Axis Bank Share Price Live Updates: Axis Bank Closes at Rs 1099.60
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Economic Times
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From hype to value: Indian IPOs offer better valuation comfort in 2025, says Sreeram Ramdas
After a frenzied run of overhyped IPOs in recent years, India's primary market seems to be undergoing a meaningful shift. In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, Sreeram Ramdas, Vice President at Green Portfolio, shares how 2025 is shaping up to be a year of value-driven public issues rather than momentum-led listings. He highlights how investor caution, fewer aggressive valuations, and stronger fundamentals are helping restore balance in the IPO space, offering better comfort to long-term investors. Edited Excerpts - ADVERTISEMENT Q) The second half of 2025 started on a volatile note. How are you looking at the markets? One of the reasons could be FIIs selling, which continues in July. A) While FII selling is certainly a contributing factor, we don't believe it's the sole reason for the market's recent volatility. We see three primary drivers behind the market's pronounced reactions over the past few days. First, the initial earnings reports from top-tier Nifty companies have fallen short of expectations. In the banking sector, for instance, we saw weak numbers from Axis Bank, driven by an increase in provisions. In IT, TCS only managed to post positive year-on-year revenue growth thanks to favourable USD/INR currency fluctuations. Second, and what we consider the most significant factor, is the mounting uncertainty surrounding the trade deal with the US. As we approach the August 1st deadline, the markets are growing increasingly sceptical. ADVERTISEMENT Finally, we're observing foreign institutions downgrading Indian markets, labelling them as expensive, which has prompted the FII selling you mentioned. These are the main reasons why Indian markets are likely to remain volatile and range-bound for the time being.Q) IPOs have picked up recently, but EY report highlighted that Indian IPO activity in the first half of 2025 recorded 108 deals raising US$4.6b, demonstrating market resilience despite a 30% decline in transactions.A) This is exactly the kind of IPO market we've been waiting for. The sharp decline in IPO volume and the fewer companies ringing the bell are positive, not negatives. ADVERTISEMENT From a valuation standpoint, we're now seeing EV scooter manufacturers approaching the market with a more reasonable 11x price-to-earnings context, in FY24, EV players were listing at an average P/E of 25x. We're seeing a similar trend of moderation across retail, textiles, and chemicals. ADVERTISEMENT In FY24, a staggering 242 companies went public, and many are now facing headwinds in the secondary market—about 40% of them are currently trading below their offer contrast to the last three years, we're now seeing IPOs that offer both value and growth, leaving sufficient room for valuation of comfort. This was a rarity in the overheated market of the recent past. Q) What is the initial sense you are picking up from the June quarter results, which have started to come out? ADVERTISEMENT A) Commodity-focused companies are performing exceptionally well, whereas service-oriented players are struggling to post positive results. Major players in cables, petrochemicals, and steel are reporting splendid results, especially on the bottom line, thanks to improved anticipate a strong earnings season for chemical companies, driven by an uptick in exports of specialty molecules to the US, new chemistries coming online for some major players, and expanding we expect the broader markets to show strong performance with revenue growth in the early teens and improving margins. However, our outlook for the Nifty 50 companies specifically is more tepid. Q) Is the current equity market rally largely liquidity-driven, or are there sufficient earnings fundamentals to back the optimism? A) It's mostly liquidity-driven. While we do expect earnings to be positive, the overall valuations remain expensive. Citibank wasn't wrong to downgrade the Indian markets. We have already shifted to cash in our model micro and small-cap oriented "Super 30" fund currently has a 25% cash holding, its highest in 10 months. The last time we exceeded this level was last are plenty of fundamentally strong companies with bright prospects, but the dilemma is that their current valuations already reflect their bullish performance for the next two to three years. Q) SIPs crossed Rs27K – what does it talk about the retail investor behaviour change? A) These are very positive signs. Instead of trying to time the markets or solely relying on a 'buy the dip' strategy, investors are demonstrating a greater inclination towards disciplined equity funds experience volatility, investors are now flocking to hybrid and arbitrage funds rather than abandoning the markets altogether. This behaviour is definitely changing for the better. Q) How is the corporate bond market shaping up here in India? A) At its current stage, the size of the Indian corporate bond market is negligible. To put it in perspective, while the US has a $14 trillion corporate bond market, ours is just $500 billion in with the rise of online bond platforms, lower ticket sizes of ₹10,000, and better yields for investors compared to fixed deposits, the corporate bond market is poised to grow by leaps and bounds from increasing issuance of higher credit ratings and the improved balance sheets of corporates further support the case for growth in corporate bond issuance. Q) Where are the pockets of opportunities coming from? A) We're finding opportunities in chemicals, automobile components, and select corporate turnarounds. Our sectoral exposure is varied, with no allocation to banking or IT at the moment. With chemical exports rising and price realizations improving, we continue to add names in this auto component space is a highly debated one. While many automakers are struggling with sales de-growth, auto volumes are still growing in specific regions, both abroad and auto component players we invest in are trading at a 16x price-to-earnings multiple, while we expect them to grow by a factor of 20-25%. Q) Where is the smart money moving? A) Lately, FII equity exposure has been shifting towards the Telecom and Financial sectors, while moving out of FMCG and Capital Goods. We expect this trend to continue if overall consumption remains investment circles, the defence industry has become more appealing, given the growth on both the export and domestic fronts. The challenge here is that there are far too many funds chasing a limited number of small stocks in the defence space. Q) How should one play the small & midcap space? A) When investing in any mid or small-cap stock, you must be prepared to stomach a 40% fall, regardless of how fundamentally strong the company is. This is a long-term game with the potential for higher returns, but it comes with higher risk. There are many exogenous factors at play that you'll have no control over, no matter how skilled you instance, Nectar Lifesciences, a small-cap company, baffled investors this July by deciding to sell off its entire business. This is just one example. It's ideal to have at least 15 stocks in your portfolio if you're aiming to invest in this you prefer the relative stability of the large-cap space, you should be fine with a more concentrated 10-stock portfolio. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
