Goldman, Investec see room for three more SA rate cuts in 2025
Annual inflation inched up to 3% in June from 2.8% in May, data on Wednesday showed. That was less than the 3.1% median estimate of 12 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Inflation has now been below the 4.5% midpoint of the South African Reserve Bank's target range, where it prefers to anchor expectations, since August. The central bank's benchmark rate is currently 7.25% and the monetary policy committee will announce its next rate decision on July 31.
Goldman Sachs sees the MPC lowering its policy benchmark rate by a cumulative 75-basis point to 6.5% by year-end if the central bank's inflation target is kept unchanged. It is in talks with National Treasury to have it adjusted lower.
'We've pencilled in back-to-back cuts,' Andrew Matheny, senior economist at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg. Policymakers are likely to consider low price growth, declining inflation expectations and the need to support the economy, he said.
Growth has averaged less than 1% a year for more than a decade.
Investec's Chief Economist Annabel Bishop also believes there is scope for the MPC to reduce interest rates.
Additional cuts of at least 1% are warranted, given the neutral interest rate — where borrowing costs are neither stimulating nor weighing on the economy — is about 2% above inflation, and demand is weak, she said. 'The SARB has room to cut at each remaining meeting this year and should do so.'
Still, Bishop warns that the MPC's caution may only yield one more cut this year. Either at the July MPC meeting, or later in the year and a further 25 basis point reduction next year, she said.
Capital Economics' David Omojomolo is bolder than Matheny and Bishop. He expects a 25 basis point cut to 7% at the MPC meeting next week and another 125 basis point reduction to 5.75% by end 2026, even if the inflation target is lowered.
The central bank has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points at four of the last five meetings, pausing only in March when it cited uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump's trade war.
Forecasting has become 'a nightmare', Governor Lesetja Kganyago said last week. 'There are things that we are not sure about. We do not know in which direction they would go.'
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