New offshore oil and gas projects in direct conflict with SA's climate commitments

Daily Maverick

17 hours ago

Virtually the entire coastal zone of South Africa (95%) has been leased out by the state for oil and gas exploration. How can a goal of 30% Marine Protected Areas align with 95% of the ocean under exploration leases?
The ocean-loving public has justifiable concerns about plastic pollution, because it is horribly visible. Much less visible, but hugely important, is the relationship between climate change and the ocean.
It's a multi-directional relationship, the ocean and us. A healthy ocean is our life support system. Half of global oxygen comes from phytoplankton growing in the ocean. The ocean removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which means it is working against climate change.
But the more the ocean is damaged through warming and acidification (caused by warming), the less able it is to produce oxygen and absorb our carbon emissions.
And then there is another threat: the ocean is a new frontier for fossil fuel mining.
Virtually the entire coastal zone of South Africa (95%) has been leased out by the state for oil and gas exploration. Environmental organisations have been fighting for our lives in court. The high profile Shell-Wild Coast case opposing seismic testing led to victories for the environment in 2022 and 2024.
However, perceptions that the battle against offshore oil and gas is over are misguided. In spite of wins in the high court and the Supreme Court of Appeal, Shell is still planning to go to the Constitutional Court.
Similarly, the Searcher seismic case off the West Coast, from St Helena to Hondeklipbaai, was interdicted in 2022, but the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy subsequently granted new exploration permits in 2024 and 2025.
Exploration by TotalEnergies EP South Africa is currently being legally contested by Green Connection and Natural Justice. These include a block between Cape Town and Cape Agulhas (see map: Blocks 5,6,7) and between Mossel Bay and Cape St Francis (see map: Blocks 11/12B).
The scene is set for a battle between life and death, with environmental organisations challenging fossil fuel development in the ocean. Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe has loudly proclaimed that natural gas is a transition fuel that will take us into a sustainable (environmentally friendly) energy future.
He claims it will provide an alternative to coal-based energy, and is in line with South Africa's Just Energy Transition. He hopes to set up a centralised 'war room' and dedicated courts to bypass environmentalists.
Mantashe's campaign is a great gas greenwash and needs to be exposed.
New oil and gas projects are in direct conflict with South Africa's climate commitments. We have agreed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. That's not so far off. Your new baby will be 25 years old, and your granny may still be alive. And South African emissions are meant to peak in 2025 (that's now) and decline thereafter. How is that possible with new oil and gas projects coming online in the next 10 to 30 years?
Our emissions are already too high. The International Energy Association and University College London have stated that we cannot meet international climate goals if new oil and gas projects are opened up.
Risk of oil spills
The offshore oil and gas industry also brings the risk of oil spills, which to date have not been adequately factored into mining permits. Although infrequent, they have devastating consequences. The rapid Agulhas Current along the East Coast could disperse oil as far as the West Coast.
An oil spill affects the water column, the water surface, the shorelines and the seabed. It kills thousands of marine animals and destroys coastal livelihoods.
A new scientific oil spill model in South Africa can predict the impacts of an oil blowout. It provides an objective, scientific tool for assessing the risks of ocean mining. Environmental organisations can now use this model to oppose offshore drilling.
Even without an oil spill, offshore mining damages the ocean ecosystem. It physically damages the ocean floor and releases polluting sediments and toxic metals into the water. These activities destroy habitats, and biodiversity.
Additionally, offshore oil and gas is economically risky.
New markets would have to be developed in South Africa in tandem with massive infrastructure investment. This would lock South Africans into expensive dirty energy or could lead to stranded assets as the world turns away from fossil fuels. South African consumers and taxpayers would bear the brunt of this choice.
At the same time, there is increasing evidence, including from the government's own models, that show that renewable energy is a cheaper, safer and faster source of energy for South Africa.
Some consolation may be found in financial institutions around the world shifting away from investment in fossil fuel projects.
In light of the above, why is the South African government supporting offshore mining?
There is a lot of oil and gas out there — possibly 27 billion barrels of oil and 60 trillion cubic feet of gas. This may be profitable for the oil and gas industry in the short term, depending on how long it takes for global prices to decline.
Cosy relationship with the gas industry
And the government has a close and cosy relationship with the gas industry. The 2022 Gas Masterplan Basecase Report released by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy promotes a gas pathway for South Africa. It has been criticised for relying solely on input from the gas industry and for its lack of credible independent research.
The relationship between the department and the gas industry is illustrated by the Mantashe-Ayuk bromance. NJ Ayuk is the chairperson of the non-profit Africa Energy Chamber, a trade group connecting oil and gas executives with government officials. Ayuk's Africa Energy Week is sponsored by a number of state-owned entities. Unsurprisingly, Ayuk has nothing but praise for Mantashe, describing him as a voice of reason regarding climate concerns.
Mantashe, who is once again a target for investigation into criminal corruption, is on the same wavelength as Ayuk. The latter has criminal records for fraud, money laundering and maliciously targeting a journalist. Could the Mantashe-Ayuk bromance be contributing to this plan for ocean plunder?
The figures don't add up. The government is deceiving us. How can a goal of 30% Marine Protected Areas align with 95% of the ocean under exploration leases? How can carbon emissions decline from 2025 if offshore oil and gas projects come online in the next 10 to 30 years?
The next few years will be crucial in deciding the health of our oceans. Without this we face exponential global heating and the destruction of the ocean life support system.
And yes, there are things that the ordinary person can do.
The oil and gas industry knows that they face environmental and governance challenges, both globally and in South Africa. We can stop their ambitions from becoming reality, by supporting environmental organisations that are taking the legal route. These include organisations such as All Rise Attorneys, Natural Justice, Greenpeace Africa, The Green Connection, the Legal Resources Centre and 350Africa, as well as local coastal communities and organisations.
Fighting for small-scale fishers
A number of these organisations are also fighting for the customary rights of small-scale fishers who have been increasingly excluded from the ocean economy. This includes participation in the governance of marine resources.
These organisations have already shown that, like David, they can tackle the giant. We need to inform ourselves and others about what they are doing. Everyone has a stake in this invisible threat of ocean destruction.
In addition to legal challenges to offshore mining, the oceans need long-term protection. Marine Protected Area (MPAs) allow marine life to recover, climate resilience to improve and prevent mining.
The government has committed to protecting 30% of South African oceans by 2030. At the moment only 5% is protected. That means that in the next five years, an additional 25% of South Africa's oceans must be declared protected areas. It sounds impossible but it's a goal worth fighting for.
David Attenborough's words can inspire us to action: 'The ocean can bounce back to life. If left alone it may not just recover, but thrive beyond anything anyone alive has ever seen.' DM
Dr Moraig Peden is a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion, Cape Town. She is a retired academic with a background in environmental education.