stage research at home. If Washington fails to prioritize a national biotech strategy, California's innovation engine could slow just as competitors abroad gain momentum. The state's economic future, public health leadership and ability to attract global talent are all at stake. China is no longer a distant biotech challenger and is actively reshaping the industry with its speed, regulatory agility and cost-efficiency, shifting the innovation center of gravity away from the U.S. The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology has made clear that this is not just a matter of competition, but a strategic threat with long-term consequences for public health and national security. If America is to remain a global leader in biotechnology, we must urgently invest in our domestic research ecosystem and rebuild the infrastructure that has powered decades of discovery or be forced to surrender it to a rival that plays by different rules. Ash Jogalekar is a scientist and science writer based in the Bay Area. He is a scientist in residence at the Oppenheimer Project and works on emerging threats and technology risks in areas like biotechnology and AI.
