Article In UAE Daily: The Gulf States' Silence On The Iran-Israel Conflict Stems From Fear Of Its Possible Ramifications

Memri

18-06-2025

Against the backdrop of the escalating Israel-Iran military conflict, Yemeni journalist Hani Salem Mashour explained in his June 16, 2025 column in the UAE daily Al-Arab that the UAE is working to stop the escalation because of its profound fear that the situation's deterioration into a broad regional war would threaten its own existence and that of all the Gulf states.
Stating that "the deliberate silence of the Gulf states today does not mean neutrality, but is [the result of their] careful calculations," he added that while they cannot allow Iran to go nuclear and cannot forget Iran's consistent support for militias that destabilize the region, at the same time they cannot risk an expansion of the war which would undermine the stability of the region. Risking an expanded war is also not an option for them, he wrote, as it is they who will suffer for it.
Noting in this context that the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war "tore the entire Arab Gulf to shreds," he recalled how these countries had "paid a heavy price in stability, security, and economy" for a war in which they had no part. He added that the Gulf states now want to prevent this from happening again, and thus the UAE strives to stop the region from igniting and is seeking a diplomatic solution.
He also wrote that the waging of this battle must not be left in the hands of "actors obsessed with a bloody [military] win," and called on "rational Arabs – headed by the UAE – to continue to play a balancing, responsible role, not just due to fear of the fire, but also due to the awareness that the entire region will not survive if one of its elements burns up."
The following is a translation of excerpts from Mashour's June 16, 2025 article:
"From the heart of the deep strikes that shake Iran from within, and from among the echoes of the explosions in the nuclear basements and nuclear warehouses, a new map of regional deterrence is being drawn: Israel strikes and Iran is silent or finds it difficult to respond. At the same time, eyes are raised to the Arab Gulf – not because it is a side in the conflict, but because it is the arena that is at risk and is expected to explode. Amid this historic collision between two axes that are armed with both ideology and technology, the UAE emerges as a different voice, that is trying to tell the world that not all countries are lining up behind the fire.
"For decades, the UAE has believed that stability is not an accident of circumstance but a strategic identity, and in the current scene that is in flames, it is again presenting itself as a responsible state that is attempting, using diplomacy, to hold open the door of reason. While not denying that Israel and Iran have entered a stage of open conflict, and not ignoring the multi-sided nature of the [Iran-Israel] conflict [indirectly involving arenas] from Gaza to Sana'a, from Lebanon to the heart of Tehran. But at the same time, it understands very well that this great conflagration [of the direct Iran-Israel conflict] will sweep everyone away..
"With every explosion in Iran, [Arabs] must ask: Who will pay if this clash crosses the gray lines and becomes an all-out regional war?
"The UAE, and with it the Arab Gulf states, know the answer to this question all too well. They lived an entire decade in this region under the shadow of others' clashes. The Iran-Iraq war was not only at Iran's borders; it also tore the entire Arab Gulf to shreds... The Arab Gulf states paid a heavy price in stability, security, and economy for a war in which they had no part. As far as the political consciousness of the Gulf [states] and of the UAE in particular is concerned, the drums of war are a warning sign...
"The UAE leadership realizes that the region cannot endure a major war; when wars break out, they don't care about geography [i.e. they spill over and expand] ... The UAE experienced this when the fire of the Houthis spread from Sa'ada [in Yemen] across the entire Arabian Peninsula...
"In light of this clash, it has become clear that the entire Arab Gulf, led by the UAE and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is carefully considering its options. True, no one [in the Gulf] will trust a nuclear Iran, and true, no one will forget Iran's bankrolling of the [Shi'ite] militias and destruction of [Arab] countries. But [for the Gulf states,] standing on the threshold of a mini-world war between Israel and Iran is not an acceptable option...
"The deliberate silence of the Gulf [states] today does not mean neutrality, but is [the result of their] careful calculations. As the Israelis wage their security campaign [against the Iranian nuclear project] and the Iranians are getting slapped again and again, the responsible Arabs are working to put out the fire, not pour oil on it. That is the fundamental difference between a country that believes that hegemony is [achieved] through destruction and one that believes that genuine influence is built only through development, openness, and stable partnerships.
"The truth is that the world should listen more to the voice of the UAE... It is unfortunate that this voice is sometimes sidelined amid the clamor of guns and speeches about the 'holy' wars, even though it is the only balanced voice warning against a recurrence of past catastrophes.
"The current Israel-Iran campaign, which is likely to expand to Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, must not be left in the hands of actors obsessed with a bloody [military] win. The rational Arabs – headed by the UAE – must continue to play a balancing, responsible role, not just out of fear of the fire, but also out of an understanding that [if the situation develops into war], the entire region will not survive if one of its elements burns up."
"It is true that the UAE is not a superpower – but it is a country with a vision. It is true that its diplomacy does not work miracles, but it prevents disasters. In moments of great madness, what we need is not more missiles, but more courage to say no to war...
"The UAE, which over the past five decades has gained top-quality mediation experience, understands that the window [of opportunity for] negotiations is closing rapidly, and that the last chance for containing the Iranian nuclear crisis and mutual Tel Aviv-Tehran deterrence is only through quiet diplomatic channels...
"The UAE's position today... is to aspire to build a rational Arab position to strengthen the region [and protect it] from spilling over into open [battle]fronts, to lay the foundation for viable understandings that will transcend this emotional moment, and to re-establish a regional balance of interests based on shared security, respect for sovereignty, and a halt to foreign interference [in each other's domestic affairs].
"Today, every diplomatic move by the UAE, and all the quiet contacts [conducted] behind the scenes, are a genuine attempt to salvage what can be salvaged... What the UAE is doing today is exactly what any wise country must do: stand on the brink of [an abyss] – not to jump, but to keep others from falling."[1]