UK heat wave could claim nearly 600 lives this week, experts warn
SCIENTISTS have warned the elderly and other vulnerable groups in the UK are at risk of heat-related deaths this weekend, as a new study shows recent high temperatures could claim 570 lives in just over four days.
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London published on Saturday a real-time analysis calculating the number of heat-related deaths expected from Thursday to Sunday.
Their study, which combined mortality risk with weather forecasts, estimated this week's high and sustained temperatures could have caused 114 fatalities Thursday, 152 Friday, with 303 more potential fatalities over the weekend.
Saturday is expected to be the deadliest day, with an estimate of 266 heat-related deaths, nearly half of which could be recorded in London, according to the researchers.
'Our study should be taken as a warning,' said Malcolm Mistry, who participated in the study and teaches at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. 'Exposure to temperatures in the high-20s or low-30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions.'
Other European countries are also expected to suffer this weekend. The German weather service issued heat warnings for Sunday across much of western and northern parts of the country, including cities Frankfurt, Cologne, Hamburg and Berlin. The notifications are issued when temperatures are forecast to rise to levels that could endanger human health.
French weather service Meteo France warned of an early heatwave in parts of western France on Saturday, with temperatures expected to reach as high as around 39C. The departments of Rhone and Isere, in the east, are also affected. The orange level alarm means people should be 'very vigilant' as 'dangerous phenomena' are expected.
Heat deaths are notoriously difficult to track. While a number of illnesses are exacerbated by rising temperatures, many people who lose their lives in heat waves 'rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death,' said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, lecturer at Imperial College London.
This week the UK has been experiencing unusually intense and sustained heat for the time of year, spurring warnings from health authorities. Global warming has increased the chances of an early heat wave from once every 50 years in a pre-industrial climate to every five years, a team of researchers at Imperial College and the World Weather Attribution group said in a separate study published Friday. –BLOOMBERG
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