Previewing Florida baseball's competition in Conway Regional

USA Today

29-05-2025

Previewing Florida baseball's competition in Conway Regional
Florida might be the No. 2 seed in the Conway Regional, but many consider the Gators a favorite to advance to the Super Regionals.
The Orange and Blue were perhaps one win away from securing a hosting spot in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament and are playing some of the best baseball in the country over the last month. A 14-4 finish to conference play all but erased the memory of a 1-11 start, and Florida is looking to do some damage in June. Advancing through the regional field won't be a cakewalk, though.
Coastal Carolina has the home-field advantage throughout the weekend, and East Carolina should have a decent fan showing based on proximity. Fairfield actually has an RPI of 74, which is less than 10 spots below ECU at No. 66. The Stags will have to pull off a few upsets to advance, but don't count them out of any game.
Here's a closer look at the Conway Regional field.
No. 1 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
The Chanticleers claimed the No. 13 national seed with a 48-11 record en route to a Sun Belt Conference regular season title and conference tournament championship. A combination of good defense and strong pitching is this team's calling card, and the Chants are riding an 18-game win streak.
Hitting
If there's an area where Coastal is going to struggle, it's hitting the ball and putting up runs. The Chants don't drive the long ball (56 team homers, 154th nationwide) despite being in a hitter-friendly park. Still, their 109 wRC+ — a weighted metric that adjusts for competition level and ballpark nuances — is ranked No. 70 in college baseball.
Coastal doesn't have a hitter with an OPS above .942 this year and only junior infielder Blake Barthol has double-digit homers on the year. Caden Bodine is the team's best hitter — and might be the best catcher in the country — with a .333/.477/.463 slash line and 67 hits. Perhaps most impressively, Bodine has walked 44 times and struck out just 19 times. This is an elite eye, and Barthol has some pop to protect him from intentional walks.
Left fielder Sebastian Alexander, center fielder Dean Mihos and first baseman Colby Thorndyke all have 50-plus hits on the year, too. Thorndyke leads the team with 16 doubles and Alexander is the only other home run threat in the lineup with nine under his belt.
Pitching
This is where Coastal shines. Not only do the Chants have an elite starting rotation, but they also boast an elite bullpen. Jacob Morrison might be the best arm in the regional and has been a comeback star this season with an 11-0 record and 1.90 ERA. Cameron Flukey (6-1, 3.28) and Riley Eikhoff (6-2, 3.19) round out one of the best trios in the country.
Morrison is 6-foot-8 and 245 pounds with a four-pitch mix. His fastball rides and sits just under 93 mph. He can reach back for 95, but his mid-70s curveball plays off it well regardless of speed. Batters are hitting just .098 against Morrison's curveball, and his slider is just as devastating with a 39% whiff rate. Flukey has some more heat, touching 98 at times with the fastball. It draws a ton of swings and sets up an even better curveball (50.7% whiff rate). Eikhoff doesn't have the same velocity as the other two starters, but he has been around college ball for a while and does not walk guys.
The bullpen is just as good and is a major reason Coastal has the second-best ERA (3.24) in the country. Seven different arms have 16 or more appearances on the year, five of which threw more 23 innings or more. One of those pitchers is freshman Luke Jones (48.2 IP, 3.51), who has worked as a starter and a reliever. In a regional setting, he's likely to come out of the bullpen, giving Coastal another weapon on the mound.
Dominick Carbone (34.1, 2.36) and Ryan Lynch (29.2, 0.61) are the two most-used arms in terms of appearances, playing in 25 and 23 games, respectively. Carbone's a lefty and Lynch is a righty. That kind of versatility is good for playing matchups. Hayden Johnson (28.2, 3.45) is the No. 2 lefty out of the 'pen and has the highest K% among qualified pitchers on the team, 32.3. The last name to know here is Matthew Potok (30.2, 2.05), a junior with an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio (31:6).
No. 2 Florida Gators
Florida might not be the No. 1 seed, but this is as dangerous as No. 2 seeds get in college baseball. Florida can hit the ball well for both contact and power. Brody Donay could do some serious damage this weekend if he taps into that power stroke, but the Gators' pitching staff has to limit the damage to get through games efficiently.
Hitting
Florida might score just 0.1 more runs per game than Coastal Carolina, but there's no doubt that UF is the best offensive team in the regional. The Gators are ranked No. 31 as a team with 88 homers this year and are a top-50 team in wRC+ with 115. Losing Luke Heyman to a fractured arm is a big hit to the offense, but there's plenty of depth on this roster even with several injuries throughout the year.
Led by Colby Shelton (.377/.458/.606) and Bobby Boser(.330/.433/.598), Florida's top of the order is lethal. The duo has combined for 140 hits, 96 RBIs, 31 doubles and 23 homers and mans the left side of the infield without many mistakes. Boser has more pop (this year), but Shelton has changed his approach to the plate to drastically lower his strikeout rate. He walks (21) nearly as much as he strikes out (24) now, making him one of the SEC's most dangerous bats.
Freshman phenom Brendan Lawson (.301/.408/.498) is among the best rookie hitters in the country and has a penchant for coming up clutch. Donay is a 70-grade power bat or better when he's seeing it well, and even guys like Ty Evans, Justin Nadeau and Hayden Yost are starting to heat up. Because of the setting, Florida might need to overpower some of its opponents this weekend.
Pitching
Florida finally has all four of its main arms active and relatively healthy. The trio of Liam Peterson (8-3, 4.10), Aidan King (6-2, 2.76) and Pierce Coppola (3-0, 1.86) have some of the best potential in the country, but only King has lived up to, or exceeded, expectations this year. There's also Jake Clemente, who started the year in the weekend rotation but has found a more comfortable role as multi-inning closer.
Peterson has the 98-mph fastball and a 12.6 K/9, making him one of the top arms in the 2026 draft class. However, he hasn't been the most consistent starter for Florida this year. He's recently performed at the ace level, but it's hard to tell when Peterson is bringing the best version of himself. If he's anything less, Florida might run into trouble.
King has burst onto the season as a freshman and is at the top of his draft class (2027) as well. He's fastball-heavy but still averages a strikeout per inning and rarely walks guys (7.6%). Still, he hasn't ever pitched with the pressure of a regional hanging over his head, so there's an element of uncertainty to consider.
Rounding out the rotation is Pierce Coppola, who has dealt with injuries most of his college career. When he's healthy, though, Coppola is among the best strikeout artists in the country. He has 38 strikeouts over 19.1 innings this year, which is an 18 K/9. Coppola's going to make batters look silly at some point this weekend, but he needs to show some stamina if Florida is going to make a serious run in the NCAA Tournament.
The bullpen is a bit more hazy than the starting rotation. Clemente, senior Billy Barlow and sophomore Luke McNeillie are the three staples. Clemente will come in with a one-run lead in the seventh and close out the game, while the other two tend to work an inning or two before turning it over to someone else. Both Barlow and McNeillie have slightly elevated ERAs at 5.67 and 4.65, respectively. The latter is a strikeout artist, though, with 71 over 50 frames.
Behind that trio are Jackson Barberi, Alex Philpott and Christian Rodriguez. Barberi is a freshman who has shown promise, Rodriguez has improved a ton over the season after coming back from Tommy John and Philpott was a trusted arm last season. It's hard to tell which one of the three Kevin O'Sullivan will go with, but they're all righties so it'll come down to who he trusts most right now.
No. 3 East Carolina Pirates
East Carolina is always in the mix to make some noise in June, but this isn't the strongest version of the Pirates compared to years past. They don't hit particularly well but do have a solid pitching staff and won an AAC Tournament Championship.
Hitting
The Pirates score the least amount of runs (6.3) in the region, by more than an entire run. Junior second baseman Dixon Williams has been a standout at the plate, slashing .296/.451/.563 with 13 homers and 48 runs batted in. He's a five-tool threat with speed (22 stolen bases) and a premium glove. He's a better fit at second base, but ECU can put him at short whenever it feels right.
Freshman outfielder Braden Buress is another bat worth knowing with a .994 OPS and .392 batting average over 236 plate appearances. Buress has walked (28) more than he's struck out (24) this season and can steal bases (16). The only other Pirate with an OPS above .900 and more than two games played is freshman outfielder Braxton Tramel, who hasn't played since April 12. He's unlikely to return in the playoffs, but senior Ryley Johnson has stepped up inhis place.
Freshman first baseman Austin Irby is solid with runners on base, driving in 43 runs this year. He has nine homers, which is good for third on the team behind Williams and sophomore third baseman Colby Wallace (10). Besides Irby and Williams, there aren't too many threats in this lineup.
Pitching
Ethan Norby is the leader of this pitching staff and he's had quite a strong 2025 after breaking out in early March. Norby gained national attention after striking out 19 over 7.1 innings. Despite putting up dominant numbers over the regular season (7-5, 3.81 ERA, 109 K, 22 BB), ECU used Norby out of the bullpen at times in the conference tournament. Expect him to start against Florida on Friday, but his stamina might be a question mark for him, especially if the plan is to use him more than once this weekend.
Freshman Sean Jenkins (4-4, 5.35) has the second-most starts and innings on the team. He's stuck in the No. 2 spot for most of the year, making spot starts on Sundays and during the midweek whenever necessary. Florida likely won't see him if he's the Game 2 starter. It's hard to tell who the third starter is here, but sophomore Brad Pruett (5-5, 4.77) was the hero in the conference tournament, throwing five scoreless innings in relief.
Senior Jake Hunter (2-3) and freshman Lance Williams (2-1, 5.30) are right-handed relief options, and Liberty transfer Nick Moran (1-1, 3.68) is the main lefty.
No. 4 Fairfield Stags
Who doesn't love some MAAC-tion? Fairfield won its conference tournament and qualified for the NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed. For a No. 4 seed, this is about as good as it gets.
Hitting
Dean Ferrara (.381/.444/.529) is one of the nation's top hitters with 98 on the year. Only 22 of those are for extra bases, but he's still the best bat in the lineup. The pop comes from Matt Bucciero (.351/.468/.635) and Luke Nomura (.331/.444/.585), who each have 78 hits and 14 homers. Bucciero is the team RBI leader with 66, and Nomura is third with 52. All three guys can steal bases.
Nick Sturino (.2765/.446/.478) and TJ Schmalzle (.282/.430/.484) both have an OPS north of .900, but it's those three bats mentioned above that carry the offense daily. Of course, Fairfield isn't playing an SEC schedule, so it'll be interesting to see how well the Stags hit against tougher competition.
Pitching
For a No. 4 seed, Fairfield is pretty well-rounded. Bowen Baker (8-1, 3.20), Ben Alekson (9-1, 3.24) and Kyle Lesler (5-1, 3.97) make up the weekend rotation and should give the Stags a fighting chance in each game. Beating Coastal in the opening round will be tough, but Alekson or Baker are more than capable of leading the team to a win.
The three main relief arms for Fairfield are Blake Helmstetter (3-3, 5.45), Matthew Grabmann (6-3, 4.82) and Jack Sheldon (2-2, 8.04). Sheldon got work as a starter, too, which helps explain the elevated ERA. Grabmann is the innings-eater out of the 'pen with more than 50 frames thrown on the year, and Helmstetter is the top lefty.
Conway Regional Schedule
Game # Matchup When TV Game 1 East Carolina vs. Florida Friday, May 30; Noon ESPN2 Game 2 Fairfield vs. Coastal Carolina Friday, May 30; 6 p.m. ESPN+ Game 3 Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2 Saturday, May 31; Noon TBD Game 4 Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2 Saturday, May 31; 6 p.m. TBD Game 5 Loser Game 4 vs. Winner Game 3 Sunday, June 1; Noon TBD Game 6 Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 Sunday, June 1; 6 p.m. TBD Game 7* Winner Game 6 vs. Loser Game 6 Monday, June 2; TBD TBD
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