Nvidia share price inches close to record high. Will the stock rally continue?
This sharp rally has pushed Nvidia to reclaim the title of the world's most valuable stock, with a market capitalisation of $327 trillion, beating Microsoft's $311 trillion. Apple remains at a distant third with $270 trillion in m-cap.
After some turbulence in the first half of the year amid fears of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company DeepSeek and Donald Trump's tariff announcements, Nvidia shares have come unscathed, led by strong demand for its AI chips.
Big tech companies are buying extra capacity early to handle AI tasks, which is increasing Nvidia's GPU sales and service income, according to analysts.
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. are projected to put about $350 billion into capital expenditures in their upcoming fiscal years, up from $310 billion in the current year, according to the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Those companies account for more than 40% of Nvidia's revenue.
Moreover, the launch of the Blackwell GPU line and preview of the next-gen Rubin architecture have fueled investor excitement for continued product leadership, said Dharan Shah, Founder, Tradonomy.AI.
The company's latest earnings, announced at the end of March, also reinforce the interest in Nvidia's stock. The company reported revenue for the first quarter ended April 2025 of $44.1 billion, up 12% from the previous quarter and up 69% from the year-ago period.
Despite the China export curbs, Nvidia forecasted sales of $45 billion, plus or minus 2%, in the second quarter, only slightly below analysts' average estimate of $45.90 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG, said a Reuters report. That would imply growth of about 50% from a year earlier.
Nvidia's latest AI accelerators, growing customer base and strong financials, make investors bullish on the stock. "Strong revenue forecasts and management indication that China export curbs would have a smaller impact than feared, thanks to customer pre-buying of AI chips ahead of restrictions, drove Nvidia to an all-time high $3.77 trillion market cap on June 26," said Shah.
Trading at about 36× forward earnings—above peers like AMD at 22× but well below its own 80× peak—Nvidia commands a premium multiple justified by rapid growth, believes Tradonomy.AI's founder.
He added that next-gen Rubin chips, an expanding software ecosystem, and continued margin resilience should sustain growth, although geopolitical export controls and macroeconomic headwinds remain key risks.
However, some analysts see increased competition and its lofty valuations as key risks going ahead, which they believe could impact its upside in the medium term.
Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment, said that Nvidia has broken out of a bullish 153-day cup and handle pattern at 149, signalling a strong continuation trend on the tech charts.
"The recent two-day decline is just a healthy pullback, likely retesting the breakout zone before its next leg up. A fresh breakout above 158.85 will be crucial, as it could trigger strong buying momentum and propel the stock towards the 175 level in the short term. Traders should watch for volume confirmation to ride this trend confidently and manage risk wisely," Jain added.
As of Thursday, July 3, Nvidia stock was trading around $157.34 apiece in the pre-market trade.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Mint
22 minutes ago
- Mint
Elon Musk is running out of road in China
As Elon Musk confronts deepening business and political challenges in the U.S., he's also facing trouble in his other most important market: China. For a while, Tesla was the hottest car on Chinese roads, and Musk was the toast of Beijing. Government officials showered the company with incentives, part of a concerted strategy to turbocharge the Chinese EV industry by injecting Tesla know-how into the country and spurring competition. Tesla's sales took off. But the risk was always that Tesla would start falling behind the rivals it helped create. Now, that is exactly what's happening. Tesla's market share has shriveled as other Chinese automakers become more popular. Meanwhile, Musk's reputation as a partner for Beijing in Washington took a beating as his relationship with Donald Trump soured. Chinese consumers say Teslas increasingly feel tired and out of touch with local tastes. Top China-designed EVs nowadays come with features that aren't normally found in Teslas, such as multiple big screens to watch films and play games, refrigerators to keep drinks cold and in-car cameras for selfies. BYD, which makes both EVs and batteries; and battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, recently said they each had developed new technologies that allow users to charge cars in just five minutes. Consumers walk by Tesla cars in a showroom at a Beijing shopping mall. Tesla's China staff have voiced concerns to headquarters about the company's aging products, but their warnings often drew sluggish responses, China-based employees said. The frustrations have built as Chinese salespeople feel more pressure to hit targets, without the sexiest cars to sell. Many Chinese consumers still appreciate Tesla's brand image as an EV pioneer. And the company retains support in Beijing. Chinese leaders see Tesla as a poster child of successful foreign investment and a useful ally in helping China build a green economy, centered on industries such as renewable energy, EVs and batteries. As trade tensions with the U.S. heated up this year, Chinese Premier Li Qiang made clear that Tesla's local operation wasn't to be targeted by any retaliatory measures, people familiar with the matter said. But Beijing hasn't given Tesla full regulatory approval for its so-called Full Self-Driving (Supervised) assisted-driving software, a technology central to Tesla's ambitions to dominate transportation in the future—and which Chinese companies are also racing to master. At the same time, the public breakup between Musk and Trump is limiting Musk's value to Beijing. In January, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng met Musk in Washington and told Musk that Beijing hoped he could play a 'constructive role" in U.S.-China relations, a person familiar with the exchange said. Musk wasn't receptive to China's overtures, however, people who consult with Chinese officials said. And because of the Musk-Trump feud, Beijing no longer views the Tesla chief executive as a geopolitical asset and will shy away from publicly courting him, the people said. 'Tesla remains important for China," said one of the people who consults with Chinese officials. 'But for authorities, helping domestic companies still matters more." For Musk, who has pledged to refocus on Tesla now that he is distancing himself from Washington, success in China is vital. It is Tesla's second-largest market by revenue after the U.S. and the carmaker's biggest production and export hub, making up around half of its global vehicle shipments and supplying components for its worldwide manufacturing. If anything, China's importance to Tesla is growing after its sales declined in the U.S. and Europe due to his earlier association with Trump. China is also a testing ground for technologies that Musk prioritizes, such as FSD and driverless taxis. Tesla has cut prices in China, along with other Chinese EV makers, and aims to launch a new Model Y SUV variant in 2026, which it hopes could help boost sales there. Yet Musk has appeared uninterested in making too many concessions to the market, instead relying on Tesla's reputation for quality and technology to remain a leading player in China. Tesla didn't respond to requests for comment. The company said in April in its earnings presentation about China that while conventional wisdom is that competition will be bad for Tesla, the company believes it would accelerate EV adoption and help Tesla's sales in the long-term. Many experts believe the road ahead for Tesla in China will remain bumpy. American companies have a long history of thriving temporarily in China before falling behind, once local competitors scale up and government officials tilt the playing field in favor of domestic champions. In the early 2000s, Motorola was turfed out by Chinese companies supported by government policies that pressured the American company to share technology and adopt battery standards developed by Huawei Technologies. Apple was China's No. 1 smartphone maker in 2023, but now ranks third behind Huawei and another Chinese brand, which have popular features at lower prices. Apple's slide has been compounded by Chinese restrictions on the use of its devices by government officials and stimulus policies that favor Chinese domestic manufacturers. 'You never want to bet against Elon Musk and the resilience of Tesla," said Michael Dunne, a former General Motors executive who now runs an automotive consulting firm. Still, he says Musk likely knows there is a shelf life to many global companies operating in China, and is looking at investments in places such as India in case China becomes more difficult. Musk 'is probably closer to sunset than sun up in his business in China," Dunne said. Tesla's most immediate challenge in China is its shrinking market share, even as the country's EV market has mushroomed. In May, Tesla sold slightly fewer than 40,000 cars in China, down 30% from the same month a year earlier, while the overall market for new-energy vehicles—a category that includes full EVs and plug-in hybrids—rose 28%. Tesla's market share in the category was down to 4% in May from 11% in early 2021, according to China Passenger Car Association data. BYD, a key competitor, holds around 29% of the EV and plug-in market. Smartphone maker Xiaomi, which only started selling EVs a year ago, has about 3%. Car buyers interviewed by the Journal said Teslas don't seem as leading-edge as before, while government restrictions on Tesla further curbed their popularity. Qian Yang, 34, says he used to have a Tesla Model 3 which he enjoyed driving on weekends until his employer, a state-owned company, last year told him not to park the car in the company compound due to security concerns. China started limiting use of Tesla cars by government and military staff in 2021, citing concerns that data the cars gather could lead to national-security leaks, though some areas have eased the restrictions after Tesla built a local data center to address the concerns. Qian sold his Tesla and paid $34,000 for an SU7 electric sedan from Xiaomi. Now he's a fan of his Xiaomi car, which includes Xiao Ai, a voice assistant that can perform tasks such as opening vehicle doors and connect with other Xiaomi devices. 'You know that feeling when you're leaving work, and you can just tell Xiao Ai in the car to remotely turn on the air conditioning in your room? That's pure bliss," said Qian. 'Teslas are almost like iPhones now. They're getting uninspired and stale, and don't have revolutionary features anymore." Tesla salespeople in China say extra features diminish battery range and impede acceleration, and are encouraging buyers to focus on Tesla's safety record. But they also complain privately about the difficulty of meeting rising internal pressure to hit sales targets. One Beijing salesman said his sales target has recently been raised to selling at least one car a day from typically four cars a week. Many colleagues have been working 12 hours daily in recent months, compared with 10 hours previously, the person said. In a report submitted to headquarters in early 2021, Tesla's China team noted that local consumers were keen to have their cars connect seamlessly with their smartphones and include more entertainment applications. U.S.-based Tesla officials replied that such features weren't a priority, people familiar with the matter said. Tesla's China strategy team raised the issue again in 2023 and 2024, and again felt brushed off, one of the people said. Tesla did start providing some popular Chinese apps to local drivers starting in 2023, such as the streaming service Mango TV. Still, Tesla drivers can access fewer apps than users of Chinese cars. After initially pledging to design a new car a few years ago that local consumers would recognize as more distinctly Chinese, Tesla shelved that plan, people familiar with the matter said, as other priorities took precedence. Instead, Musk pivoted to a strategy of designing a more affordable model which would remove or downgrade features from existing models to save costs and make these cars easier to mass-produce on existing manufacturing lines. Some employees and analysts are skeptical about this strategy, which includes the new Model Y variant Tesla plans. They fear that stripped-down models will easily be outmatched by local rivals if they aren't priced significantly lower. Tesla's Model Y SUV, its bestselling model in China, starts at about $36,700. Meanwhile, the Sealion 07, a rival BYD electric SUV, starts at around $26,400. Tesla's inability to fully roll out its FSD driver-assistance service is adding to its problems. Unlike older software that preprograms rules about most situations a car might encounter, Tesla's current FSD is built on an AI-driven system that learns how to drive from millions of video clips taken from actual road experience. The system, mainly trained with U.S. data, is considered a technology leader, and has been widely available in the U.S. since early 2024. FSD can help drivers park the car and navigate urban streets as well as highways. Currently, drivers must still pay attention while sitting behind the wheel and be prepared to take over at any time. Musk has wanted to launch FSD in China not just to lift sales there, but also because China's EV market generates copious data that can improve FSD's capabilities, thereby cementing Tesla's global leadership. A Tesla Model 3 travels the streets of Shanghai earlier this year. In April of 2024, Musk flew to Beijing and met personally with Premier Li, winning a tentative nod to move ahead with FSD in China. But he underestimated the roadblocks posed by Chinese regulations, which require car companies to train their systems with local driving data to prove their vehicles can safely handle domestic traffic conditions. Under Chinese law, companies are restricted from sending such data overseas for security reasons—a problem for Tesla, since its FSD training has been in the U.S. Tesla initially offered to redact video from Chinese roads to hide sensitive information. But the sheer volume of data Tesla sought to transfer far surpassed officials' comfort levels, people familiar with the matter said. As a Plan B, Tesla considered expanding its FSD training inside China. To do so, however, its China operations need access to the most advanced semiconductors, which have been blocked by U.S. export controls. After nearly nine months of back-and-forth, talks hit a dead end. While Tesla spins its wheels, local competitors have introduced sophisticated driving-assistance technology, often at lower prices. Users report that XPeng's flagship package, XNGP, has similar functionality to Tesla's. BYD has a system named 'Eyes of God," after a deity in Chinese mythology with three eyes, which the company says can cruise on city roads with minimal human intervention. Chinese companies are also moving ahead with robotaxi services that use self-driving technologies, including thousands of robotaxis operated by Baidu and Pony AI. Tesla, which launched its robotaxi in Austin in June, has no robotaxis on Chinese roads. Frustrated by the delays, Tesla in February started releasing some features—such as city navigation—that are part of its U.S. FSD package through over-the-air updates, making use of an ambiguity in China's rules, people familiar with the matter said. At the time, carmakers in China needed to seek official approval before releasing major updates to drivers; for smaller updates, they typically only had to notify authorities. Tesla's move upset some officials, the people said, prompting regulators to clarify that carmakers must secure approval before issuing any driver-assistance updates. Tesla halted the updates. But later in March, to help maintain customer interest and collect feedback, it said it would offer a one-month program for drivers to try some FSD features free. Regulators again told Tesla to stop, saying it shouldn't use drivers as guinea pigs. Chinese authorities further tightened oversight across the entire sector, after a crash involving Xiaomi's driver-assistance technology in late March. Tesla's struggles in China today contrast with the prepandemic years, when Chinese leaders appeared willing to do anything to court Musk. Their hope was that Tesla's expansion in China would propel underachieving local automakers and help build out the country's EV market. Chinese officials likened it to lobbing a predatory catfish into a pond full of sluggish fish. China provided Musk and Tesla with cheap land, low-interest loans and tax incentives. In 2018, Tesla announced plans to build its first overseas car factory in Shanghai, becoming the first foreign automaker Beijing allowed to produce cars in China without a local partner. Tesla's sales in China surged, as did its exports from Shanghai to other markets. Tesla's presence also paid off for Beijing, igniting consumer interest in domestically made EVs and accelerating development of China's EV supply chain. Soon, some Chinese automakers were adopting Tesla technologies such as 'gigacasting," which employs high-pressure aluminum die-casting to create a car's frame, combining hundreds of manufacturing steps into one to save costs and time. Xiaomi was among those that followed suit. In April 2023, Chinese automakers' progress stunned attendees at an annual auto show in Shanghai. During the pandemic, Western auto executives had limited access to the country. But now, they found an utterly changed streetscape, with EVs everywhere and cars that were far more advanced than anticipated. Although Musk came to China to leverage its low costs and enormous market, he wasn't prepared for China's response, said Bill Russo, chief executive of Automobility, a Shanghai-based strategy firm. 'What he didn't bargain for is that Chinese companies would do that, too, and they would probably do it even better than you can," he said. 'He made the same mistake that every foreign automaker made—to underestimate China's ability to out-innovate you." A big risk for Musk now is that the same pattern will play out in other businesses Tesla is banking on for future growth. In late March, Tesla began shipping 'Megapack" batteries, which provide grid-scale energy storage, from a newly built Shanghai factory to its first overseas market, Australia. It's a business Beijing wants to grow and which multiple companies, including CATL, are moving into. Musk also wants Tesla to dominate humanoid robots, a business he says could someday generate revenues north of $10 trillion. Tesla's plans currently call for producing thousands of Optimus humanoid robots in the U.S., a goal that relies on Chinese suppliers for components including planetary roller screws for robot joints and motors for robot hands, people familiar with the matter said. Engineers from Chinese suppliers have worked overtime with Optimus engineers to complete designs. The suppliers' efficiencies have enabled Tesla to cut costs for some components so dramatically that the company didn't bother suspending shipments even after Washington imposed hefty tariffs on Chinese imports, the people said. Visitors look at Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus at its exhibition booth during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai last July. Now, China has its own batch of robotic startups, such as Unitree and Agibot, gearing up to compete with American companies. As Chinese suppliers work with Tesla, it could speed up that process. 'Once you secure contracts with Tesla, domestic robotics companies will be much more willing to collaborate with you," said Chen Feng, a marketing manager at an Optimus supplier. 'Tesla can play catfish again." During a recent call with analysts, Musk said he believed his Optimus was No. 1 in the sector. But he worried China would eventually dominate the field. 'I'm a little concerned that on the leaderboard, ranks two through 10 will be Chinese companies," Musk said. Grace Zhu contributed to this article. Write to Raffaele Huang at Lingling Wei at and Yoko Kubota at
Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
Asian shares cautious on trade angst, oil falls
Asian shares posted modest moves at the open as investors awaited progress on trade deals with the US ahead of the July 9 deadline imposed by President Donald Trump. Indexes in Japan, Australia and South Korea posted small declines after Trump administration officials signaled Aug. 1 as the date for higher levies to kick in and said some countries may get more time to negotiate deals. Oil fell 1.1% to $67.57 a barrel as OPEC+ said it will increase production. Treasuries were steady as cash trading resumed after the July 4 holiday. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Sunteck Presents 2/3BHK Sea View Homes at ₹98L+* in Mumbai Sunteck Realty Learn More Undo Investors are focusing on the outcomes of several trade negotiations for clues on the next turn in markets. Stocks have rebounded to a record since their plunge in April, when Trump introduced his sweeping levies and then announced a 90-day pause for countries to negotiate with the US. Major US trading partners hurried over the weekend to secure trade deals. 'This is a reflection of some uncertainty over the July 9 reciprocal tariff expiry deadline,' said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG in Sydney. A tariff rate of 10%-15% on most if not all countries would be welcome by traders, whereas a rate greater than 20% 'would rattle markets to varying degrees depending on the extent of the increase,' he said. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said country-by-country tariffs will take effect Aug. 1. Negotiations still remained ongoing ahead of the deadline, with European leaders pushing for a deal that would allow tariff relief on carmakers for increasing US investments. Live Events Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated some countries may be offered a three-week extension to negotiate. 'We judge there is a risk that President Trump reinstates higher 'reciprocal' tariffs on major economies such as Japan and Europe,' Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists including Joseph Capurso wrote in a note to clients. Separately, China said it will impose some reciprocal curbs on medical-device procurement for companies based in the European Union, adding tensions between the two major trading partners just as Beijing seeks to shore up ties with the US. Meanwhile, the latest oil supply shockwave unleashed by OPEC+ is set to swell a surplus later this year, pressuring prices for producers the world over while answering Trump's calls for lower fuel costs. The increase, faster than traders and analysts foresaw, may contribute to a crude surplus later this year with firms such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. anticipating that prices sink near $60 a barrel in the fourth quarter. 'For now, the oil market remains tight, suggesting it can absorb additional barrels,' said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS AG in Zurich. 'But there are rising risks like ongoing trade tensions, implying that the market could look less tight over the coming 6-12 months, which would pose downside risks to prices.'
Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
Liangzhu, the coder 'village' at the heart of China's AI frenzy
HANGZHOU: It was a sunny Saturday afternoon, and dozens of people sat in the grass around a backyard stage where aspiring founders of tech startups talked about their ideas. People in the crowd slouched over laptops, vaping and drinking strawberry Frappuccinos. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now A drone buzzed overhead. Inside the house, investors took pitches in the kitchen. It looked like Silicon Valley, but it was Liangzhu, a quiet suburb of the southern Chinese city of Hangzhou, a hot spot for entrepreneurs and tech talent lured by low rents and proximity to tech companies like Alibaba and DeepSeek. "People come here to explore their own possibilities," said Felix Tao, 36, a former Facebook and Alibaba employee who hosted the event. Virtually all of those possibilities involve AI. As China faces off with the US over tech primacy, Hangzhou has become the centre of China's AI frenzy. A decade ago, provincial and local govts started offering subsidies and tax breaks to new firms in Hangzhou, a policy that has helped incubate hundreds of startups. On weekends, people fly in from Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen to hire programmers. Lately, many of them have ended up in Tao's backyard. Now Tao's home is a hub for coders who have settled in Liangzhu, many in 20s and 30s. They call themselves "villagers", writing code in coffee shops during the day and gaming together at night, hoping to harness AI to create their own companies. Hangzhou has already birthed tech powerhouses, including Alibaba and DeepSeek. Graduates from Hangzhou's Zhejiang University have become sought-after employees at Chinese tech firms. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Mingming Zhu, founder of Rokid that makes AI-enabled eyeglasses, said govt officials had helped him connect with Rokid's earliest investors, including Alibaba founder Jack Ma. But some said the govt support had scared off some investors. Founders said it was difficult to attract funds from foreign venture capital firms, frustrating their ambitions to grow outside China. Another uncertainty is access to the advanced computers chips. Many in Tao's backyard said the atmosphere in Hangzhou, set on the banks of a lake that was muse to generations of poets and painters, fuelled their creativity. Lin Yuanlin, whose Zeabur provides back-end systems to those making apps and websites, said he can lean over to someone in a coffee shop or wander into a neighbour's living room and learn what kind of support they need for their startups. Lin found himself going to Liangzhu so often that he moved there.
