Iranian Crypto Exchange Hacked, More Than $90 Million Taken
Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange was drained of more than $90 million on Wednesday, with a pro-Israel hacking group claiming responsibility, according to a blockchain analysis firm.
The cyberattack on the exchange, Nobitex, appeared motivated by the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, blockchain analysis firm Elliptic said in a blog post. Elliptic said the hack had been carried out by Gonjeshke Darande, or 'Predatory Sparrow,' which claimed responsibility for an attack on Iran's Bank Sepah earlier this week.
A post on an X account associated with Gonjeshke Darande overnight said the exchange's source code would be released in 24 hours and that assets in the exchange would be vulnerable. Elliptic founder Tom Robinson said the claim was credible.
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Hamilton Spectator
42 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
For Mark Carney, every decision has trade-offs — but that's not slowing him down
OTTAWA—If there is a Carney 'doctrine' taking shape more than 100 days into the prime ministership of Mark Carney, maybe it is this: get it done, and damn the details. A few short months ago, Carney was blunt: 'I am a pragmatist above all. So when I see something that's not working, I will change it.' That's what the former central banker and UN climate finance envoy said when he captured the Liberal party leadership to replace Justin Trudeau. He went on to win the 2025 federal election on his outsider's pitch to rescue the economy from the threat of Donald Trump's tariff war. Pragmatism was how he justified abrupt domestic moves: ditching the consumer carbon tax, reversing capital gains tax hikes, and lowering income taxes while jamming 'nation-building' red-tape-cutting bills through Parliament to juice the economy. Pragmatism helps explain why, in his single mandate letter to cabinet ministers, Carney told them, 'We must redefine Canada's international, commercial, and security relationships.' But in an era where Trump is the one defining Canada's closest relationship, it's not clear if Carney's pragmatism can win over the U.S. president's chaos. On Friday, the unpredictable Trump cancelled talks towards a new deal with Canada, angry at Canada's deadline Monday for Big Tech giants to pay a digital services tax. Retroactive to 2022, it would collect $2.3 billion at first, and about $900 million yearly after that. Small potatoes compared to what Carney has already put on Canada's tab. In hopes of getting along with Trump, Carney in the past week promised to ramp up Canada's spending, along with NATO allies — all under intense pressure from the U.S. president — to a whopping $150 billion a year on military and related spending, a level almost unthinkable last year, as he vows to shift Canadian economic and security ties away from America towards Europe and beyond. In a spate of a few weeks, Carney signed what he calls a new economic, security and defence partnership with the European Union, increased aid to Ukraine, hosted a G7 summit where he offered backing of Trump's leadership efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and left a wide open runway for Trump to handle the Iran-Israel conflict as he saw fit. Carney defended his vow to lead where the U.S. does not, telling CNN it should be seen as a 'positive' not a negative reaction 'against' the U.S. or Trump. 'The way we would like to lead, the way European Union would like to lead, a number of Asian countries as well, is in a positive respect. If the U.S. is pulling back from multilateralism, as it is with respect to trade … effectively U.S. trade policy is now bilateral — if the U.S. is pulling back, there are others of us who do believe in multilateralism,' the rule of law, 'fair and open' trade, and in defence co-operation, said Carney. 'Do something,' seems to be the Carney mantra, said Kerry Buck, a former Canadian ambassador to NATO who welcomed the prime minister's commitment hit the new NATO military spending goal of five per cent of GDP. Although Justin Trudeau eventually committed to reaching the old NATO two per cent target at the end of last year's summit, he did so without a clear plan and with a 2032 timeline that was 'clearly going to damage our bilateral relations with the U.S. under Trump, where we're very vulnerable on trade,' said Buck, speaking before Trump's move Friday. In contrast, two weeks ahead of this week's NATO summit Carney accelerated action, said he'd hit two per cent this year, and at the summit adopted the bigger five per cent goal by 2035 with no hesitation. ' It was smart transactionally to do that. And I think in terms of content, it was also necessary,' Buck said. Others wonder how Carney is going to pay for it all. Questions remain about how the government will reach its two per cent promise this year, with the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer saying it can't verify Carney's plan to hit the old target. 'Some might start to think that he has a guns-before-butter kind of approach to foreign policy … a muscular foreign policy focused on defence,' but Buck said Carney had no choice, given it was 'our most vulnerable point' with the U.S. in ongoing trade talks. Forget the 'peace dividend' that Canada and other western allies hailed at the end of the Cold War, welcoming the ability to spend less on the military and more on social welfare systems. Now Carney and the other leaders challenged by Trump are embracing what NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called a 'defence dividend,' claiming that spending five per cent of GDP on defence will create 'an engine of growth for our economies, driving literally millions of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.' Carney echoed the claim, acknowledging higher military spending may one day entail federal spending trade-offs or sacrifices, but for now, 'more of it will help build our economy at the same time as it improves our defence. And we'll get the benefits.' There is more continuity than many think between Trudeau and Carney: Carney continued the imposition of counter-tariffs against the U.S. that Trudeau launched. But he has withheld tit-for-tat retaliation against the 50 per cent steel and aluminum penalties Trump levied pending the outcome of trade talks. Carney has continued Trudeau's staunch support for Ukraine and its embattled president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Carney backs a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, a ceasefire in Gaza, and went so far as to sanction two Israeli cabinet ministers. Like Trudeau, Carney believes government has a role and responsibility to address climate change. That Carney has moved swiftly on foreign and defence files is partly due to the flow of the international summits that coincided with his first two months after winning the April 28 election. It's also due to the urgency of the threat posed by the 'tariff' president in the White House. Carney, though, has a view of the larger global economic imbalances and the roles of China and the U.S. in those imbalances, that he shares with leaders like France's President Emmanuel Macron, and as they try to persuade Trump to drop tariffs, Carney seeks to position Canada's critical mineral, AI and quantum computing sectors for a world in which those imbalances continue. Janice Gross Stein said it is too early to describe a Carney 'doctrine' but it's clear 'the fundamental thing for him is that he, like everyone, is defining a path to dealing with a very different United States.' Carney is of necessity pursuing a new more predictable economic and security deal with the U.S. at a time of crisis , 'but it's an eyes-open arrangement,' Stein said. 'Yes, we need to diversify our partnerships — that's not a new idea in Canadian foreign policy … and yes,' Carney is focusing especially on Europe and like-minded states, and NATO, 'but that's built in to dealing with the more demanding United States.' Stein sees a pragmatic streak too in Carney's overtures to countries like China, India and Saudi Arabia. Carney identified China as the biggest threat to Canada's national security during the federal election. But in office, he's taken steps to thaw relations and ease Beijing's penalties on Canadian agricultural products. At the same time he is moving to block Chinese steel dumping via higher tariff rates against transshipment countries — in line with U.S. concerns. He rolled out a G7 welcome mat to India's Narendra Modi as a criminal investigation struggles to probe India's role in the killing of a Canadian Sikh in Surrey. And Carney invited Saudi Arabia Crown prince Mohamed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler, who declined to attend, in a week where the Saudi regime executed a journalist. Those three countries, China, India and Saudi Arabia are key economic players that are ignored at Canada's peril, said Stein. 'Where he's a pragmatist is in the recognition that every decision has trade-offs. You cannot make it a high priority to diversify your partnerships when you are the smaller next-door neighbour to a country that you are sending 75 per cent of your exports to and buying 75 per cent of everything that you buy in defence from that one country, which is the United States, and then continue to exclude others in the international community.' In parallel, said Stein, Carney is acting to ensure that Canada's economy is 'fit for purpose.' The bill to fast-track 'nation-building' development projects is part of that effort, as is his move to do 'important' consultation with Indigenous groups, but done simultaneously with other reviews, 'not sequentially,' she said. Carney is 'connecting defence, foreign policy to the Canadian economy because that's his comfort zone,' said Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, a senior fellow in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa. But she worries the emphasis on 'pragmatic' sends the wrong signal to countries like China, India or Saudi Arabia which will interpret it to mean Canada is ready to overlook human rights concerns in favour of doing business. Jonathan Berkshire Miller, director of foreign affairs, national defence and security policy at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said Carney is necessarily focused on 'two imperatives: mending the relationship with the United States and diversification from it.' And while Carney's experience gives him credibility in Washington 'where he is well known among economic and diplomatic elites,' Trump's second term makes traditional diplomatic approaches 'increasingly unrealistic,' he said. There is an inevitable geographic and economic reality, he said in a written response to the Star. 'America remains Canada's largest trading partner.' So rather than a drastic shift or severing of ties, he said, 'Expect, instead, a policy of pragmatic hedging: building multilateral ties while trying to be on balanced terms' with who is in the White House. For now, Carney may have some latitude, he believes. Increased defence spending can bring Canada greater strategic autonomy on Arctic sovereignty, cybersecurity and intelligence sharing. The narrow question is 'one of political will' where the requirements for sustained federal spending 'and public support' will be the big test, he said, particularly in an era where 'fiscal retrenchment' (Carney has vowed to bring the operating budget into balance) and 'domestic political division are the contemporary realities.' The broader question is whether Carney's pragmatic approach can secure both.
CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
Why oil prices swung so wildly during the Iran-Israel conflict and where the market goes from here
The oil market is assuming a bearish tilt after the Iran-Israel conflict ended in a ceasefire this week, with President Donald Trump hinting he could loosen sanctions against the Islamic Republic's crude exports. The 12-day conflict drove oil prices sharply higher and then lower as traders gauged the odds of a major supply disruption. U.S. crude oil prices surged more than 15% from the start of Israel's air campaign against Iran on June 13, only to peak at a five-month high on the evening of Sunday June 22 after the U.S. bombed the Islamic Republic's three key nuclear sites. Global benchmark Brent hit $81.40 per barrel at its high during the conflict. West Texas Intermediate topped out at $78.40. But the market sold off sharply as soon as it became clear that Iran had calibrated its retaliation to avoid further escalation and would not target regional oil supplies. WTI plummeted $14.40 per barrel, or 18%, from Monday's high, stirred by the U.S. bombing, to Tuesday's low on the ceasefire. "In some ways, the market has gotten more bearish since before all this started," Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, told CNBC. "Because now, maybe Iran will get to sell to China unfettered by worries of what the U.S. could do." Before the Iran-Israel conflict erupted, oil prices had already hit the lowest level since 2021 , hurt by thoughts that Trump's tariffs would slow global demand, and OPEC+ increaseing output faster than expected. The market is now returning to those soft fundamentals, Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats told clients Thursday. Oil prices will probably trade in a $5 range for the next few weeks as the market monitors what the next steps are between Iran and Israel, Dwivedi said. If investors gain confidence that the geopolitical situation has settled, the market will start trending down, with Brent heading to the low $60s on its way to the high $50s this year, the Macquarie analyst said. Bearish for market Trump suggested Tuesday that he would ease U.S. pressure on Iran, telling China in a social media post that it could keep buying oil from the Islamic Republic. Beijing purchases the majority of the 1.7 million barrels per day that Iran exports, according to data from Kpler. "This and the rapid push for a ceasefire suggests that President Trump remains sensitive to high oil prices, in our view, potentially capping the geopolitical risk premium even as the conflict may linger," Francesco Martoccia, an analyst at Citigroup, told clients in a note Thursday. Citi forecasts Brent could fall as low as $66 per barrel in the third quarter before sinking further to $63 per barrel in the fourth quarter. A senior White House official later told CNBC that the Iran oil sanctions remain in place. But Trump suggested again Wednesday at the NATO summit in The Hague that he would not disrupt flows of Iranian crude oil, an apparent olive branch to help the Islamic Republic rebuild after Israel's bombing campaign. "I could stop it if I wanted," Trump said of Iranian oil to China. "I don't want to do that. They're going to need money to put that country back into shape. We want to see that happen." The president confirmed Friday in a social media post that he had considered sanctions relief for Iran. But Trump said he is leaving the sanctions in place for now after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a defiant speech that angered him. "Instead I get hit with a statement of anger, hatred, and disgust, and immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more," Trump said on Truth Social. "Iran has to get back into the World Order flow, or things will only get worse for them." Ceasefire holding U.S. easing of oil sanctions on Iran will depend on whether the ceasefire with Israel holds. The truce has stood so far, a sign that the situation may have stabilized enough for the U.S. and Iran to resume negotiations over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, said Janiv Shah, vice president of oil market analysis at Rystad Energy. Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. will talk to Iran next week. But White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that no talks are scheduled for now. Iran's foreign minister has said the Islamic Republic has no plans to meet with the U.S. The consulting firm Rapidan Energy sees a 60% chance that the ceasefire holds but no formal agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. The market would hold on to a risk premium of between $2 to $3 per barrel under this scenario. Rapidan sees 30% odds that the truce results in a real deal, which would have a bearish effect over the medium term as the market priced in higher Iranian crude production. The firm only sees a 10% chance that conflict between Iran and Israel erupts again, which would push oil prices higher by $4 to $5 per barrel so long as there isn't a big disruption of crude supplies. Deutsche Bank also expects the ceasefire to hold. Israel has largely accomplished its goals, Iran has few options for retaliation, and the U.S. doesn't want to become more deeply involved in a conflict, analyst Michael Hsueh told clients on Tuesday. "Notwithstanding the delicate nature of the agreement, we believe that incentives are aligned for the ceasefire to hold," Hsueh said.
Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
Mid-Year Outlook: Stocks Back At Highs
With stocks reaching a new high just as the midpoint of the year is reached, it is an opportune time ... More to look at what the second half of the year might hold. As the tariff threat eased and some progress was made on trade agreements, stocks have recovered sharply. The boost from technology and artificial intelligence-related companies was also notably in the rebound. With stocks reaching a new high just as the midpoint of the year is reached, it is an opportune time to look at what the second half of the year might hold. Rather than the traditional outlook, this will be an examination of the risks versus rewards, considering what is currently priced in financial markets. One Chart Tells The Stock Story The massive US tariffs announced on Liberation Day sent the betting odds of recession soaring to 65%, with stocks dragged lower in expectation of lower earnings. As the tariff threat eased and some progress was made on trade agreements, stocks have recovered sharply. The recent 12-day military conflict between Israel and Iran caused concerns about an economically unfriendly oil shock. Still, the US bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities has led to a ceasefire, which has cooled fears. Stocks & Recession Odds The betting odds of recession also tell much of the story about the US 10-year Treasury note yield. Yields fell as fears of an economic downturn rose and have since recovered from the lows, as economic risk appears to have waned. There is more to the story here, as signs suggest that bond markets worldwide are less willing to fund the unfavorable fiscal situations of most countries. Yields & Recession Odds Recent Market Performance Stocks soared last week on the ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war and the agreement around a framework for US-China trade. The S&P 500 surpassed its mid-February high by 0.5% after having declined by almost 20%. The Magnificent 7, comprising Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Tesla (TSLA), has recovered to only 4% below its mid-December level after being as much as 30% under the peak. Apart from the good news on trade and Iran, the strength in US bank stocks was notable. Last week, the annual Federal Reserve (Fed) stress tests for large banks were better than expected. Additionally, the Fed made some changes to the methodology, which are expected to result in fewer Stress Capital Buffers (SCBs) being required for banks in the future. All other things being equal, less need for capital buffers means better profitability. Market Returns Economic Risk The more economically sensitive cyclical stocks have outperformed less economically impacted defensives since stocks bottomed, marking the peak of recession fears. The current situation is back to pricing in a benign, if not downright optimistic, economic backdrop. Economically-Sensitive Versus Defensive Stocks US Stock Valuations Based on the current 24.3 times current earnings and 23.4 times multiple of 2025 estimated earnings, also known as the forward price-to-earnings ratio, stocks do not look cheap relative to the past. However, historically, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has been correlated with return-on-equity (ROE), which measures how efficiently companies generate profits from the capital provided by their shareholders. Although the ROE is down from its recent highs, it remains above average, which argues for an above-average P/E ratio, assuming this elevated ROE is sustainable. Consensus estimates project a return on equity of 18.6% in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026, up from 17.6% in 2024. To provide perspective, the S&P 500's ROE was 15.1% in 2019 before the pandemic. S&P 500: Price-To-Earnings & ROE The composition of the large-cap US stock market is crucial to this improved outlook for ROE since much of the boost has come from technology and artificial intelligence-related companies. Even a simple analysis of the S&P 500 shows that at least 43% of the market capitalization is related to these two areas. Weights In S&P 500 As noted earlier, the exceptional return on equity supports the rich stock valuations, and profit margins are elevated relative to historical levels. Profit margins measure the percentage of top-line sales that are converted into bottom-line profits. As a business owner, higher profit margins, all other things being equal, are more valuable. Notably, the profit margins for the technology sector are almost twice the market. In addition, according to FactSet, technology sector earnings are expected to grow at 18% in 2025, while the S&P 500's earnings are forecast to rise by about 9.1% year-over-year. S&P 500: Profitability Free Cash Flow Matters According to Warren Buffett, 'The value of a business is the cash it's going to produce in the future, discounted back to the present.' Free cash flow measures the cash left over after a company supports its operations and maintains or invests further in its business. Thus, free cash flow provides a good measure of the money accruing to shareholders as owners. The free cash flow yield is calculated by dividing the free cash flow by the stock price. Consistent with the price-to-earnings ratio, the cash flow yield suggests that the stock market is not currently cheap, although it has been more expensive at times in the past. This metric assumes that free cash flow remains static, so it can also be interpreted as indicating that investors have more confidence that free cash flow will continue to grow. Indeed, investors should be willing to pay more for a company in which one can have high confidence that the corporate profits accruing to owners will continue to grow. As a subset of the S&P 500, technology stocks are priced at an even lower free cash flow yield. This valuation premium reflects the optimism about the future of many of these companies and the superior fundamentals of the group as a whole. The profit margins and earnings growth rate for the technology sector have been exceptional, which helps explain the premium valuation assigned by the lower free cash flow yield. One additional wrinkle is the massive capital spending (capex) that Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure. This spending is also depressing the current free cash flow yield for the technology-related stocks on the margin. Massive capital expenditure (capex) spending is often viewed as a red flag for investors, who are typically concerned that the substantial investment will not yield a sufficient return for the companies. However, these four companies are currently being given the benefit of the doubt. S&P 500: Free Cash Flow Yield What To Watch This Week The main of the holiday-shortened trading week will be the monthly jobs report on Thursday. Economists expect June's gain in nonfarm payrolls to slow to 113,000 from 139,000 in May. Notably, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. US Unemployment Rate Given the upward trend in weekly continuing claims for unemployment benefits, the expected uptick in unemployment is a reasonable assumption. The upward trend indicates that the job market has been softening as it is taking longer for those losing their jobs to get a new one. With expectations for the US economy rebounding and the risk of recession decreasing, the resilience of the labor market should be closely monitored. Continuing Claims For Unemployment Benefits Federal Reserve Markets currently expect at least two 25-basis-point (0.25%) Fed cuts in 2025, consistent with the median Fed projection. There is a slight chance of a cut in July, but the first move lower in 2025 is fully priced for September. Fed Rate Cuts Expected Conclusions In the wake of the rebound from the tariff-induced bear market decline in stocks, investors should revisit their risk tolerance, as the robust stock rally over the last couple of years has likely increased their allocation to risk assets. Rebalancing stock and bond allocations toward the target risk level is wise for many investors, especially given the ongoing presence of tariff, geopolitical, and fiscal risks. The key to successful long-term stock investing is staying invested during the inevitable tough times, as rebounds from those bear markets are typically massive and unpredictable in timing, as illustrated by the first half of this year. Stocks are priced for a benign economic outcome and some support from the Federal Reserve in lowering interest rates. Improving corporate profitability, with 9% earnings growth in 2025 and 14% in 2026, is forecasted to normalize currently elevated valuations. This outcome is certainly possible, if not the most probable, but investors should be mindful that the hurdles at these valuation levels are higher. The artificial intelligence wave is a real phenomenon as adoption continues, so the optimistic scenario is not entirely out of the realm of possibility. This optimism should be tempered by the fact that the economy and earnings can always disappoint, especially if the trade war heats up again; therefore, investors should be prepared for possible turbulence.
