Waste Management Q2 2025 Earnings Preview: Volume Growth Faces Pricing Pressure
Consensus anticipates healthy mid-teens top-line growth as commercial and industrial volumes stay firm, yet margin optics will decide the narrative. The Street wants proof that Waste Management's mid-year price increases can outrun higher diesel, labor, and landfill-operating costs while recycling revenue grapples with Old Corrugated Container prices stuck near $70/ton, down about a third from last year. Management has guided 2025 free cash flow of $2.68-$2.78 billion, so any tweak here or to CapEx needed for fleet conversion could sway investor sentiment.
Strategic moves add another layer. Investors will look for early read-outs on the $7.2 billion Stericycle acquisition, which promises over $125 million in annual cost savings within a year of close and opens a higher-margin medical-waste line. Meanwhile, Waste Management is exploring options for its renewable-natural-gas portfolio, a business that could fetch $3 billion and reshape the sustainability CapEx glide-path. Clarity on either front, plus color on landfill gas-to-RNG EBITDA run-rate targets, will help the market judge whether Waste Management can defend its premium multiple through 2025.
With pricing, integration, and portfolio strategy all converging this quarter, even a routine beat may not be enough if cash-flow or synergy timelines slip.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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