Should You Buy Lucid Group (LCID) Stock Before Aug. 5? Here's What History Says
Lucid Group has already reported vehicle production and delivery numbers for the second quarter, but will publish full Q2 results on Aug. 5.
The company has historically seen big sell-offs following its earnings reports.
Past performance can't predict what will happen to Lucid stock after earnings, but its share price could make a big move.
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Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) stock saw a big pop last month after the company announced that it had entered into a robotaxi partnership with Uber Technologies. Uber will purchase 20,000 or more of the automaker's vehicles over the next six years and use them as key components of its robotaxi fleet. Lucid's share price has since had a substantial pullback.
There will soon be another big potential catalyst that could spur substantial moves for the stock. The electric-vehicle (EV) specialist is set to release its second-quarter report and host an earnings conference call after the market closes on Aug. 5, and investors will be taking a close look at its margins and bottom line.
If you're wondering what history says about your chances of success with buying Lucid's stock ahead of earnings, take a look at the chart below and read on for a deeper look at dynamics that could shape the company's valuation.
Lucid's stock has historically struggled after earnings
As the chart above shows, it's historically been a bad move to buy Lucid's shares ahead of the company's earnings reports. Most of its quarterly releases have corresponded with big sell-offs for the stock, and the EV specialist's share price is now down roughly 87% over the last three years. Sales and earnings performances have generally come in below the levels needed to spur gains for the stock:
LCID Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts.
Lucid has posted large losses across its history as a publicly traded company. At the same time, the business's sales growth has been very uneven after an initial ramp-up period.
Heading into the upcoming earnings report, the business has recorded a net loss of roughly $2.4 billion on sales of roughly $870 million across the trailing-12-month (TTM) period. In other words, Lucid has lost roughly $2.76 for every $1 in revenue that it's generated over that stretch. There are good reasons to think that losses will continue to come in at high levels for the foreseeable future.
Will Lucid stock see another sell-off after the Q2 report?
Because Lucid announces its vehicle production and delivery numbers after each quarter, investors already have some key insights into what to expect with the second-quarter report. In the update it published at the beginning of July, the company announced that it had produced 3,863 vehicles and delivered 3,309 vehicles in Q2. For comparison, it produced 2,110 vehicles and delivered 2,394 vehicles in last year's second quarter.
The rollout of the Gravity SUV has helped spur a significant uptick in production and deliveries, but the stock could see a big pullback if the upcoming Q2 report arrives with a wider-than-expected loss. Lucid's path to profitability hinges on achieving economies of scale that allow it to shift into posting positive gross margins on each vehicle sold, and then continuing on that track until it can deliver positive operating income margins. As things stand, it currently costs the company far more to produce each one of its vehicles than is recouped through a sale.
Historically, Lucid Group's earnings reports have arrived with wide losses that have driven sell-offs for the stock. Given that shares already trade at a severely beaten-down price compared to where they were a few years ago, there's no guarantee that this dynamic will play out again after the next earnings report -- but investors will likely be looking to see that Lucid has a feasible path to eventually delivering big margin improvements.
Should you invest $1,000 in Lucid Group right now?
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Efficiency Ratio Guidance -- Management stated that efficiency ratio guidance remains unchanged. Share Repurchases -- The company continues "to execute buybacks as part of a multiyear glide path to our 12%," with flexibility to adjust the pace. Net Interest Margin Guidance -- Outlook for core net interest margin updated to 3.85% for the second half of 2025, reflecting anticipated effects from two forecasted interest rate cuts and a two-basis-point-per-quarter headwind from the Upstart portfolio sale in Q2 2025 and subsequent quarters. Cash Connect Insurance Recovery -- Recorded a $1.6 million one-time insurance recovery in Q2 2025, primarily related to a terminated client event from Q4 2024. Cash Connect Price Increases -- Pricing initiatives underway are expected to deliver about $1 million in pretax benefit for the year, with further increases planned. Buyback Capital Impact -- The pace of buybacks in the first half did not materially affect the common equity tier 1 ratio, supported by strong internal capital generation and a reduction in risk-weighted assets. Summary WSFS Financial (NASDAQ:WSFS) reported sequential improvements in all core profitability metrics, including core earnings per share of $1.27, up from Q1 2025, core return on assets of 1.3%, up from Q1 2025, and core return on tangible common equity of 18.03%, up from Q1 2025. Management highlighted a nine basis point decline in total funding costs and robust growth in fee revenue segments, particularly within wealth (17% year-over-year growth) and institutional services (39% year-over-year growth). The unwind of a key wealth advisory partnership was cited as creating short-term revenue pressures, with longer-term opportunities identified for franchise expansion and product diversification. 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Core Net Interest Margin (NIM): The ratio of a bank's net interest income (excluding certain nonrecurring items) to interest-earning assets, reflecting profitability on its core lending and funding activities. Upstart Portfolio: Refers to a specific group of loans originated in partnership with Upstart Holdings, which the company has been strategically exiting. Cash Connect: The company's cash logistics and ATM services division, providing vault cash, ATM services, and related solutions. Bryn Mawr Trust Company of Delaware: The Delaware-based trust subsidiary acquired as part of the company's wealth management segment. Efficiency Ratio: A bank's noninterest expense as a percentage of revenue, used to assess cost management and operational efficiency. Full Conference Call Transcript During the second quarter, WSFS Financial Corporation performed well as we continue to demonstrate the strength of our franchise and diverse business model. Results included a core earnings per share of $1.27, core return on assets of 1.3%, and core return on tangible common equity of 18.03%. All of these metrics are up versus the first quarter. Core net interest margin expanded one basis point to 3.89%. This reflects a reduction in total funding costs of nine basis points, with a deposit beta of 43% for the quarter. These reductions were partially offset by lower loan yields primarily driven by the announced Upstart sale, which accelerated the disposition of a nonstrategic portfolio that has been in runoff. Core fee revenue grew 9% quarter over quarter driven by broad-based growth across a number of businesses including wealth, capital markets, and mortgage. Our wealth business grew 17% year over year led by 39% growth in institutional services, and 7% in the Bryn Mawr Trust Company of Delaware. Total client deposits increased 1% linked quarter driven by an increase in trust deposits. On a year-over-year basis, client deposits grew 5% driven by growth across consumer, commercial, and trust. Importantly, noninterest deposits grew 11% year over year and now represent over 30%. David Burg: We decided to unwind a wealth advisory partnership with Commonwealth Financial Network as a result of Commonwealth's announced sale to LPL Financial. While these transactions will result in some near-term revenue headwinds, they create important strategic opportunities to broaden our product offering and expand our wealth franchise. We expect our overall fee revenue will grow low single digits as Cash Connect revenues are expected to decline primarily as a result of interest rate reductions and lower volume. As a reminder, the interest rate fee revenue decline is more than offsetting Cash Connect funding costs, resulting in a higher profit margin. Net charge-offs are expected to be between 35 to 45 basis points of average loans for the year, excluding the full impact of Upstart, which has at this point largely been divested. Our commercial portfolio continues to perform well, but losses may remain uneven. Our outlook for efficiency remains unchanged at approximately 60%, and we will continue to leverage opportunities to invest in the franchise while prudently managing our expense base. Lastly, as we have seen on slide nine of the earnings supplement, we will continue to execute buybacks as part of a multiyear glide path to our 12%, while retaining discretion to adjust the pace based on the macro environment, business performance, or potential investment opportunities that we see. We are very excited about the future and remain committed to delivering high performance. Thank you, and we'll now open the line for questions. Operator: Your first question comes from the line of Russell Gunther with Stephens. Please go ahead. Russell Gunther: Hey, good afternoon, guys. Maybe could we start on the loan growth discussion? I hear you on what your overall expectations for commercial are for this year. It was a great C&I quarter, so it'd be helpful to just get some big picture takes on what your expectations are for that asset class, how you're thinking about paydowns as a potential headwind continuing going forward. And then just any sentiment shift you could share from your commercial borrowers, whether or not tariffs are still an overhang or has the environment improved for them at all? That would be a great place to start. Thank you. David Burg: Sure, Russell. So I'll kick off. So I think what I would say, importantly, is that we are focused on accretive loan growth. And so as you know, we really value the C&I relationship model, and we value our kind of C&I franchise. And so I think what you'll see us continue to lead into C&I. We did have solid originations in commercial real estate and construction. We did have other payoffs. And, you know, we are very selective in terms of our originations in commercial real estate focusing on high-quality sponsors where we have strong relationships. We are not going to chase things on price and maintaining our profit margins. So, you know, I think the focus for us continues to be around C&I growth, but we expect growth across both the C&I and commercial real estate franchise. But, you know, we will continue to lean into C&I going forward. Rodger Levenson: Hey, Russell. It's Rodger. Let me just add some color on what I have been hearing from customers and clients when I'm out and about as it relates to tariffs. I think that there's certainly some level of uncertainty in how this all plays out and the timing of that. But we've noticed with the passage of time, I think it's kind of settling in a little bit post, you know, April 2. And so I'd say we see a mild uptick in optimism with our borrowers moving forward with some projects that they've been put on hold. I wouldn't declare it as any significant change. But so far, because it's really been very little impact to anybody, I think it's starting to change the dynamic for some people in terms of moving ahead. All to be determined by what ultimately gets, you know, plays out. But I'd say the sentiment is moving a little bit in the positive direction. Russell Gunther: Okay. That's great, guys. Thank you both. And then, on the expense side of things, you know, I appreciate the core efficiency ratio guide here and unchanged for the year. David, it'd be helpful to get a sense for how you think about the second quarter shaping up as a potential run rate. We could think about, you know, potential revenue-related seasonality or merit increases. I know you mentioned Cash Connect and the offset that we could see in the bottom line. So maybe help us with the glide path quarter to quarter if you could. David Burg: Sure. Happy to, Russell. So, yeah, backing up a little bit to the first quarter, you know, as you may recall, I think the first quarter had some onetime benefits and some timing-related issues, which is why you see the jump to the second quarter. So I think this quarter, the number that you see here, is a pretty good run rate to use for future growth. I think it may tick up a little bit just with kind of BAU activity and BAU hiring into the back half of the year. But generally off of the run rate that you see this quarter is a good number to work from. Russell Gunther: Okay. Excellent. Thank you, David. And then last one for me, guys. You know, you bought back a bunch of stock. You barely put a dent in that CET one. You guys make a ton of money. You know, I know it's a multiyear target. But what piece of it, if any, do you expect either traditional, depository M&A, or M&A within your fee verticals to play a role in working that lower? Rodger Levenson: Yeah. So I'll take that, Russell. You know, obviously, we're going at the buybacks hard because of the excess capital, which we walked everybody through last quarter. And we will continue to do that. But as we always said, our first option for excess capital is to invest in the business. And so if those opportunities come along, whether they're in our fee businesses or the traditional banking business, we will certainly consider those. I think we have a little bit of a leaning on the fee business side, particularly the wealth and trust franchise because we see such great growth potential there. But we're open to it across the entire franchise. I would say on the traditional banking business, you know, we continue to see nice organic growth from this unique position we have in our market. So the bar would be high. But we're open to it if it would be additive and consistent with our strategic plan. Russell Gunther: Thank you, Rodger, and thank you both for taking my question. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Manuel Navas with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead. Manuel Navas: What about some potential upside on the NIM in the back half of the year? It seems like the guide has a little bit of a trail down, so I was kind of wondering about the exit NIM. And where could it be upside? You've been really good at controlling deposit costs. Just wanted to start there. David Burg: Sure. And while you broke up a little bit in the beginning, I think you were asking about the NIM in the back half of the year, the run rate, and where the upside could be. Right? Manuel Navas: Yes. That is correct. Sorry about that. David Burg: Alright. Thanks. No problem at all. So yeah. So I think, as you saw, let me give you the puts and takes there. But the NIM run rate that we had in the first couple of quarters was around 3.88, 3.89. We increased our guidance to 3.85, and that implies a little bit lower NIM in the second half of the year. And that's driven really by a couple of things. Primarily, it's the interest rate cuts that we have now baked into the forecast. So we have one cut in September and an additional cut in December. The December one is not going to have a huge impact, but obviously, we'll have the full quarter for the September cut. And, you know, our impact per interest rate cut and I would say temporary impact, immediate impact is about a two to three basis point impact to our NIM from every 25 basis point interest rate cut. But that is not I would say that's an impact in the first one or two quarters. But as our beta catches up, I think we'd look to mitigate that NIM impact from two to three basis points to one basis point. So the reason why you see a little bit softer NIM in the back half of the year is really because of timing of the cuts. As we get into next year, again, assuming no other cuts, we will need to largely mitigate that impact. In terms of I would say that's one component. The second component is as you saw, we did sell our Upstart portfolio. That portfolio has been in runoff, as you know. But for the next couple of quarters, the impact of that portfolio relative to the run rate of the second quarter would be about two basis points of NIM. That would be a declining number because of the portfolio running off, but the immediate impact in the next couple of quarters is two basis points per quarter. So the combination of those two things gets us to a little bit softer run rate. Offsetting that, to your point, we continue to obviously do everything we can around deposit pricing, repricing. We've exceeded our beta target. Our target was 40. We got up to 43% this quarter. We still have some natural CD runoff that's going to the majority of our CD portfolio is in a six-month, so there's not which is priced at 4%, so there's not a huge repricing around the six-month, but we still have some longer-dated CDs that are rolling off. So we'll have another quarter benefit there. And, you know, our securities portfolio the rollover of our securities portfolio into loans or into other securities, frankly, will give us about four basis points a year of uplift. So, you know, we still have some repricing levers to pull. The securities portfolio is going to give us a constant kind of four basis points per year. So those are certainly important mitigates. Manuel Navas: I appreciate that commentary. Just jumping back for the on the buyback piece, there's been a portion of your buyback, and you generally have been price agnostic. But it's been substantial this quarter and in the first quarter. How much does pricing impact your thought process from here? And how do you think about that pricing? Do you include AOCI recovery in that price? And just how has that shifted over time? David Burg: Yeah. So as you said, we definitely increased the pace of buybacks in the first half of the year. We took advantage of the lower price opportunity of the lower price in our stock in the industry. What was happening in April, we took advantage of that to really lean into buybacks. So to the extent that we see those price declines, we'll continue to do that. But as Rodger said, generally, regardless of price, our goal is that in a gradual glide path, if we don't see opportunities to invest that capital in the business, is always the first option, we will look to return that capital. And we'll look to return that capital through buybacks gradually. Obviously, taking into account AOCI risk, taking into account what's happening in the environment, we're always going to keep an eye on not just CET one, but also TCE to make sure that we're being prudent around AOCI. But all else being equal, we're going to look to continue to deploy the capital through buybacks and have that gradual pass down. And we think that's the right decision. Again, second to it, having an investment in the business and opportunity there. Manuel Navas: Thank you. I mean, you were able to do this amount of buybacks and your CET one did barely change. David Burg: Yeah. That's exactly right. I mean, obviously, we generate a good amount of capital. So that's really important and accretive to us. I would say number two, there are a couple of other effects. Our risk-weighted assets ticked down a little bit this quarter. When our AOCI goes down, the deferred tax asset associated with that is in our risk-weighted asset at 250% risk weight, so we get a benefit there. And it also depends on the balance sheet growth that you're going to. So depending on balance sheet growth, you'll see that capital impacted more or less depending on those factors. Manuel Navas: I appreciate the commentary. Thank you. Operator: Thanks, Manuel. And our final question comes from the line of Kelly Motta with KBW. Charlie: This is Charlie on for Kelly. Thanks for the question. David Burg: Hi, Charlie. Charlie: In terms of expenses, it seemed like more of a run ratable quarter. Does that kind of still hold true? I know last quarter was a little low, and then you had the Cash Connect recovery. Maybe you could update us on the details of that process and then more broadly just how you're thinking about expenses going forward. David Burg: Sure. So let me start with Cash Connect. So in Cash Connect, you're right. We had a $1.6 million onetime insurance recovery in this quarter. The vast majority of that recovery relates to the client termination that you may remember that we had in the fourth quarter of last year. So I think it's a very positive sign that we were able to have that recovery. And as part of our normal course of business, we tend to be able to recover most of our losses in that business. So I think that's a validation of the way that we've been running that franchise. So that was a onetime benefit in expenses. I would say other than that, this is a good run ratable quarter for us. The first quarter had timing benefits and again had about a $4 million one-timer related to our incentive compensation true-ups. But this is a good quarter for us. You'll see us continue to invest in the business and continue to grow both from a technology perspective. We'll continue to invest. We'll continue to invest in talent. So you'll continue to see us grow, but at a model level from here. But this is a good run rate quarter. And I would say, Charlie, the way we generally think about that we as we've said before, is we're managing the business not just for the short term, but we're managing this business for growth. And so as we see disruptions in the market, opportunities to acquire talent particularly in wealth, in our commercial business where we've recently hired a number of relationship managers, we'll definitely lean in and continue to do that. And so sometimes that creates timing mismatches between expenses and revenue. But we think that's the right decision for the franchise, and we'll definitely continue to do. Charlie: That's great. Thank you. And then in terms of Cash Connect more broadly, last quarter, mentioned some price increases that could drive some better profitability but offsetting like softer volumes. Then lower rates are also a factor. Just wondering kind of like net if you're seeing progress in driving profit margins in Cash Connect? David Burg: Yeah. We are. If you strip out that $1.6 million onetime benefit, this quarter, you can see that our pretax margin our net income would be up a little bit versus the prior quarter, and our margin would be up a little bit. When you look across the year, Cash Connect's margin, if you normalize out the client termination last year in the fourth quarter, our margin would have been in the mid-single digits and will be towards the higher single digits this year. We're above 8%, and our goal is to push that into the teens. And so, like you said, the focus is really we're implementing pricing increases. Some of that has already been implemented. There's more to come from that. So we expect about a million-dollar pretax benefit this year from that, and there's more to come. Interest rates, as you know, also help profitability. We get about $300,000 to $400,000 of pretax benefit for every rate cut. But the headwind in that business has been some of the client terminations, some of the events that have happened, and some volumes as that industry consolidates a bit. But we still think again, the goal is to drive profit margin. We still feel good about that. And from a market share perspective, we still think we can still extract growth not a fast-growing industry, but we still think there's growth there that we can go after. Charlie: Okay. Understood. That's great. And then finally, for me, just circling back to the margin outlook, you guys raised it in the back half of the year. Just wondering, kind of looking out further, into 2026 if you expect to have some of the same tailwinds with the deposit repricing and the betas there if there's a little more pressure just thoughts, like, looking out further at the margin. Thank you. David Burg: Yeah. As you know, we've not given 2026 guidance. So our goal is to continue to perform at the top quintile relative to our peers. That's what we continue to drive to. Our goal is to continue to push that ROA up. We will have some temporary impacts from interest rate cuts. But we'll look to mitigate that. And we think that we expect to continue to grow our fee businesses, which are very accretive to ROA. And so our goal is definitely to continue to drive that margin up. Charlie: Okay. Thank you. I'll step back. David Burg: Thanks, Charlie. Operator: Thank you. And with no further questions in queue, I will turn the conference back over to you, David. David Burg: Okay, great. Thank you very much, everyone. We appreciate your time and joining the call. And if you have any specific follow-up questions, feel free to reach out to Andrew and me, and have a great day and a weekend. Rodger Levenson: Thanks, everybody. Charlie: Bye-bye. Operator: Thank you for joining today's conference. You may now disconnect. Where to invest $1,000 right now When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. 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