Why Wall Street still hasn't priced in Trump

Politico

3 days ago

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Readers —
Politics and policy — the forces we obsess over at POLITICO — are now shaping the world of finance in more immediate, disruptive, and consequential ways than ever. So we're evolving one of our most durable franchises to meet that moment.
Welcome to Morning Money: Capital Risk. This reimagined Friday edition of our essential Morning Money newsletter is designed to bring POLITICO readers — and especially those in financial and business roles — sharper insight into how political and policy developments are moving markets, affecting risk and rippling through the economy.
We're doing this because the volatility of this moment is producing the most consequential political-economic story in a generation, from trade to finance to energy and more. And the responses — from Congress to city halls to global CEOs — carry their own economic consequences.
We're also listening closely to our audience. POLITICO readers and Pro subscribers already rely on Morning Money as an indispensable guide to the intersection of politics, Wall Street, financial regulation and the economy. Now, more financial professionals — from hedge fund analysts to institutional strategists — are turning to POLITICO not just for financial regulatory headlines, but for help making sense of political and policy risk across the economy. We are uniquely equipped to deliver that insight.
In this new Friday edition, Morning Money author Sam Sutton and economics correspondent Victoria Guida will go deeper into the downstream consequences of policy decisions. They'll also be joined by voices from across POLITICO — in energy, health care, defense, tech and in state and foreign capitals — offering their urgent reporting and analysis tailored to what investors and risk-minded professionals need to know now.
Enjoy today's edition, and let us know what you think. Thank you, as always, for reading.
Joe SchatzDeputy Editor in Chief
President Donald Trump's trade agenda and his attempts to undermine Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pose risks to markets and the broader economy. His management of both issues will collide next week in ways that could take investors and CEOs by surprise.
With the Fed expected to hold the line on interest rates on Wednesday, the administration's systematic assault on Powell for refusing to lower short-term rates has fueled speculation that Trump will try to fire the central bank chair. At the same time, hefty new taxes on critical industries will take effect on Aug. 1 — on top of massive, so-called reciprocal tariffs that are scheduled to kick in the same day if the European Union, South Korea and other major trading partners fail to secure trade deals with the U.S.
The danger for investors and business leaders is that they've failed to prepare for how higher import taxes and weaker confidence in the Fed's ability to fight inflation will weigh on profits and returns. Corporate earnings swelled during the first half of the year, as did Wall Street dealmaking, despite the challenges posed by tariffs. The stock market keeps notching record high after record high.
Those very trends could end up dragging down the market, blindsiding investors. Trump has often treated share prices as a scorecard for his agenda, and recent stock market gains have fortified the White House's argument that his hard-charging policies will trigger an economic boom, even as many economists warn that slower growth and higher consumer prices will become increasingly visible before the end of the year.
The concern is that the president may read the steady path upward for stocks as a license to push even harder on both tariffs and the Fed.
'The fact that the markets have been so ebullient, so effervescent, in the last six months has made Trump feel more emboldened that he can get away with [his economic agenda] without feeling much of a challenge,' said Ian Bremmer, the founder of the political risk firm Eurasia Group.
For now, markets will likely remain buoyant until corporate earnings reflect material damage from tariffs, or if the administration's war against Powell pushes up yields on long-term Treasury securities, which are a yardstick for consumer and corporate borrowing.
An enduring lesson that investors have learned over the last three years is that preemptive bets on a weakening economy can quickly land in the red. But bull runs can't last, and there's a real possibility that traders and dealmakers will soon find themselves like Wile E. Coyote, sprinting at full speed until they're over a cliff.
Trump officials are dismissive of those claims.
'The market understands what President Trump's trying to deliver,' said one senior administration official who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about the headwinds for the president's policies. Naysaying economists 'need a little more humble pie,' the official added. '[They] just don't understand the president's policies.'
But even a more predictable scenario of how next week shakes out isn't entirely market-friendly.
The most benign take on how things will play out is that Powell doesn't lower rates and Trump continues to berate him but doesn't escalate his war on the Fed. And then, the president also announces a few trade deals, while otherwise punting his tariff deadline and pledging to keep negotiating with key trading partners.
But as the world gets more clarity about where tariffs will land, that will set off a chain of events that will eventually reprice assets. Corporations will make decisions about how much to eat the added costs and how much to pass along to consumers.
'To some extent, markets have normalized higher tariffs' when it comes to pronouncements from the White House, said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. 'We haven't really normalized the costs associated with it. The markets need to see it in earnings to really respond to it.'
Consider: Trump is imposing a 15 percent tariff on Japan's exports to the U.S., including autos, which had only been subject to minimal duties before he returned for a second term. Other tariff deals have settled at levels much higher than the current 10 percent baseline — something that's already showing up in inflation data and automaker earnings. And as Powell's support among GOP lawmakers shows signs of strain, there's now more political cover for Trump to keep up his offensive on the central bank over rates, which could make investors place more bets for higher long-term inflation.
Stephen Moore, a former economic adviser to the president, said Powell's widely telegraphed plan to keep rates where they are 'will only further antagonize Trump, and the war of words will continue.' And when it comes to tariffs, even though U.S. assets have rallied on news of progress on new trade agreements, 'there is a nervousness about what happens next,' he said.
Of course, tariff volatility also boosted revenue for Big Bank trading desks, which has aided stocks. Investors have also benefited from the growth of artificial intelligence, tax cut extensions, deregulation and favorable economic data.
But most C-suite leaders believe their businesses remain unprepared to address the dangers posed by tariffs, geopolitical threats, or other hazards, said Jacob Silverman, the CEO of Kroll, a leading risk advisory firm. That 'could suggest some vulnerability' if investors are caught flat-footed by both unforeseen shocks or the manifestation of well-established risks.
No one has 'an understanding of what's going to happen next year, next month, next week, or even in the next hour,' Silverman said. The first half was defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, he added. Accordingly: 'People's confidence in their own preparedness becomes questioned ever more.'
Happy Friday — And welcome to the first edition of Morning Money: Capital Risk, which we plan to bring to your inbox every Friday. We'd love your feedback on what you think: [e-mail] and [e-mail]. And as always, you can direct your MM tips and pitches to Sam.
Trump's big, beautiful AI play
The release of Trump's 'AI Action Plan' this week was a turning point in how the federal government will oversee an industry that's touted as a key driver for future productivity and growth. Sam spoke with members of POLITICO's (real, human) AI braintrust about what Trump's directive will mean for investors.
'I expect Trump's AI directive to advance investments quite a bit. It's a full speed ahead kind of environment, with faster permitting and new federal lands to build on,' said Mohar Chatterjee, a tech reporter who covers artificial intelligence and special projects. She later added that it will largely benefit AI powerhouses that already have the 'capacity to invest heavily in public-private infrastructure initiatives.'
But while industry players are bullish on Trump's directive, there are several practical and political challenges that could impede progress. The action plan contains few 'grand new ideas about how to fundamentally address' the industries' massive energy needs, Chatterjee said. That could slow construction of new AI data centers and infrastructure that have been massive investment targets for tech companies and asset managers.
The action plan could provide a jolt to energy permitting changes that congressional leaders have treated like a 'shiny object,' as previous legislative attempts to streamline those processes stalled out, said Anthony Adragna, who covers tech and Congress.
Furthermore, if Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr attempts to preempt state regulations — particularly those that protect intellectual property — the administration could run afoul of Republican lawmakers like Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia — who blasted the administration's AI strategy on Thursday. Trump derided those safeguards as 'not doable.' If the administration undermines rules that limit usage of copyrighted material, it would be bad news for investors in publishing companies, movie studios, or the music industry.
Talking Points
Victor Negrescu, a vice president of the European Parliament, led a delegation to Washington this week to meet with lawmakers, Trump officials and business leaders and learn more about how the administration's agenda could weigh on both the economy and future European budgets.
This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
It has been reported that the U.S. and EU are close to a deal that would impose 15 percent levies on European goods. Do you think member states will sign off on that?
For the time being, it's only a rumor. It seems quite unlikely for all member states to agree with the 15 percent tariff, if this doesn't come with additional benefits for Europe on security matters, on defense, on energy, and even in terms of — let's say — investment or regulatory framework.
A big part of your visit was to determine the interaction between U.S. defense priorities and larger European defense budgets. How do you see tariffs affecting U.S. defense industries and demand for those products in Europe?
My feeling – from the U.S. angle — [is that] legislators, institutions and organizations here perceive growing financial allocations for defense [in Europe] as a way to boost growth.
They're trying to figure out how this can be done in a predictable way. Long-term planning [relies on] knowing that supply chains require some predictability.
This is also an issue for Europe, making sure that supply chains are effective, and that when we make tenders and when we sign contracts, the goods are delivered in due time. [That will] ensure security and fulfill the need for deterrence that we need to exercise — especially with the Russian Federation.
Europe will invest about 5 trillion euros in defense, out of which around 2 trillion euros will simply go toward buying equipment. The U.S. defense industry will benefit from that, especially if they will be able to deliver.
Hopefully, tariffs will not hinder likely future contracts. That actually will be more helpful for the U.S. economy and its budgetary balance than maybe collecting some taxes from tariffs.
Odds and Ends
— Trump's tour of the Fed's headquarters on Thursday led to a bizarre exchange with the central bank chair over cost overruns with its ongoing renovation. Per Victoria: 'What unfolded was a strange and tense few minutes, where a visibly uncomfortable Powell curtly corrected Trump on the renovation costs — Trump said it had ballooned to $3.1 billion, but was including a separate building that was completed several years ago. For his part, the president answered a question about how he would handle a property manager who was over budget by declaring: 'What would I do? I'd fire them.'' Trump later told reporters that he's unlikely to fire the Fed chair. 'To do that is a big move, and I just don't think it's necessary,' the president said.
— After settling a lawsuit with Trump and forswearing diversity, equity and inclusion policies, Skydance Media's merger with Paramount Global has been approved by the FCC, Bloomberg's Kelcee Griffis reports.
— The chipmaker Intel is laying off 15 percent of its workforce and canceling multibillion-dollar plans for new facilities in Europe, The WSJ's Robbie Whelan reports.
— Federal officials have considered putting a lien on Harvard properties as the White House negotiates with the university over frozen federal funds, Bloomberg's Gregory Korte and Janet Lorin report.
— Despite his previous threats, Trump on Thursday denied that he would move to cut federal contracts for Elon Musk's companies, Nicole Markus reports.
— Katherine Hapgood reports that National Credit Union Administration Board Democratic members Todd Harper and Tanya Otsuka attended Thursday's board meeting after a federal court ruling reinstated their positions earlier this week following their termination by Trump in April.