
Risks, Uncertainty Cloud Future of Ksi Lisims LNG Facility: IEEFA
With these challenges factored into financial projections, it is "highly unlikely" that the floating gas liquefaction and export terminal can be delivered on budget, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) writes in the report.
Planned for B.C's northern coast, Ksi Lisims would export 12 million tonnes of liquified natural gas per year, supplied by the approved-but not yet built-Prince Rupert Gas Transmission line. It is located on Nisga'a land and backed by a partnership between the Nisga'a Nation, Texas-based Western LNG, and Alberta's Rockies LNG. The project is undergoing environmental assessments and seeking regulatory approvals ahead of a final investment decision expected later this year.
But Ksi Lisims has faced opposition from the start. Last November, Gitanyow Hereditary Chiefs declared plans for an Indigenous Protected and Conserved Area (IPCA) to block the pipeline's route over environmental concerns. The pipeline also crosses rugged terrain and sensitive marine areas, adding engineering and regulatory hurdles, says IEEFA.
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Challenges like these significantly affect Ksi Lisims' financial prospects, suggests IEEFA's analysis.
The project's dependence on the Prince Rupert pipeline for feed gas is a key risk, the report states. B.C. has just recently confirmed that the pipeline permit is viable after it expired last November, but some First Nations have legally challenged it, alleging inadequate consultation and environmental review. Protests led by the Gitananyow Hereditary Chiefs could add more costs, as with past megaprojects like the Coastal GasLink pipeline, writes IEEFA.
Ksi Lisims' developers say they will reduce emissions by powering the facility with renewable hydropower from the B.C. grid, and are targeting net-zero operations. But IEEFA cites uncertainty about securing BC Hydro's electricity supply as another layer of risk, imperilling the facility's net-zero ambitions and thus its regulatory compliance.
"Without hydroelectricity, Ksi Lisims LNG will have to rely on gas-powered turbines which increase project capital costs by approximately C$2 billion," adds IEEFA. The project partners have yet to finalize an agreement with BC Hydro to connect the facility to the North Coast Transmission Line. Meanwhile, other upcoming LNG projects in the province are competing for the same grid capacity.
Net revenue is also questionable given the lack of LNG takers, IEEFA writes, estimating that about 70% of planned production has no dedicated buyer. The twin floating LNG barges planned for the terminal face higher operating costs in harsh marine environments, are largely "unproven in Canadian waters," and will provide few local jobs.
And by the time Ksi Lisims would start supplying LNG-its targeted completion date is in 2029-many similar projects are due to come online across the world, creating a global glut, IEEFA writes.
This oversupply could align with weakening demand-as expanding clean energy capacity and tighter emissions regulations lead to structural declines in LNG use.
Evolving domestic markets could also undermine success, as competition for gas as a feedstock within Canada limits the volumes available for export.
"While project developers praise its potential economic benefits, the viability of the Ksi Lisims project depends on its ability to overcome cost pressures, secure firm purchase commitments, and navigate a highly competitive global LNG market amid uncertainties about demand trends," writes IEEFA.
"At this point, both the project and Canada's broader LNG ambitions remain vulnerable to formidable headwinds."
Source: The Energy Mix
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Winnipeg Free Press
6 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Manitoba signs deal with Saskatchewan to bolster trade through Port of Churchill
Manitoba's experience as a leader in reconciliation will give it a leg up when it comes time for Canada to fast-track megaprojects, Premier Wab Kinew said Tuesday after signing an agreement with Saskatchewan to expand trade through the Port of Churchill. 'We're working a ton on making sure we have consensus with the Indigenous nations for the megaprojects that we want to pursue to build up the Manitoba and Canadian economy,' Kinew said. Twenty-nine First Nations and 12 northern communities own the Arctic Gateway Group, which operates the Port of Churchill and the Hudson Bay Railway that connects it to the rest of the continent. Nathan Denette / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, left, talks with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe at the meeting of Canada's premiers in Huntsville, Ont., Monday. 'This ability to get to tidewater and seemingly having the ability to open that up, maybe, year-round because of newer ships that we have access to today, is really exciting for Manitoba,' Kinew told reporters via a Zoom call from Huntsville, Ont. There, Canada's first ministers are gathering to discuss a strategy to respond to the trade war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump. The memorandum of understanding Kinew signed with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe on Tuesday says the Arctic Gateway Group will invest in port and rail assets and lengthen the shipping season, which typically runs from July to November, to support increased freight capacity. Chris Avery, the chief executive officer of AGG, said they're working with the University of Manitoba and other academic and private-sector groups to update data about the shipping season, which has been getting longer over time. 'What the University of Manitoba tells us is that based on their data from over the past 40 years and what they see in their studies of the sea ice — they expect that the shipping seasons can be lengthened already without icebreakers or anything else, given climate change.' He said U of M is gathering and studying the data, which can be shared with shippers and insurance companies, he said. 'One of the impediments to extending the shipping season is because they're working off of old historical data of the shipping season and the ice patterns and so on.' New data from the U of M indicates the shipping season will be lengthened to as much as six months without the use of icebreakers, Avery said. In February, Manitoba announced $36.4 million would be given to AGG over two years for capital infrastructure projects at the port. The memo of understanding says the province will try to secure federal infrastructure funding and regulatory support to improve connectivity to northern markets, a news release said. 'When we're talking about nation-building, if we help Alberta, Saskatchewan, our other neighbors and fellow provinces and territories access the European Union, that can be really good for all of us.'–Wab Kinew The five-year plan requires Saskatchewan to 'mobilize' commodity producers and exporters through its trade offices and regional industry partners, the release said. Streamlining access to ports such as Churchill will allow for greater access to international markets, Moe said in the release. 'It helps us to unlock mining in the north, more agricultural exports in the south, manufacturing products right across our whole province,' Kinew told reporters Tuesday. 'When we're talking about nation-building, if we help Alberta, Saskatchewan, our other neighbors and fellow provinces and territories access the European Union, that can be really good for all of us.' On Tuesday, Manitoba did not sign an MOU with Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta to use Ontario steel to build an oil and gas pipeline and a port on James Bay as part of a national energy corridor. Manitoba Progressive Conservative Leader Obby Khan said Manitoba 'missed out on a much, much larger opportunity.' 'Why wouldn't you negotiate on the ground floor for a project that could bring massive economic opportunities and prosperity to the province?' Khan asked. Kinew said he's had 'excellent meetings' with the three premiers involved and that he didn't sign their MOU because Manitoba doesn't have the needed consensus from its Indigenous nations to do so. 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'We would love to have the federal government as an enthusiastic partner (but)…the partners that we need are the collective Indigenous nations of Manitoba that are represented by governments.' Kinew said he doesn't want Manitoba to be pitted against other provinces, but noted that Churchill has the advantage over James Bay because it is a long-running northern, deep-water port with infrastructure and Indigenous partners. A supply chain expert who teaches at the U of M Asper School of Business said the proposals for a major port at the far south end of James Bay in Ontario centre on the community of Moosonee, that has port facilities for barges, but not ships that require deep water. Like Churchill, it has rail access but no road, said Robert Parsons. The proposal to develop the James Bay port into an energy corridor 'is really more on the wish-list side,' he said. Parsons compared it to NeeStanNan's proposal to develop a liquefied natural gas terminal at Port Nelson on Hudson Bay in Manitoba. 'Both will require quite a bit of work.' The chief of one of the First Nations behind the Port Nelson LNG proposal welcomed Manitoba's agreement with Saskatchewan to bolster the Port of Churchill. Weekday Mornings A quick glance at the news for the upcoming day. 'Churchill has always been there and we support Churchill and we're also part owners of the railway,' said Clarence Easter of Chemawawin Cree Nation, one of 10 First Nations behind the NeeStaNan energy corridor. NeeStaNan has been licensed by the federal energy regulator to explore the development of exporting liquefied natural gas. Easter said he supports federal legislation to fast-track infrastructure projects such as energy corridors. 'We cannot keep doing things that we've been doing in the past because it hasn't worked before… We can't keep counting on federal handouts, provincial handouts to survive and keep living the way we've been living,' the chief said. 'The opportunity is there for us to step up.' Carol SandersLegislature reporter Carol Sanders is a reporter at the Free Press legislature bureau. The former general assignment reporter and copy editor joined the paper in 1997. Read more about Carol. Every piece of reporting Carol produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press's tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press's history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates. Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber. Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.


Winnipeg Free Press
7 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Career in transition, eye on opportunity
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He's advising his replacement, David Harney, on how to steer the international company and its many subsidiaries. He sat down to reflect in a wide-ranging interview with the Free Press. 'It's been a really good transition,' said Mahon, who started with Great-West Lifeco in 1986. When he became president in 2013, the company had $582 billion in consolidated assets under administration. It had just announced its $1.75 billion purchase of Irish Life, an Ireland-based life insurance, pension and investment provider. Canada Life — the country's first life insurance company — and London Life were already under Great-West Lifeco's umbrella. It had 20,000 staff and at least 12 million Canadian customers. The parent company now counts more than 40 million customers globally. It employs some 32,000 people, including 13,000 Canadians. Manitobans account for 3,600 staffers, making Great-West Lifeco one of the province's biggest employers. 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Management attended a Great-West Lifeco event where employees showcased their AI usage science fair-style. Harney studied artificial intelligence before it exploded in the public zeitgeist, Mahon said. 'I think AI will be a tool to make us more efficient and more effective,' he added. 'But I think it has to be balanced with those … personal relationships.' 'We want to make sure that we're investing in companies that will thrive 10, 20, 30 years into the future.'– Paul Mahon Such relationships are key in call centres and service roles, Mahon said. 'You (might) need less people doing one thing,' he said. 'At the same time, you're going to need more technology experts. 'When a company is large and growing, it creates opportunities.' Great-West Lifeco has grown at an 'unprecedented' level in the insurance industry, said Bram Strain, the Business Council of Manitoba's president. Canada Life is a council member; Mahon sits on the entity's board. 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Every piece of reporting Gabrielle produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press's tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press's history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates. Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber. Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.


Toronto Star
8 hours ago
- Toronto Star
CN Rail lowers earnings expectations, cuts outlook amid trade volatility
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