Quick test is a ‘significant predictor' of a potentially life-threatening condition

New York Post

21-05-2025

What's in your gut might just break your heart — literally.
For years, doctors have used body mass index (BMI) as the standard tool for measuring obesity and assessing a patient's risk of developing heart failure.
But new research suggests that a simple ratio involving your waistline may be an even better predictor. The best part? You can calculate it yourself at home — here's how.
3 There is no cure for heart disease, but early intervention can slow progression and improve patient outcomes.
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Gut check
Research presented this week at the European Society of Cardiology's scientific congress looked at 1,792 adults aged 45 to 73.
Participants were split into three groups: those with normal blood sugar, prediabetes and diabetes. Over a 13-year follow-up period, 132 developed heart failure.
Here's the kicker: researchers linked a larger waist relative to height to a 'significantly increased' risk of heart failure.
In fact, those with a waist-to-height ratio (WtHR) of 0.65 or higher were nearly three times more likely to develop the potentially deadly condition.
'BMI is the most common measure of obesity, but it is influenced by factors such as sex and ethnicity, and does not take into account the distribution of body fat,' said study co-author Dr. John Molvin of Lund University in Sweden.
3 The circumference of your waist should be less than half your height.
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Unlike BMI, WtHR targets central adiposity, or excess fat in the abdomen that surrounds internal organs. This fat poses a stronger risk for health problems such as heart disease, Type 2 diabetes and even an early death compared to general obesity.
'We found that WtHR was a significant predictor of incident [heart failure],' said Molvin, adding that it may be a more reliable measure than BMI to identify those at risk and who could benefit from obesity treatments.
Next, the researchers plan to explore whether WtHR can predict other health issues, like Type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure.
Killing millions, costing billions
Heart failure is a progressive condition that occurs when the heart muscle is damaged and can no longer pump enough blood and oxygen to the body's other organs.
It's extremely common in the US, with rates climbing steadily over the last decade, particularly in younger populations.
3 Heart disease is a major public health concern and a growing economic burden in the US.
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Some 6.7 million Americans over 20 are living with heart failure. That number is expected to jump to 8.7 million by 2030 and a staggering 11.4 million by 2050, according to the Heart Failure Society of America.
Key risk factors include an age over 65, a family history and high blood pressure or coronary artery disease. Obesity also plays a major role, with studies linking it to 11% of heart failure cases in men and 14% in women.
While there's no cure for heart failure, early detection is critical. Timely treatment can slow progression, improve quality of life and prevent complications.
Without it, heart disease can be fatal. It's a top killer in the US, responsible for 8.5% of cardiovascular-related deaths.
How to calculate your waist-to-height ratio
To calculate your WtHR, all you need is a tape measure (and maybe a calculator). Simply measure the circumference of your waist and divide it by your height.
Experts say your waist should be less than half your height, with a healthy WtHR falling between 0.4 and 0.49.
'Having a waist measurement that is less than half your height is ideal,' Molvin said.
For example, if you're 170 centimeters tall, your waist should ideally be under 85 centimeters.