With Donald Trump Turning On Allies, Is The Quad At Risk?

News18

4 days ago

The US President needs to understand that while the MAGA economy may help push domestic manufacturing in the US, it comes at the cost of America's allies
On 30 July 2025, US President Donald Trump delivered a devastating blow to one of America's most critical strategic partnerships. In a Truth Social post that sent shockwaves through New Delhi, Trump announced a punitive 25 per cent tariff on all Indian imports, coupled with unspecified penalties targeting India's energy and defence trade with Russia.
The move marks the highest tariff rate imposed on any Asian nation, significantly exceeding the levies on Vietnam (20 per cent) and Indonesia (19 per cent). However, tariffs on India also point to a deepening distrust among American allies in Asia and, as a result, undermine strategic multilateral partnerships — prime among them, the Quad. The imposition of tariffs constitutes a fundamental betrayal of the strategic trust that underpins the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.
The timing of the announcement could hardly be more damaging. India had been among the first nations to engage Washington in trade negotiations when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the White House earlier this year. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal had expressed optimism just days earlier about concluding a 'consequential partnership".
But Trump's decision to impose the harshest Asian tariff regime on India — despite months of active negotiations and India's role as a cornerstone of America's Indo-Pacific strategy — reveals the transactional brutality that now characterises US alliance management.
India's response to Trump's ultimatum reflects both diplomatic restraint and steel. 'The Government will take all steps necessary to secure our national interest," the statement declared, whilst reaffirming India's commitment to 'protecting and promoting the welfare of our farmers, entrepreneurs, and MSMEs".
By explicitly prioritising national interests, as the government should, over American pressure, India has shown its unwillingness to open up core economic sectors, particularly agriculture and dairy. Piyush Goyal underlined in his response today that even when negotiations resume, even in the face of 25 per cent tariffs, when faced with American bullying — even if it comes in the form of Trump — India will negotiate from a position of strength and will not compromise the security of its farmers at any cost.
The measured tone stands in stark contrast to how the American President announced the tariffs: ranting. It must have irritated Trump to his core, hence his follow-up rant on 'dead economies".
Whilst tariffs were anticipated, the severity of the 25 per cent levy, combined with additional penalties, represented an unfavourable deal that exceeded worst-case scenarios. This betrayal of expectations, particularly given India's early engagement in trade talks, fundamentally alters the trust equation between the two nations.
Trump's assault also accelerates India's pursuit of alternative partnerships and markets. The government's statement explicitly referenced its comprehensive trade agreement with the UK, signalling confidence in diversifying beyond American-dominated frameworks. India's participation in BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and bilateral partnerships, along with advanced FTA talks with the EU and ASEAN nations, reduces dependence on any single power.
Trump's tariff offensive extends far beyond India, systematically undermining every Quad partner. Japan faces a 15 per cent tariff deal that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has characterised as disappointing, whilst Australia confronts baseline steel and aluminium levies despite its AUKUS commitments.
Trump's coordinated economic assault on America's closest Indo-Pacific allies reveals a fundamental contradiction in his approach: demanding strategic cooperation whilst inflicting economic punishment, and at the same time withering under pressure when China bit back. Perhaps that is the only way to deal with this belligerent US President, who seems bent on dragging American diplomacy back to the early 1900s.
The economic impact on India could prove devastating, with economists projecting GDP growth reductions of 20–50 basis points if the tariffs remain in place — a prospect that may well define this era of Trump's so-called Taco policy.
The threat extends across India's most competitive export sectors, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, gems and jewellery, and electronics — industries that collectively employ millions and represent India's manufacturing ambitions. Trump's additional penalties targeting India's Russian energy imports could further compound these costs, potentially forcing refiners to abandon discounted crude that has supported profitability.
However, industry leaders have spoken out, and the pharmaceutical sector has particularly refuted the notion that tariffs will hurt it, noting that exports to the US account for only 0.3 per cent.
For Japan, the frustration centres on steel exports and automotive components, sectors where Japanese companies have invested heavily in US-oriented production. Australia's concerns focus on steel and aluminium tariffs that could undermine industrial partnerships developed through decades of alliance cooperation. The cumulative effect creates a crisis of confidence in American economic partnerships across the Indo-Pacific.
While polls conducted by the Lowy Institute last month suggest continued public support for alliance relationships, with 80 per cent of Australians backing the US alliance and nearly 90 per cent of Japanese supporting the partnership, trust in American reliability has plummeted dramatically. Only 36 per cent of Australians now trust the United States, representing the lowest figure ever recorded, whilst Japanese confidence in American defence commitments has collapsed from over 40 per cent to just 15 per cent.
Trump's ultimatum places India in an impossible strategic position. The timing of economic coercion coincides with tentative improvements in India–China relations following recent border agreements. While China cannot be trusted in the long run, it could be the piece of wood that helps us float through this phase of the self-acclaimed era of American renaissance.
The Military Dimension
Trump's administration seeks to militarise the Quad relationship in ways that contradict India's strategic culture and practical constraints. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's emphasis on China as 'the defining challenge of this century" implies expectations of military alignment that India cannot fulfil without compromising core interests.
India's resistance to military alliance structures reflects both historical experience and contemporary strategic requirements. The nation's doctrine of strategic autonomy emerged from Non-Aligned Movement principles that prioritised independence of action over alliance dependence. Contemporary applications of this doctrine enable India to engage simultaneously with American, Russian, and Chinese partners, whilst avoiding the constraints of formal military commitments.
The geographic reality of India's position reinforces these preferences. Unlike maritime allies who can project power at safe distances from Chinese territory, India confronts China across disputed land borders — measuring 3,488 kilometres — where miscalculation could trigger immediate military escalation.
The Quad's Survival Paradox
The United States seeks strategic cooperation against China, but it inflicts economic punishment on the very partners essential for this competition. It undermines the trust and mutual benefit that effective alliances require. The result: partners drift towards the adversaries America seeks to contain.
The Quad's survival depends on recognising these contradictions, and the US President needs to understand that while the MAGA economy may help push domestic manufacturing in the US, it comes at the cost of America's allies in the East and leaves Asia in a weaker position than ever before.
India's measured response demonstrates a continued commitment to strategic cooperation, whilst defending core national interests. However, sustained American economic coercion could force India to prioritise alternative partnerships that offer genuine reciprocity rather than subordination.
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The ultimate irony of Trump's strategy lies in its potential to achieve China's objectives through American actions. By fragmenting alliances, undermining partner confidence, and forcing strategic realignments, Trump's approach risks creating the very strategic isolation that Chinese leaders have long sought to achieve. The Quad's survival requires American recognition that effective alliance management demands partnership, not dominance — a lesson that Trump's transactional worldview seems incapable of accommodating.
Whether the Quad can survive Trump's assault on this fundamental principle will determine not only the alliance's future but the broader trajectory of Indo-Pacific strategic competition.
About the Author
Sohil Sinha
Sohil Sinha is a Sub Editor at News18. He writes on foreign affairs, geopolitics along with domestic policy and infrastructure projects.
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donald trump quad leaders tariffs
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New Delhi, India, India
First Published:
August 01, 2025, 11:22 IST
News opinion Opinion | With Donald Trump Turning On Allies, Is The Quad At Risk?
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